Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

REGISTER
Subscribe to FTR web feed
Already Registered?      Username:    Password:   Remember      Forgot Password

Poker Forum

  > 

All Other (Limit) Poker

  > 

Dubious turn situation.

  
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
dsaxton
Old 12-12-2005, 12:45 AM     Post subject: Dubious turn situation. #1 (permalink)  
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
dsaxton
This guy was a calling station before the flop, and only very mildly aggressive but also somewhat passive after the flop. I hadn't really seen him play too many hands.

He paused for almost 10 seconds before calling this on the flop, and I figured he probably limped with K or A high and was trying to rationalize calling my bet with no pair. Then suddenly I get raised on the turn, do you call or reraise?

PokerStars Game #3308064102: Hold'em Limit ($5/$10) - 2005/12/11 - 20:23:40 (ET)
Table 'Delphinus IV' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Jappelapp ($123 in chips)
Seat 2: Akiames ($432.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Makalaster ($201 in chips)
Seat 4: Romes23 ($130.50 in chips)
Seat 5: dsaxton ($167 in chips)
Seat 6: AZRH ($194 in chips)
Romes23: posts small blind $2
dsaxton: posts big blind $5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dsaxton [4d 6c]
AZRH: calls $5
Jappelapp: calls $5
Akiames: folds
Makalaster: folds
Romes23: calls $3
dsaxton: checks
*** FLOP *** [5d 6s 6h]
Romes23: checks
dsaxton: bets $5
AZRH: folds
Jappelapp: calls $5
Romes23: folds
*** TURN *** [5d 6s 6h] [3d]
dsaxton: bets $10
Jappelapp: raises $10 to $20
dsaxton: ???
Reply With Quote

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
elipsesjeff
Old 12-12-2005, 01:25 AM #2 (permalink)  
elipsesjeff's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point
 Reraise! But call down to a cap, unless you improve. The only possible hands I can put him on here that beat you are 55, 33 and A6s. Each one you have some redraw outs and, if he does cap then you're probably behind. I'm pretty sure he doesn't think you have the 6 because you didn't 'slow play' it.

Basically, I'm paying off a better hand here, and probably pretty hard.


Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
 
Reply With Quote
dsaxton
Old 12-12-2005, 01:42 AM #3 (permalink)  
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
dsaxton
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Reraise! But call down to a cap, unless you improve. The only possible hands I can put him on here that beat you are 55, 33 and A6s. Each one you have some redraw outs and, if he does cap then you're probably behind. I'm pretty sure he doesn't think you have the 6 because you didn't 'slow play' it.

Basically, I'm paying off a better hand here, and probably pretty hard.
If I'm right and I'm ahead, I perhaps win another bet, but don't I risk losing two when I'm wrong, which is often the case in situations like these? I think calling might be the correct play.

What hand do you put him on after his turn raise?
Reply With Quote
elipsesjeff
Old 12-12-2005, 02:33 AM #4 (permalink)  
elipsesjeff's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
If I'm right and I'm ahead, I perhaps win another bet, but don't I risk losing two when I'm wrong, which is often the case in situations like these?
If you call down and you are wrong, you miss potentially two bets as well, the reraise on the turn and his call on the river as he may check behind.

So, assess the probability that you are behind, ahead, or even then work out the net expectation of the play:

Behind and you reraise: You lose two bets more than normal.

Behind, you reraise and suckout (roughly between 7-15 outs): You get 2-4 bets more than usual.

Ahead and you call: You lose two bets more than you could have.

Ahead and you raise: You get an extra Bet.



More importantly, it depends on the likelihood that you are behind here. With a hidden trips on the board and a nice OESD redraw, you are more likely to be good here than behind, especially with no read.

A common play I've noticed recently is a lot of opponents making semibluf raises on the turn and checking behind the river instead of calling down on both streets.

Quote:
What hand do you put him on after his turn raise?
Seriously, he could have anything. A slowplayed overpair, OESD, a nasty straight, a 6 higher than yours, even A5 or something. If you do get capped, you can be sure you're behind, either another 6 or a boat but you have redraws to both.


Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
 
Reply With Quote
pokerfanatic
Old 12-12-2005, 03:06 AM #5 (permalink)  
pokerfanatic's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
pokerfanatic
Send a message via AIM to pokerfanatic
easy 3 bet to me... trips with a OESD... shit!!!
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
 
Reply With Quote
dsaxton
Old 12-12-2005, 03:42 AM #6 (permalink)  
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
dsaxton
I don't think my having a straight draw really influences the decision much. On the turn the straight draw doesn't really offer enough equity to turn a losing hand into a winning one. I think I have to decide whether or not I have the best hand based on my trips alone and play accordingly.

The question is how often trip 6's with a 4 kicker is good here given this action from a usually passive opponent. Again, what hands would an ordinary loose-passive player bet like this?
Reply With Quote
elipsesjeff
Old 12-12-2005, 03:56 AM #7 (permalink)  
elipsesjeff's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
I don't think my having a straight draw really influences the decision much. On the turn the straight draw doesn't really offer enough equity to turn a losing hand into a winning one. I think I have to decide whether or not I have the best hand based on my trips alone and play accordingly.
Why? It gives you an extra 8 outs to anyone who holds a kicker higher than yours, which is an additional like 18% chance to win. Otherwise, you automatically put him on 55 or 33 here, which is too small a range to put on this guy given the amount of limited action on this board..

Considering that 1) You may be ahead, 2) you have folding equity, 3)you have good redraw and 4) this guy could be an idiot, I see no reason to NOT raise this hand.


Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
 
Reply With Quote
dsaxton
Old 12-12-2005, 04:06 AM #8 (permalink)  
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
dsaxton
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
I don't think my having a straight draw really influences the decision much. On the turn the straight draw doesn't really offer enough equity to turn a losing hand into a winning one. I think I have to decide whether or not I have the best hand based on my trips alone and play accordingly.
Why? It gives you an extra 8 outs to anyone who holds a kicker higher than yours, which is an additional like 18% chance to win. Otherwise, you automatically put him on 55 or 33 here, which is too small a range to put on this guy given the amount of limited action on this board..

Considering that 1) You may be ahead, 2) you have folding equity, 3)you have good redraw and 4) this guy could be an idiot, I see no reason to NOT raise this hand.
A reason not to raise is that this action from a passive player usually suggests trips with no kicker is beaten, and because I'm risking two bets to win one. Again, what hands does a passive player typically bet like this? I don't think it's sufficient to just say to yourself "Dude, I totally have 3 6's, raise!" in situations like this.

My trips are either ahead, or they aren't. 8 additional outs against trips with a higher kicker doesn't give me the best hand. It's nice to have redraws, but why do I need to charge myself to draw?
Reply With Quote
KoRnholio
Old 12-12-2005, 04:43 AM #9 (permalink)  
KoRnholio's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
KoRnholio will become famous soon enough
 I've seen people play a limped pocket pair (77-TT) the same way. From his point of view, often one of the blinds will bet at a 566 board with 5x. He just calls the flop since he's last to act (other than the SB) and will likely be heads up with you on the turn, with position. Then he raises when a low card comes off.

Easy 3-bet on the turn. And like was said, if he caps, then check-call the river unless you improve.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
Reply With Quote
elipsesjeff
Old 12-12-2005, 04:49 AM #10 (permalink)  
elipsesjeff's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
A reason not to raise is that this action from a passive player usually suggests trips with no kicker is beaten, and because I'm risking two bets to win one. Again, what hands does a passive player typically bet like this? I don't think it's sufficient to just say to yourself "Dude, I totally have 3 6's, raise!" in situations like this.

My trips are either ahead, or they aren't. 8 additional outs against trips with a higher kicker doesn't give me the best hand. It's nice to have redraws, but why do I need to charge myself to draw?
You're simplifying it too much. You still havent given me any probabilities on how good you think your hand is. The reason why I think your hand here is good more than not is because you have hidden your hand very well. 5/10 6 max a lot of players will make semibluff raises on the turn, but not actually have the hand. Here's a similar hand:

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, 4.
2 folds, MP2 raises, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) J, 5, 4 (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) K (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, CO folds, Hero 3-bets, MP2 calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14.75 BB

Results in white below:
MP2 has Ac Qs (flush, king high).
Hero has 4d 4h (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: MP2 wins 14.75 BB.

He caps with the flush on the turn in my example. Raising scare cards is not uncommon. I think you overestimate the intelligence of your opponent.


Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
 
Reply With Quote
dsaxton
Old 12-12-2005, 05:08 AM #11 (permalink)  
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
dsaxton
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
You still havent given me any probabilities on how good you think your hand is.
I don't have exact numbers, but I usually give ordinarily passive players credit for a hand when they suddenly show strength, especially when they just call with an open pair on the flop, then suddenly raise the turn.

I'm not really overestimating his intelligence. I don't think it requires intelligence to slow-play trips or a boat.
Reply With Quote
elipsesjeff
Old 12-12-2005, 05:45 AM #12 (permalink)  
elipsesjeff's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
You still havent given me any probabilities on how good you think your hand is.
I don't have exact numbers, but I usually give ordinarily passive players credit for a hand when they suddenly show strength, especially when they just call with an open pair on the flop, then suddenly raise the turn.

I'm not really overestimating his intelligence. I don't think it requires intelligence to slow-play trips or a boat.
Well, you have an estimate then, because from your posts you say that your are likely to be behind. But you don't know how far behind. You may very well be behind, but you can't assume anything until he tells you. Getting scared facing a raise here is not how to act. You only have to be ahead here 33% of the time to make a three-bet profitable, if that. (to get that number i used the 18% chance of hitting your straight draw in the calculation, not counting any folding equity you get by him folding on the turn that could draw out on you on the river)


Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
 
Reply With Quote
Fnord
Old 12-12-2005, 11:39 PM #13 (permalink)  
Fnord's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point
Send a message via MSN to Fnord
Based on his posts, 6-max LHE is probably the worst possible fit for DSaxton.

It's a crazy game where everyone is paranoid, aggressive and often playing too many hands, then continuing with very little post-flop.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
Reply With Quote
pokerfanatic
Old 12-13-2005, 02:13 AM #14 (permalink)  
pokerfanatic's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
pokerfanatic
Send a message via AIM to pokerfanatic
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Based on his posts, 6-max LHE is probably the worst possible fit for DSaxton.

It's a crazy game where everyone is paranoid, aggressive and often playing too many hands, then continuing with very little post-flop.
I was thinking the same thing about the comment about how the OESD doesn't mean anything for the decision to raise, hell to me it gives me even MORE incentive to make the raise because even if I’m out kicked I got 8 outs and building a pot with that type hand is always +EV to me...

In a FR game maybe the draw doesn’t help your decision to 3 bet but in 6max you need to take more into account and just play more Argo IMO…
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
 
Reply With Quote
Fnord
Old 12-13-2005, 01:31 PM #15 (permalink)  
Fnord's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point
Send a message via MSN to Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Based on his posts, 6-max LHE is probably the worst possible fit for DSaxton.

It's a crazy game where everyone is paranoid, aggressive and often playing too many hands, then continuing with very little post-flop.
...and not being punished harshly for it in the short run...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
Reply With Quote
elipsesjeff
Old 12-14-2005, 05:23 AM #16 (permalink)  
elipsesjeff's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Based on his posts, 6-max LHE is probably the worst possible fit for DSaxton.

It's a crazy game where everyone is paranoid, aggressive and often playing too many hands, then continuing with very little post-flop.
...and not being punished harshly for it in the short run...
you're just so nice


Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
 
Reply With Quote
Reply
Latest Poker News
KoRnholio Old 05-26-2012, 03:08 PM    Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ...

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »
Thread Tools
Display Modes
Linear Mode Linear Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


All times are GMT. The time now is 09:57 AM.

Contact Us - Archive - Top

FTR Testimonials

All content
© FlopTurnRiver.com 		Advertising  |   Partners  |   Testimonials  |   T&C  |   Contact Us  |   FTR News & Press  |   Site Map  |   Search FTR

Full Tilt  |   Titan Poker  |   UltimateBet  |   Poker Stars  |   Ladbrokes Bonus  |   Sportsbook  |   Cake Poker  

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum
This is not a gambling website.