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asdpikas

09-16-2008, 03:12 AM Post subject: draw equity?

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Posts: 1,056

I think i played this the best i could, any comments?? should i 3bet the turn? I'm pretty sure there is a set out there, but have OESD and 2nd nut FD

2/4 Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($137.50)
UTG 1 ($89.00)
CO ($123.50)
BTN ($53.00)
SB ($152.00)
Hero ($98.50)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 6 players) Hero is BB

1 fold, UTG 1 raises, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero calls

Flop:

(6.0 SB, 3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG 1 raises, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG 1 calls, SB 4-bets, Hero calls, UTG 1 calls

Turn:

(9.0 BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG 1 raises, SB calls, Hero calls

River:

(15.0 BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG 1 bets, SB raises, Hero folds, UTG 1 3-bets, SB calls

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Fnord

09-16-2008, 05:15 AM

#2 (permalink)

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Over-played.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

asdpikas

09-16-2008, 05:22 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,056

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Over-played.

please elaborate... thanks!

09-16-2008, 05:33 AM

#4 (permalink)

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first of all, on the flop your equity is crushed by the flush draw so might as well not raise because you can make your straight and lose to a flush so your equity is not that great to begin with

the flush comes on the turn and you're like I still have a draw and I'm going to pay out of my ass to chase it...
I'd call two on the flop and check/call the turn

KoRnholio

09-16-2008, 05:47 AM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

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Posts: 2,165

KoRnholio will become famous soon enough

"Epic spew" is what first came to mind for me on the flop play. On the flop with the 2 flush on board, I'd say our draw is worth about 8 outs (7 for the straight, 1 for the runner runner flush) against 2 opponents.

Our position isn't good enough to be able to take a free river card, and equity isn't that great, so raising is likely a losing proposition.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

Fnord

09-16-2008, 06:32 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

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What they said. It's a draw heavy board with a couple big cards. Flush Draw >>>>>>> Straight draw.

The 3-bet is pure spew.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

DrivingDog

09-16-2008, 07:51 AM

#7 (permalink)

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Location: UK

Posts: 923

On the flop you've got a 3way pot with not quite your share of equity. You definitely don't want to knock anyone out so no point in 3 betting.

There's no draw strong enough to voluntary put chips in when it's a multiway pot on the turn. You're trying to get to the river cheap. C/c please.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Chopper

09-16-2008, 02:03 PM

#8 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

at first, i thought 3bet was spewy, too. but, i am trying to learn by looking at all angles. so, indulge me if possible...

we have 8 outs, maybe another for runner-runner. 8 outs = 32ish % chance of best hand. granted villains have likely redraws, but 32% in a 3way is breakeven, yes?

is there enough dead money + aggression so far to make such a draw pay off? how do i calculate that in a LHE table since i cant assume we may "stack off."

obv, i think c/c is the way to go, but i want to find the subtle situations where aggression w/o the best hand is correct.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

asdpikas

09-16-2008, 04:46 PM

#9 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Posts: 1,056

i think taking the aggro route with draws is never too big a mistake, and this case is no exception, and can be optimal some times.
I'm not saying i played it the best way, but having my 33% equity and adding a bit of fold equity is always good. If i can get Ahigh to fold on the turn and get it heads up with all that extra money in a big pot, i'm a happy camper.
In retrospect, this maybe wasnt the best time to play so aggro, but i don't think its soooooo awful

"could I take out every woman and child in a border town?"
For the right to be governed, waste them without mercy.
When you've decided. Meet me at the airport.

09-16-2008, 06:53 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Posts: n/a

33% equity my ass
you have 26% against a flush draw and a pair

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

903 games 0.015 secs 60,200 games/sec

Board: Qc 8s Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.357% 26.36% 00.00% 238 0.00 { KsTc }
Hand 1: 32.890% 32.89% 00.00% 297 0.00 { 7s6s }
Hand 2: 40.753% 40.75% 00.00% 368 0.00 { AcJc }

---

Fnord

09-16-2008, 06:59 PM

#11 (permalink)

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...and no one is folding shit on this board.

Aggression is good and all, but not all hands are best played aggressivly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

KoRnholio

09-16-2008, 09:13 PM

#12 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 2,165

SB's cold call and then 4bet is also a very bad sign for our hand. It's possible he is doing this on a flush draw, but sets and the flopped straight will show up fairly often.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

Chopper

09-16-2008, 09:30 PM

#13 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

i understand what you are saying, but your range is way too tight. villains could have more than you stoved. asp's equity is likely between 33 and 26. besides, 26% may still be profitable (prolly not, but it may be closer than we are giving credit) if we have FE + dead money....thats what i am trying to find out. (i'm still not saying the 3bet was right. i just want to see more than a "single hand range."

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

09-16-2008, 09:38 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Posts: n/a

There's no fold equity when someone caps the flop. Here, I'll stove another scenario where you could be crushed:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

903 games 0.005 secs 180,600 games/sec

Board: Qc 8s Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.784% 14.29% 00.50% 129 4.50 { KsTc }
Hand 1: 30.731% 30.23% 00.50% 273 4.50 { AsTs }
Hand 2: 54.485% 54.49% 00.00% 492 0.00 { 8c8d }

---

so depending on the opponent's holdings you could be as bad as 14%
903 games 0.005 secs 180,600 games/sec

Board: Qc 8s Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 13.953% 13.95% 00.00% 126 0.00 { KsTc }
Hand 1: 34.441% 34.11% 00.33% 308 3.00 { As2s }
Hand 2: 51.606% 51.27% 00.33% 463 3.00 { AcAh }

actually lowest I got was 11.7% equity in pokerstove

but the best scenario is like:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

903 games 0.005 secs 180,600 games/sec

Board: Qc 8s Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.532% 40.53% 00.00% 366 0.00 { KsTc }
Hand 1: 50.277% 50.28% 00.00% 454 0.00 { Qh2d }
Hand 2: 09.192% 09.19% 00.00% 83 0.00 { AdJh }

but that's less likely with the action given

DrivingDog

09-16-2008, 11:38 PM

#15 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

If you gain 20% FE by playing your draw aggressively against one player that's one thing but if you gain 20% FE against each of two players they'll both fold only 4% of the time.

Moral of the story: Don't pump your draws on the turn in multiway pots, especially big pots with heavy flop action.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

asdpikas

09-17-2008, 03:46 AM

#16 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2007

Posts: 1,056

hmmm
iopq, when doing that sort of calculation, you should consider ranges as a whole and not only bestcase/worstcase scenarios.

I would consider ranges as follows:
UTG:
A9+, A8s+, 55+, KQ, KJ, QJs, JTs, KTs
SB:
22-99, 89s+, A2s-A9s, A9+, KQ, KJ, QJs, JTs, K9s+

standard range for utg, wide speculative range for SB

Board: Qc 8s Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.281% 29.74% 01.54% 5762138 299017.00 { KsTc }
Hand 1: 39.480% 37.81% 01.67% 7325606 324214.50 { 55+, A8s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, A9o+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 29.239% 27.09% 02.15% 5248280 417318.50 { 99-22, A9s-A2s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, A9o+, KTo+, QJo }

"could I take out every woman and child in a border town?"
For the right to be governed, waste them without mercy.
When you've decided. Meet me at the airport.

asdpikas

09-17-2008, 03:52 AM

#17 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Posts: 1,056

thus, with 31.2% equity in a 3way pot, you just need 3.2% folding equity on the flop to make it worth it

Of course, if villains have exactly ATs and 88, i am crushed, but that is not the point, since we cannot know their cards, only speculate on ranges. And the ranges i have used are kind of tight, normally u should always include the possibility of villains having some weirdo hands.

I find it isn't black and white as you would have it, iopq

"could I take out every woman and child in a border town?"
For the right to be governed, waste them without mercy.
When you've decided. Meet me at the airport.

Chopper

09-17-2008, 03:56 AM

#18 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

Quote:

Originally Posted by asdpikas

thank you. i was just getting ready to do the same thing.

however, as i mentioned, i think its spew to 3bet the flop. i just wanted to see if there was reason for doing it that even made it close. here's what my reasoning, unmathematical as it is, came up with...

- UTG1's raise alone should tell us we have next to zero FE in a limit game, let alone the caller. so, that part adds zero equity to our hand if we 3bet.
- 9 sb's go in on the flop alone. the pot was 6 sb's before any flop betting. but, i still dont think that 6 sb's is enough "dead money" to pump even 30% equity to 32%...and that doesnt consider the spade draw that may make/sink our hand simultaneously. i just cant do the math to prove how close it is or isnt. that was what i wanted to see/learn.

bottom line is: we dont have enough other factors to make this play profitable w/o hitting ONLY a straight that doesnt give off a flush, especially given the action we are getting. maybe if we possibly had the current best hand and a redraw to a stronger hand....obv not the case here.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

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