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Nehmer
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03-30-2005, 09:20 PM
Post subject: downswings
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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If you are typically a 1.5-2.0 BB/100 winner at your current level, what is the maximum downswing you should expect due to just normal variation? I have the occasional 50 BB downswing, so I know that is quite natural, but I am currently approaching a 100 BB downswing for the first time in a LONG time(last time it happened I still sucked at poker). Is this something that will happen from time to time or is there probably something wrong with my game right now? Would it be reasonable to expect downswings much bigger than 100BB with nothing being wrong with your game? Maybe 150 or 200 BB?
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Trikflow77
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: im so asian
Posts: 1,460
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I have had downswings of 150bb followed by a 100bb upswing followed by another 100bb downswing. This is the nature of the game in limit, you have to get used to it. 200bb's or so it about the wall I have hit but I have heard of more, mainly in 6-max poker.
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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I guess I'm going to have to start keeping a slightly bigger bankroll. I usually cashout 150 BB when I get up to about 350 BB. That'll really leave me in trouble if I hit a 200BB downswing right when I cashout. Maybe I'll start cashing out 200 BB when I get up to 600 or something 
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Trikflow77
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: im so asian
Posts: 1,460
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Yea, keep a 300bb bandroll at all times, will keep ya from going broke. I kepp mine higher than that, but I multi table and I lwould even have enough money to cover 8 tables if i kept a 300bb bankroll.
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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I think being very selective of the games you play in minimizes downswings, a lot.
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take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
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cassette
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Canada
Posts: 92
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For me, table selection increases downswings (as well as upswings...)
I generally play in games that I can find with the biggest possible Avg. pots. This usually means there are a couple maniacs at the table. I often camp here and try to isolate them when I can. When I do well i do really well. When i'm unlucky, well....
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Rondavu
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
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If you can't handle a huge downswing then tighten up more. Tighter = Less Variance with slower gradual upswing.
Eventually, increased skill will allow you to loosen up without slipping.
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It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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try to avoid tight aggressive games, these are your least profitable foes
you don't want a table that folds 3 orbits and one guy opens raising each time.
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