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Donk Lead, C/C, Donk Lead

  
 
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Airles™
Old 02-21-2009, 09:32 PM     Post subject: Donk Lead, C/C, Donk Lead #1 (permalink)  
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No reads worth mentioning...

How often is this a bluff? I'm not raising his river donk lead but I can't fathom folding on this board, like EVER. Thought maybe flush/straight draw until the river lead, which kind of screamed two-pair. I kinda figured I was beat, but again, how can anyone find a fold here? Especially at these stakes...

PokerStars Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls

Flop: (8.4 SB) J, 3, K (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold

Turn: (7.7 BB) 6 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, 1 fold

River: (9.7 BB) 2 (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls

Total pot: $5.85 (11.7 BB) | Rake: $0.25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carroters
The solution to getting 1 outered is a simple one. We just need to find the site that is the least rigged.
 
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DrivingDog
Old 02-21-2009, 09:53 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Some guys will do this with any hand they're calling the river with (don't ask me why). I think Kx, Jx shows up here a lot. Other guys bluff the river with a busted draw hoping you were on a draw as well.

I'm tempted to raise. That 2 doesn't scare me at all. OTOH I don't like the idea of getting 3bet and I want to see what he's doing this with. So i probably just call.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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poker3player333
Old 02-21-2009, 10:13 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I like a call here. He could have been on a busted draw and ur top pair doesn't look too bad.
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KoRnholio
Old 02-22-2009, 12:33 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 No way I fold here. This is a hand like Kx or even a busted flush draw quite often.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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arborman
Old 02-22-2009, 03:04 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Yeah it's either a busted draw, an overplayed tpnk, or a luckbox 2 pair. I call always on this hand (and usually even when the flush makes it unless villain is a nit).
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asdpikas
Old 02-22-2009, 06:30 AM #6 (permalink)  
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call

lose minimum against better, snap bluffs or donked worse hands (that wont call a raise anyways)
"could I take out every woman and child in a border town?"
For the right to be governed, waste them without mercy.
When you've decided. Meet me at the airport.
 
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Ragnar4
Old 02-22-2009, 07:56 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Well, that action reeked of 33% pot equity on the flop. Which means diamond draw, or 45.

He has a LOT more missed diamond draws, than made 45's. So I call. If he's a habitual bluffer, I consider a raise/call.

oh. Add QT to the 33% missed equity side too. Making this call even more "AUTOier."
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Knytestorme
Old 02-22-2009, 12:30 PM #8 (permalink)  
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No-one thinks KJ that waited for the flush to miss before trying to lead, hoping for you to either be on a missed draw or something like AK to either get a fold or a river 3-bet in?
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Trons
Old 02-22-2009, 01:18 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 In my opinion you run into missed and weaker top pairs here then any other hand...

KJ wouldn't have waited to see if the diamond draw missed (at least he shouldn't have) and 54 makes no sense (why would he donk bet the flop?).

I raise this every time in this situation and if I get 3bet, I call with pleasure.

I believe they do this with any hand they plan on calling for because they believe that you a) won't raise and b) may fold a small % of the time.

KQ, KT are hand I would expect to see. If he does show up with 2 pair or better, I'd make a note on him and that would be worth the extra money right there.

Keep in mind that 2 pair (on the flop, i'm not thinking a hand like K2 although, its possible) is prob jamming every street if he's good enough to try to jam the pot on the river. Why wouldn't he 4 bet the flop and donk bet the turn? or for that matter, just donk bet the turn when the bets get larger?

I think you're still a head and vote for jamming the pot.
Quote:
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Airles™
Old 02-22-2009, 06:09 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Thanks for the comments. He showed down K6o. He hit the 6 on the turn and proceeded to check/call the turn. Perhaps he thought I was on the FD and was trying to jam the pot on the flop, and played it safe on the turn to see if a third diamond showed up on 5th street. I had to see what you guys thought though because I've seen this play a ton since I've switched over to LHE and the shit just baffles me. I had a feeling he lucked his way into two-pair on the river here but I'm pretty much calling every time. For the times I call and scoop the pot it should make up for the times I call to a better hand who got lucky on the river. I think folding in this spot is insanely exploitable unless you have a dead-on read. Am I right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carroters
The solution to getting 1 outered is a simple one. We just need to find the site that is the least rigged.
 
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DrivingDog
Old 02-22-2009, 07:48 PM #11 (permalink)  
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One of the things that make these limits so easy to beat is plays like this. Villian basically saved you a BB here.

If any scare card had come on the river I bet he would have just c/c'd it down. I mean he doesn't c/r the turn or even the river. And if you are on a missed draw why would you look him up when he donks the river?

This is what makes it a good idea to take notes on guys. The donkbet can mean a lot of different things depending on the opponent and there's no stat that gives you this kind of information.

I'm never ever ever folding TPTK to a donkbet on the river after this action unless the board gets extremely scary or I have a very solid read on villian.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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Chopper
Old 02-22-2009, 09:47 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Airles™
Thanks for the comments. He showed down K6o. He hit the 6 on the turn and proceeded to check/call the turn. Perhaps he thought I was on the FD and was trying to jam the pot on the flop, and played it safe on the turn to see if a third diamond showed up on 5th street. I had to see what you guys thought though because I've seen this play a ton since I've switched over to LHE and the shit just baffles me. I had a feeling he lucked his way into two-pair on the river here but I'm pretty much calling every time. For the times I call and scoop the pot it should make up for the times I call to a better hand who got lucky on the river. I think folding in this spot is insanely exploitable unless you have a dead-on read. Am I right?
watch the guys that "river donk" well...and note them. this guy wasnt one of them, but they do exist, but not likely at 25/50c.

the river donk is exactly what it looks like. usually, its a "block." someone plans on calling the river bet from you, but doesnt think they can c/r and be ahead most of the time....or they think you would just check behind YOUR draw but call a bet that looks bluffy. its a great "move" in the right spots, and this is a good one for QQ, KT and QJ type hands because you will fold weaker K's here possibly and AJ. the "right" player will fold even better like KQ.

when you find "that guy" that river donks well, you RAISE him when you have marginal stuff beat.

thats the answer for DDog. but, to answer the bluff question: its not a bluff often. but, you do have to know who does this with very strong hands and who does it a bit lightly.

ps, i am tempted to raise this, too, but not at this level. it often makes me think of KJ. in which case, i note him as "waits for river" and i lose all respect for his abilities to charge me the maximum when i am on draws.
LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
 
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Fnord
Old 02-23-2009, 09:24 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Flat the flop and sort this mess out on the turn.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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MSG85
Old 02-23-2009, 09:32 AM #14 (permalink)  
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 Easy call, I usually can concoct an argument for raising at any point in a hand, but really, just do this: WTFARE(R)UBETINGHERETHATBEATSME,SHOWMRYOURF'INGHAN DYOUDOUCHEBAG call. You'll win the max and lose the min a lot.
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