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donk-bluffing twice into 2 callers...a new fad?

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mdwav

04-09-2006, 12:53 AM Post subject: donk-bluffing twice into 2 callers...a new fad?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: Ont, Canada

Posts: 59

Seen this happen thrice...and twice I folded the best hand. Basically the board on the turn shows 4 to a straight/flush. Someone that's been doing nothing but check/calling suddenly donks. They get called in 2+ spots. The river is a brick, and they donk again. This confuses the hell out of me, not so much b/c of the donk bluff, but having another player callingin the middle. A quick rundown of the hands:
Hand 1: On a JTxx turn (4 clubs), SB who has been check/calling donks. MP calls, I call on the button with JJ. River is a brick, SB donks, MP calls, I fold (figuring at least one guy had a club). SB has a busted straight draw, MP has KJo (no club).
Hand 2: Board had 4 spades on turn. I check folded my overpair after it was bet and called. River went check-check, turn bettor had TPMK, caller had a STRAIGHT DRAW.
Hand 3: I folded TPTK on a QJT8x board. On the turn, SB (who had been calling the whole way) donked, I mis-read the board and raised. CO thought for a LONG time, and cold called, SB called. On a brick river SB donked, I folded, CO called. SB shows 83o, CO has A9o.

With that said, how often (in your exp) does no one have the obvious straight/flush? Would you make a crying call on the river with something like a set? TP? What if you closed the action? What if you didn't? Am I just being results-oriented? BTW all the hands in my example occured at 6-max, hands 1&2 from 2/4, hand 3 from 3/6. It seemd easy at first: 4-straight/flush on board, fold anything less than a straight/flush....then I see these donk bluffs and (arguably) even more donkish calls.

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Xanadu

04-09-2006, 06:59 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: May 2005

Location: st. paul, MO

Posts: 966

A few stats can help here. With random starting hands, the following are the probabilities that none of your opponents has made either a straight or a flush with the given boards:

4 flush board, no straight:
2 opps: 40%
3 opps: 24%

4 flush, inside straight:
2 opps: 27%
3 opps: 14%

open ended straight flush:
2 opps: 18%
3 opps: 7%

From these numbers, we can see what the absolute minimum pot sizes would have to be for calling with say a set to break even. Of course these are just the 'odds in a vacuum' numbers, and they will be adjusted to some extent depending on the action and opponents. One thing I have noticed, is that 2 pair happens a lot on a 4 straight board ... people like to play connected cards. It is a little less likely that top pair is good even if noone has made the straight. Also, many people that stay in on such scary boards tend to have better than usual hands ... they won't risk it with top or middle pair, but may make a bet with a set or 2pair.

I think a lot of people would be surprised to see just how often noone has the flush on a 4 flush board. If it is you and 2 others to the flop and you all stay in to the river and there are 4 of a suit on board, 40 % of the time neither of your opponents have the flush. It's pretty much always correct to call a bet on the river with a decent hand. Even with an OESF on board and 2 opponents, I'd call with a good hand if there are 7 or 8 bets in the pot.

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donk-bluffing twice into 2 callers...a new fad?

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