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Does anyone understand what goes thru 30/60 players' minds?

  
 
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SmackinYaUp
Old 03-09-2005, 08:20 AM     Post subject: Does anyone understand what goes thru 30/60 players' minds? #1 (permalink)  
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***** Hand History for Game 1708815721 *****
$30/$60 Hold'em - Wednesday, March 09, 04:15:51 EDT 2005
Table Table 14438 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: GORDOFORYOU ( $3537 )
Seat 2: jaytorr ( $982 )
Seat 3: YouAreBehind ( $737 )
Seat 4: Swepe101 ( $1542 )
Seat 5: likumnutz ( $1701 )
Seat 6: QueenBBest ( $2877 )
Seat 7: Bappapp ( $347.5 )
Seat 9: Lakerman__ ( $2619 )
Seat 10: nailsbylil ( $1374 )
Seat 8: East_Beast ( $889 )
likumnutz posts small blind [$15].
QueenBBest posts big blind [$30].
** Dealing down cards **
Bappapp folds.
>You have options at Table 37412 Table!.
Lakerman__ folds.
nailsbylil raises [$60].
GORDOFORYOU raises [$90].
jaytorr folds.
Swepe101 folds.
likumnutz folds.
QueenBBest folds.
nailsbylil calls [$30].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2d, 8h, 5d ]
nailsbylil checks.
GORDOFORYOU bets [$30].
nailsbylil raises [$60].
GORDOFORYOU raises [$60].
nailsbylil calls [$30].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ts ]
nailsbylil checks.
GORDOFORYOU bets [$60].
nailsbylil calls [$60].
** Dealing River ** [ Ac ]
nailsbylil checks.
GORDOFORYOU checks.
nailsbylil shows [ 6h, 6c ] a pair of sixes.
GORDOFORYOU shows [ Kd, Kc ] a pair of kings.
GORDOFORYOU wins $522 from the main pot with a pair of kings.

This isnt just a random fish play either. Every other hand is like this. These guys are years ahead of me - what do they think?
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Greedo017
Old 03-09-2005, 09:08 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 i don't think this particular one is all so confusing. always raise, he raises his 66, he gets reraised so he knows he's up against something, probably big cards, so he calls.

flop comes junk, he figures other guy didn't hit, so he check-raises to see what's up, when it gets 3-bet he starts wondering again and calls.

turn and river, he figures he's probably beat but the pot is big so he check/calls it down, and there's a chance he's ahead anyway.

as a disclaimer, i've played probably 12 hands of limit in my life.
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Pyroxene
Old 03-09-2005, 03:14 PM     Post subject: Re: Does anyone understand what goes thru 30/60 players' min #3 (permalink)  
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***** Hand History for Game 1708815721 *****
$30/$60 Hold'em - Wednesday, March 09, 04:15:51 EDT 2005
Table Table 14438 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: GORDOFORYOU ( $3537 )
Seat 2: jaytorr ( $982 )
Seat 3: YouAreBehind ( $737 )
Seat 4: Swepe101 ( $1542 )
Seat 5: likumnutz ( $1701 )
Seat 6: QueenBBest ( $2877 )
Seat 7: Bappapp ( $347.5 )
Seat 9: Lakerman__ ( $2619 )
Seat 10: nailsbylil ( $1374 )
Seat 8: East_Beast ( $889 )
likumnutz posts small blind [$15].
QueenBBest posts big blind [$30].
** Dealing down cards **
Bappapp folds. Man, these cards are cold.

Lakerman__ folds. No point betting this.

nailsbylil raises [$60]. I have a middle PP and no reason to appear weak, small chance I can take it right here. If I can issolate then I am a small favorite to an Ace-Face.

GORDOFORYOU raises [$90]. I have pocket kings, let's get money in the pot.

jaytorr folds. Get me the hell out of here.
Swepe101 folds. I'm right behind you
likumnutz folds. Hold the door.
QueenBBest folds. Me too.

nailsbylil calls [$30]. Crap. Okay, maybe overpair, maybe two high cards. Let's see what comes.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 2d, 8h, 5d ]
nailsbylil checks. Not a bad flop, if he is on Ax then I am way ahead. Let's see what comes and represent a trap on a bet.

GORDOFORYOU bets [$30]. Not a bad flop for me, annoying flush draw possibility and even some OESD possibilities. Get money in here, no one draws for free.

nailsbylil raises [$60]. Hum, maybe he is on AK, AQ and he missed. He may have crap. Let's find out.

GORDOFORYOU raises [$60]. God this is great.

nailsbylil calls [$30]. Crap, he has something. Lot of money in here and there is always the 10% chance he is on a bluff.

** Dealing Turn ** [ Ts ]
nailsbylil checks. No help here and getting worse.

GORDOFORYOU bets [$60]. No free draws for you

nailsbylil calls [$60]. I'll see it to the end.

** Dealing River ** [ Ac ]

nailsbylil checks. Well, if he was on a busted Ax draw he has it now.

GORDOFORYOU checks. DOH! If this guy was drawing to a busted Ax then I am screwed. No point in betting. If he calls I am likely beat, if he raises I could be throwing money away and if he folds its because I have him beat already. No point in betting this.

nailsbylil shows [ 6h, 6c ] a pair of sixes. Damn it.
GORDOFORYOU shows [ Kd, Kc ] a pair of kings. Bah, should have bet the river, he may have given me one more bet.

GORDOFORYOU wins $522 from the main pot with a pair of kings.
Pyroxene
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 03-09-2005, 03:27 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Good analysis, and good play on both ends.


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a500lbgorilla
Old 03-09-2005, 04:39 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Room
Old 03-09-2005, 05:02 PM #6 (permalink)  
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why not bet the river here? are we scared that this guy had ak-aj and is going to call down to the river hoping to spike an A? i would think his ak-aj is going to lose to your KK more time than its going to win. therefore wouldnt betting the river have a +EV?
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SmackinYaUp
Old 03-09-2005, 05:33 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Very interesting...I love the way you put that. Thanks! Limit is an alien to me.
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elipsesjeff
Old 03-09-2005, 05:33 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 Betting the river here will only get you called by those hands that will beat you. I say at a normal 2/4 game I would bet, but being it a 30/60 game, a bet could lose you $120 if you are raised back at. Too many people call down with A high to make a bet here on the river profitable in my opinion.


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Room
Old 03-09-2005, 06:20 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Betting the river here will only get you called by those hands that will beat you. I say at a normal 2/4 game I would bet, but being it a 30/60 game, a bet could lose you $120 if you are raised back at. Too many people call down with A high to make a bet here on the river profitable in my opinion.
yes losing $120 would suck, but i think we should be thinking about BBs. a BB is a BB whether its 4 or 60. Anyhow, i've never played 30/60 so i cant say some with any A is going to chase to the river for an A. if they have AQ theyre chasing 3 outs, assuming they arent drawing to the flush. they arent getting good enough odds to chase you down to make it profitable for them. therefore, if something is unprofitable for them, you must make them pay. i would think, bet the river. if they chased with Ax, unfortunate for that hand, but KK will hold up more than its fair share against this hand in similar situations.
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elipsesjeff
Old 03-09-2005, 06:26 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 Ace high doesnt need to improve to win HU against aggressive opponents. Odds are better used in low limits, its all about the feeling and intelligence at the level they are playing. No doubt they all have reads on each other.

Your reasoning is right that they should pay, but you also have to realize when getting called will only mean you are beat. Getting one extra big bet here in exhange for the chance of losing two, is not worth it. Determine the probability of him holding any Ace and calling down with it, its more profitable to check.


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Room
Old 03-09-2005, 06:43 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Ace high doesnt need to improve to win HU against aggressive opponents. Odds are better used in low limits, its all about the feeling and intelligence at the level they are playing. No doubt they all have reads on each other.

Your reasoning is right that they should pay, but you also have to realize when getting called will only mean you are beat. Getting one extra big bet here in exhange for the chance of losing two, is not worth it. Determine the probability of him holding any Ace and calling down with it, its more profitable to check.
so what is the villan with 66 calling the turn with if he doesnt think hes ahead? he must have thought he was up against ak, aq, etc to make this turn call. therefore, based on how the hand played out, i cant see him calling a 3 bet on the flop, then calling the turn with just A high at that point. so i think once he calls the turn, you can safely take him off Ax. and bet the river for value.
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Pyroxene
Old 03-09-2005, 06:52 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Room
so what is the villan with 66 calling the turn with if he doesnt think hes ahead? he must have thought he was up against ak, aq, etc to make this turn call. therefore, based on how the hand played out, i cant see him calling a 3 bet on the flop, then calling the turn with just A high at that point. so i think once he calls the turn, you can safely take him off Ax. and bet the river for value.
His call on the turn is $60 into a $462 pot which is about 8:1. Those are just the odds you need to call for 6 outs to 2 overcards. I imagine that is what GORDOFORYOU was concerned about.
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Room
Old 03-09-2005, 07:11 PM #13 (permalink)  
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if you have KK, and he has ak-aj, hes drawing to 3 outs. putting him on ATs is possible i guess. very loose for early position raise and a pure bluff on the flop, plus a call of an what appears to be an over PP on the flop. he couldnt think pairing his ten on the turn would be good so id imagine hed have to fold this after its raised back to him on the flop. again, this is all assuming he isnt drawing to a flush.
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Pyroxene
Old 03-09-2005, 07:25 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Room
if you have KK, and he has ak-aj, hes drawing to 3 outs. putting him on ATs is possible i guess. very loose for early position raise and a pure bluff on the flop, plus a call of an what appears to be an over PP on the flop. he couldnt think pairing his ten on the turn would be good so id imagine hed have to fold this after its raised back to him on the flop. again, this is all assuming he isnt drawing to a flush.
I agree that with KK, an opponent with AK only has 3 outs. But from GORDOFORYOU's perspective he has to make sense of nailsbylil's call on the turn. One possible way to make sense of it is that nailsbylil has AK and he believes GORDOFORYOU is on a lower high pair like JJ or QQ. If nailsbylil had AK and believed GORDOFORYOU on Jacks or Queens, then an 8:1 call on the turn is a EV+ call. This is one of the beauties of KK and AA, other premium hands can believe they have more outs than they really have. As Fnord mentions in another thread, if he gets heads up on the flop he will see to the River with an Ace barring an exceptional board. GORDOFORYOU is concerned that nailsbylil did the same thing and spiked his Ace on the river.
Pyroxene
 
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Room
Old 03-09-2005, 07:32 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pyroxene
I agree that with KK, an opponent with AK only has 3 outs. But from GORDOFORYOU's perspective he has to make sense of nailsbylil's call on the turn. One possible way to make sense of it is that nailsbylil has AK and he believes GORDOFORYOU is on a lower high pair like JJ or QQ. If nailsbylil had AK and believed GORDOFORYOU on Jacks or Queens, then an 8:1 call on the turn is a EV+ call. This is one of the beauties of KK and AA, other premium hands can believe they have more outs than they really have. As Fnord mentions in another thread, if he gets heads up on the flop he will see to the River with an Ace barring an exceptional board. GORDOFORYOU is concerned that nailsbylil did the same thing and spiked his Ace on the river.
very well put and interesting perspective on things. i like your discussion. one last thought. if the villan does hold any A, and figures us for a PP KK-below, doesnt the villan lead the river Ace? to not miss a bet from us?
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Pyroxene
Old 03-09-2005, 07:54 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Room
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pyroxene
I agree that with KK, an opponent with AK only has 3 outs. But from GORDOFORYOU's perspective he has to make sense of nailsbylil's call on the turn. One possible way to make sense of it is that nailsbylil has AK and he believes GORDOFORYOU is on a lower high pair like JJ or QQ. If nailsbylil had AK and believed GORDOFORYOU on Jacks or Queens, then an 8:1 call on the turn is a EV+ call. This is one of the beauties of KK and AA, other premium hands can believe they have more outs than they really have. As Fnord mentions in another thread, if he gets heads up on the flop he will see to the River with an Ace barring an exceptional board. GORDOFORYOU is concerned that nailsbylil did the same thing and spiked his Ace on the river.
very well put and interesting perspective on things. i like your discussion. one last thought. if the villan does hold any A, and figures us for a PP KK-below, doesnt the villan lead the river Ace? to not miss a bet from us?
Good point and a good example of the power of position. I agree that nailsbylil's checking on the river is a sign to GORDOFORYOU that the Ace did not make him happy. GORDOFORYOU should probably have bet, though I imagine I would have checked on the river as well. But then, I do not play $30/$60.
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Demiparadigm
Old 03-11-2005, 02:54 AM #17 (permalink)  
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You seem to be forgetting the nut flush draw.
AQs has more than the correct odds to be played exactly as the 66 was.
In this case (as opposed to a smaller game) betting the river for value is almost impossible. You will not get another bet out of a worse hand, and you will lose 2 BBs to a better hand.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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Gatlin Dan
Old 03-11-2005, 09:50 AM #18 (permalink)  
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I check this river too, regardless of the limit.
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Room
Old 03-11-2005, 12:58 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
You seem to be forgetting the nut flush draw.
AQs has more than the correct odds to be played exactly as the 66 was.
In this case (as opposed to a smaller game) betting the river for value is almost impossible. You will not get another bet out of a worse hand, and you will lose 2 BBs to a better hand.
AKs, AQs are likely holdings, and you make an excellent point. his call on the turn would be more than justified given the pot odds. however, my attempt to put him on a hand took him off AKs or AQs. (i guess its easy to do this in hindsight but..) his preflop raise and 3bet call are semi-standard of AQs-AKs. Some might cap this. However, im not fond of his postflop c/r. this semibluff of sorts, is it +EV? say hero has AA and villain is AKs or AQs, his best outs are hitting his flush and not an A anymore. facing a 3 bet back to him on the flop, is it time to let go?

another interesting question. assume hero has KsKc, otherwise the hand is the same, and Kd hits the river and its checked to you. will you bet this hand on the river here? what if Qd or less hits?
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Demiparadigm
Old 03-11-2005, 10:10 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
im not fond of his postflop c/r. this semibluff of sorts, is it +EV
It is +EV against 2 or more opponents, if you think they will call.

In this situation, it disguises your hand, and may let you win on the turn without improving.

Quote:
facing a 3 bet back to him on the flop, is it time to let go?
No. You call. It is only one small bet back to you, so your pot odds are actually better
You can give up the idea of bluffing, though. Call on the turn and fold on the river if you don't improve.



Quote:
another interesting question. assume hero has KsKc, otherwise the hand is the same, and Kd hits the river and its checked to you. will you bet this hand on the river here? what if Qd or less hits?
I bet the set of Ks for value. There are now a lot of hands that can call that you can beat, including a lower set, or 2 pair.

With just an overpair, it becomes more iffy. Given the action on the hand I would tend to check. If I was leading with my pair the whole hand, I would tend to bet.
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