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scgolfer
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09-09-2004, 06:34 AM
Post subject: Do I like roller coasters or what? NO I HATE THEM
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 629
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I am at my fricken wits end. If you play well (limit), what sort of variance should you expect? I have fricken peaks and valleys not rolling hills which I would expect. I cant take it anymore. Down 1000 Up 1800 down 800. Fnord Im moving to Party for a change of attitude. But this is it. I could easily quit right now. I know people say "take some time off and try again" but I dont beleive it. If you play well, and the tables are still good you shouldn't have to quit. I have improved immensly as a player but my fricken variance has gotten worse not better. I want to be able to cash out a reasonable amount each month. Any suggestions will be taken seriously and appreciated.
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Holy crap I cant play against Yoda!!
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Expect swings between -100 to -200 Big Bets. Expect variance to increase as you play more hands, play against lots of really bad players at the same table or have a lower real win rate.
Sticking to 2/4 for a while should help too.
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Toasty
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: England UK
Posts: 1,522
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Limit is the ultimate long term game, it's hard but you have to try to ignore the swings and concentrate on leaks and playing well. As long as your BB/100 is positive you are ok.
If a downswing takes a big chunk out of your BR, you have two options.
1 - Drop down to a level where you have 300BBs.
2 - Keep a bigger roll, build it to 500BBs so that when you hit a 100BB/200BB downswing you can soak it up and continue playing.
To reduce variance you could fold more marginal situations that are slightly +EV. That could take a while to prove they are (i.e. hands 10,000 up 2,150 down 2000 profit 150).
Whats your current Standard Deviation ? (Its on the sessions notes). and your BB/100 ?
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Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .
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ttanaka
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Administrator
Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 1,184
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Hey scgolfer,
This may not help you at all since you are specifically inquiring about limit holdem, but in my experience, the no limit ring game (for me) has very little variance.
It's typical for me to only keep only around $100-$200 in my accounts, and that is enough for me for a long time. I haven't made a deposit in either of my Empire or Party accounts in two months.
Of course, I'm only playing the $25 NL tables, but I do play 4 of them, so I'm typically sitting down with $100. Last night I busted out on one table, but doubled on one and tripled up on the other two.
It was the variance that eventually moved me from limit to no limit, you may find a lower variance if you want to switch games. Just a thought...
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