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Diving into the pits of cold calling

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elipsesjeff

08-13-2006, 06:55 AM Post subject: Diving into the pits of cold calling

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Need some statistical analysis by someone better at crunching numbers than I.

Say a 40/20 raises from MP or the CO or whatnot, and you have A5s. Here are the Poker Stove Numbers:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.7145 % 43.27% 02.46% { A5s }
Hand 2: 54.2857 % 51.85% 02.46% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Does this mean we should cold call with this hand, givin it is 1 BB to call in a 1.75 BB pot? That would lead me to say yes....

But, if one of the blinds calls, say he calls 40% of his hands, here are the Poker Stove numbers:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.4388 % 29.11% 02.33% { A5s }
Hand 2: 38.1491 % 36.50% 01.64% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 30.4120 % 28.59% 01.83% { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+ }

Thus we call 1 BB in a 2.25 BB pot, which makes it slightly -EV to call.

I'm just wondering how the 40/20s that are everywhere make any money.

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elipsesjeff

08-13-2006, 04:57 PM

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To clarify, I've always been against cold calling, and especially in 6 max. I just don't think it is profitable to play for pure value alone.

But, if you have position and you can outplay them, then perhaps that is where the value comes from. Just some thoughts.

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StinkyBeaver

08-14-2006, 12:52 PM

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Posts: 275

IMO the 40/20 get a lot of their extra VPIP from defending "too much" in the blinds. And stealing above 40% aswell.
These plays are just about break even EV or slightly -EV perhaps. however the loss comes back when they get extra action on their good holdings.

Also consider that some of them might play a lot of 3-5handed so their vpip when playing 6 handed is not nessicarily 40%.

I think they make money by moving weak and tight players from marginal hands and by playing a lot of hands vs bad players.

I'm very confident that some of the best 6max players plays a preflop style close to 35/23/2

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