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Discussion - Outs/Odds Myopia: do you suffer??

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ArcticKnight

02-14-2005, 01:50 AM Post subject: Discussion - Outs/Odds Myopia: do you suffer??

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Dec 2004

Location: golf course

Posts: 416

Do you have tunnel vision when it comes to outs and odds.

It seems that on these threads and in other places the “outs” or “percentages” have, in some cases, become “all” that matters. A friend of mine (who used to have good poker instincts) has gotten so myopic about outs, odds, probabilities etc that he might as well be playing blackjack.

I wonder…Are we approaching Blackjack? … Where we sit on autopilot and never have to “think” about a decision all night.!!! With the increased use of continuous shuffling machines, and 8 deck shoes that are cut down the middle, pretty much any form of card-counting has become useless in BJ. I stopped playing BJ in favor of Holdem, because I was bored. I found I had no decisions to make (though I did mix it up with 13 against a dealers 2, just to be daring – how boring ..) But, I digress…

To the discussion topic….

Recently a friend of mine was bemoaning a big loss on a hand in which he focused way too much on outs/odds, and not nearly enough on instinct, and POKER. He was in the SB with 56Diamonds, and had 4 limpers in already. He called and the BB checked. He was at 10/20, so there was $60 in play.

The flop came 4S, 6H, 7H

He checked, BB checked, UTG1 came in for 10, next player folded, and the button raised to 20.

My friend was faced with a $20 bet into a $90 pot ($100, if you anticipate UTG1 to call as well).

He said he figured his outs as follows ;
4 outs on the 3’s for a straight
2 outs on the 6’s for trips
4 outs on the 8’s for a straight
2 outs for the 5’s for two pair

That’s 12 outs in total, but he wasn’t all that comfortable with the 5’s, so he counted 11 outs (you know, that silly “½ out” business…).

So, if he plays it out, he’s got about a 42% chance of catching his outs (to the river), and he only has to put in 20% of the pot for now. He figured he was in good shape to call, so he did. He also rationalized that even if he just looked at getting out after the turn, he had 21%, so he was ok.

I won’t bore you with the rest, but he lost to a heart flush and wanted me to look at this hand because he said he was getting creamed like this of late in situations where he had (or thought he had) lots of out and good odds.

In short, my friend had gotten so caught up in the technical/calculating part of the game that he was clearly not looking at the big picture.

I asked him if had considered any of the following:
(1) That of the 4 limpers could there be some 8,9os, 7,9s, 8,10s or even 33, 44, 55 or 66 out there?
(2) Had he considered that if he caught his 3 for the low end of three straight, that he was in for a big loss to the two players who liked their hands already?
(3) Had he considered that based on the nature of the bet and the raise, that some of his outs where probably in the other player’s hands. (the raiser had 66 actually, and was beaten by UTG1 with a flush that hit the turn).
(4) How solid (tight) were UTG1 and the Button?

So, let’s look at the outs again, in light of the raise and the two boarded hearts, and in light that my friend said that UTG1 was had was a bit loose, but the guy on the button was a tight camper.

4 outs on the 3’s for a straight (the 3H is a scare card, and the low end of the straight might be Ok with no raiser,,,but the pot was raised)
2 outs on the 6’s for trips (with a straight draw and probable flush draw, are these solid outs?)
4 outs on the 8’s for a straight (the 8H is a scare card, and it makes 8/9 and 9/10 hands stronger than yours)
2 outs for the 5’s for two pair (these cards could be better for your opponents than you)

Well, that kicks the crap out of his 11 outs..

What you get when you look beyond the apparent outs is that a fistful of what you think are outs will probably just pull you deeper into a bad place and you will (and he did) face a big loss.

So, after all this rambling I put the post up for those who think they might be overly focusing of outs, odds etc at the expense of other aspects of their game. More accurately, it’s for those people who COUNT OUTS OUT OF CONTEXT with the rest of the action.

I’m not trashing the technicals, I’m just saying that if that if outs and odds are dominating your thinking above all else, you are in a heap of trouble.

The game of LHE is holistic, and if try to play it purely on probabilities like Blackjack, you will get killed. It is for this very reason that so many of the very knowledge posters on the site (I’m not one of them) are very cautious about situational advice.

How often have Fnord and others said, “I’d need to know more about the texture of the game, your table image, etc, before commenting.”

I hope the post helps a few folks who may be so focused on calculating to death, that they are losing the art of playing all other aspects of the game of poker.

Gone golfing ..see ya in the Fall of 2006
PS. What did the snail on the turtle's back say?
Wheeeeeeeee........

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elipsesjeff

02-14-2005, 02:27 AM Post subject: Re: Discussion - Outs/Odds Myopia: do you suffer??

#2 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Northern Virginia

Posts: 4,900

elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point

Great post, insightful.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArcticKnight

He checked, BB checked, UTG1 came in for 10, next player folded, and the button raised to 20.

Why didn't he bet here? OESD on that board is pretty good money.

Outs are something that is used to 'tell' you what to do when you don't know and you are in a marginal situation. I find it unnecessary to calculate outs on a multiway board where i have an OESD with middle pair. Why waste the time? Spend that time betting and raising the flop to jam as much money in the middle as he can possible.

Why is he playing low suited connectors if he doesn't know how to handle an OESD? Thats what you should asked him. That, and to bet your draws in a multiway pot. It's bad luck that he lost to a flush draw, If he hit his straight and the flush possibility isnt out there then you have to get your money in. If he hit his straight and flush hit as well, well, then bet and if raised you are forced to call him down. You will win your straights there more often than you will lose and you cant be afraid of the flush unless you are ABSOLUTELY certain he has it.

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rorix

02-14-2005, 08:30 AM

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2005

Posts: 58

Your friend plays self-centered poker.

LeFou

02-14-2005, 11:06 AM Post subject: Re: Discussion - Outs/Odds Myopia: do you suffer??

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Dallas, TX

Posts: 2,361

Yes, this is an excellent post.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArcticKnight

He was in the SB with 56Diamonds, and had 4 limpers in already. He called and the BB checked. He was at 10/20, so there was $60 in play.

The flop came 4S, 6H, 7H

He checked.

Here's a tool for lower limits (I've never played 10/20 in my life; someone who has can tell me if it works there too): raise this up from the SB. BB will generally call for one more, as will the limpers. You've doubled your odds and have a good trapping hand. You can now draw to damn near anything.

Bet this flop. People will almost certainly put you on the wrong hand (overcards, maybe big hearts, possible pair>7) but the only draw likely to raise you is a guy who's actually GOT big hearts.

This is not an "action flop". People don't play 85. Bet it out. If called, I'd probably check-call the rest hoping for another 6 or a 3. 5H hurts you, and the other fives aren't real exciting. If raised, fold if a big heart appears -- it's flushing someone or making a better pair.

Fnord

02-14-2005, 12:13 PM Post subject: Re: Discussion - Outs/Odds Myopia: do you suffer??

#5 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeFou

Bad raise. You don't have enough of an equity edge to raise this out of position and it just makes post-flop harder.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Trikflow77

02-14-2005, 12:25 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: im so asian

Posts: 1,460

Even with EVERONE calling in front of you a raise is not correct here. 56 suited is pretty weak, that tool you have will make you look like a "tool"

Fnord

02-14-2005, 01:08 PM

#7 (permalink)

Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2003

Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

It's probably close to EV neutral by the time you factor in that most players don't play the absolute worst 25% or so of hands. You're just building a pot and increasing your varience.

526,079 games 597.266 secs 880 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 11.8433 % [ 00.11 00.01 ] { 6d5d }
Hand 2: 09.7935 % [ 00.09 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 3: 09.8805 % [ 00.09 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 09.8330 % [ 00.09 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 5: 09.7995 % [ 00.09 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 6: 09.7302 % [ 00.09 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 7: 09.7578 % [ 00.09 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 8: 09.8407 % [ 00.09 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 9: 09.7444 % [ 00.09 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 10: 09.7770 % [ 00.09 00.01 ] { random }

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Trikflow77

02-14-2005, 01:28 PM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: im so asian

Posts: 1,460

why make nuetral ev plays??? It just increases variance like ya said

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Discussion - Outs/Odds Myopia: do you suffer??

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