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jo
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01-27-2008, 04:30 AM
Post subject: Did I miss a river bet here?
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 166
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I'm dealt KcQh in the CO. Game is 6-handed.
All fold to fishy player on my right. He limps, and I raise to isolate. SB (the villain) calls, a reasonable but not tricky player. Fish calls.
*** FLOP *** [Td Qs 6c]
I bet, villain check raises, fish folds, I call. My plan is to rope a dope, since I figure I'm either WAWB.
*** TURN *** [Td Qs 6c] [4s]
Villain bets, I call
*** RIVER *** [Td Qs 6c 4s] [As]
Villain checks, I check behind.
What do you think? Should I have bet?
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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None of his action suggests that the ace helped him. But with the flush on the board. He either folds, or raises your bet, he doesn't call. So no, a bet is bad. No missed bet for you.
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here? 
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Villian's flop c/r range probably includes any Q or T, possibly JJ, and some hands that beat you as well like TT, QQ, AA, etc. On balance, I prefer to raise the turn since you are usually ahead and there are a lot of draws possible, but as played I would bet the river and hope to get a crying call from a worse hand like QJ, KT.
If anything the scary river card helps you because it makes your bet look suspicious. If villian had AQ, AT, KJ, QT, a set or flush he would almost certainly bet out for fear that you would check behind.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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jo
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Straight
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 166
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Hi Ragnar. I disagree with your analysis here. If he's backdoored into a flush here, I don't think he'll go for a check-raise. My action has just been too passive, and there's a lot of weaker hands he'll call with (any T or Q in my opinion).
Hi Driving Dog. I didn't raise the turn, because although I thought I was ahead I felt a raise would allow him to get away from the hands that I beat and essentially allow him to play more correctly. I agree with your river analysis (although do you mean less suspicious?).
Villain had QJ and my hand was good.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Hi Jo. I can see your point about holding off until the river to raise, but there are a lot of river cards (A, T, spade) that will kill your action so I think a turn raise is preferable. I'd be surprised if he'd fold QJ to a turn raise. He definitely won't fold a draw and basically all he will fold is a hand like KT (and if he puts us on a draw or bluff he won't fold that either!). And if he does fold Tx that is not as big a disaster for us as letting him hit a cheap T on the river would be. Finally, if we get 3bet it's a fairly easy muck imo, and we've put in one less bet than had we raised a river blank and got 3bet on the river by QQ, TT, etc..
By 'suspicious' I meant that when the river completes the flush and KJ draws he may put you on a QT, KT type of hand that is trying to bluff as a completed draw. Typical limit players a) bluff too much; b) value bet too little; and c) call down with marginal hands because of 'a' and 'b' above. The answer to this is to a) bluff less; b) value bet and raise relentlessly, even on scary boards; and c) call down with marginal hands.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Yeah on that board a check-raise is Qx very often. The only draw I am worried about is KJ, it's conceivable that he has KJ and hopes that ace just hit you (your passive play is consistent with a hand like AJ/AK). But I'd find a bet here.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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The check/raise in this spot is ALMOST ALWAYS one pair. He wants to isolate your continuation bet and force the terrible player to call 2 bets to continue. If he really had a monster he would probably call the flop and c/r the turn like a good little predictable straight-forward player. A bluff is unlikly as the combination of the fish and your tightness/strength is going to keep him pretty honest.
I might just 3-bet him right there. You're only really beat by AQ. Once he checks the river you can pretty much rule that out. Easy bet.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
If he really had a monster he would probably call the flop and c/r the turn like a good little predictable straight-forward player.
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Nice to have you back Fnord 
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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jo
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Straight
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 166
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That's some great advice Fnord. Viewing the hand from the villain's perspective on the flop makes his intentions much clearer.
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