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demo of failure to protect your hand

  
 
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 10-27-2004, 10:27 PM     Post subject: demo of failure to protect your hand #1 (permalink)  
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Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Qd, Qs.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 9c, As, 5s (7 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (11.50 BB) Th (6 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls.

River: (15.50 BB) 6s (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, CO 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 21.50 BB
Main Pot: 21.50 BB, between BB, CO and Hero. > Pot won by CO (21.50 BB).

Results in white below:
BB has 3d 6c (one pair, sixes).
CO has 2s 3s (flush, ace high).
Hero has Qd Qs (one pair, queens).
Outcome: CO wins 21.50 BB.

i don't think anyone will disagree with my preflop play, but i'm not so sure about my flop play. after UTG+1 bet, and then a caller, my raise was a bad move. even calling 2 bets, everyone is getting 4:1 odds, good enough for all flush draws.

turn play, this was just bad...very bad. i should have tried for a check raise here.

well river play, the pot is big, i might as well keep up the aggression with a check-raise. actually at this point it didn't matter what do, i already screwed up the entire hand. the turn was where i coulda saved myself.
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lonnie
Old 10-27-2004, 10:43 PM #2 (permalink)  
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BUTCHERED!!

Preflop: fine

Flop: I would bet into this flop. With 7 players in the hand, you have to think you're behind at this point with the A on board, let alone the flush draw. If you get raised, call the raise. I doubt you get raised though.

Turn: Check, then fold if bet into.

River: The 3rd spade hits. You gotta figure anyone left in the hand either for an A or flush draw. You really should get rid of this hand at the river. Instead you lose 3 more BB's. OUCH
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Old 10-27-2004, 10:48 PM #3 (permalink)  
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for one thing, if i just called the flop bet instead of raise, everyone behind me would just call.

turn comes, i check, someone will bet for sure, i raise, making 2 or 3 people cold call. this would encourage all people with the aces to fold when they have low kickers, thus i'm trying to buy myself some outs here. also, a cold call on the turn wouldn't be a profitible call anymore for flush draws.

yet, what pisses me off most is the guy shouldn't even be playing 23s to begin with! he doesn't even have position! ah well, that's party for ya.
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lonnie
Old 10-27-2004, 10:55 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
for one thing, if i just called the flop bet instead of raise, everyone behind me would just call.
I said that you should've bet on the flop, not called. Your hand certainly was not worthy of a check raise.

I think you are just too far behind in this hand to catch up. You are talking about the flush draw odds for them, but what kind of odds do you have to win the pot at any point during the hand except preflop?

This type of play may work in a 15/30 game, but it has no chance at the 50 cent table.
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 10-27-2004, 11:23 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lhoney2
I said that you should've bet on the flop, not called. Your hand certainly was not worthy of a check raise.

I think you are just too far behind in this hand to catch up. You are talking about the flush draw odds for them, but what kind of odds do you have to win the pot at any point during the hand except preflop?

This type of play may work in a 15/30 game, but it has no chance at the 50 cent table.
i'm not so sure about the bet, the pot is just so big everyone is going to call whether i bet or not. at least if i check i can see if someone made a hand, cuz if someone bets from middle position they probably hit something they like.

it's likely that many people out there have aces and kings since there are so many players. the ace is out already, so there's a good chance someone hit it, but most likely with a crappy kicker. i think a check-raise on the turn would have gotten those people to fold, just simply because they will be afraid of the two flush and being outkicked.

what's most surprising is my play almost worked (even with my flop and turn errors). i thinned the field from 7 players to 3 players by the river. and one of them folded on the river too.
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Fnord
Old 10-28-2004, 12:24 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Pre-flop: Standard
Flop: Interesting. I don't dislike the check/raise here. The pot is f'n huge and you have a good chance of having the best hand. If you get 3-bet the turn had better be a Queen. Having the Qs is nice because it gives you 2 clean outs and a weak backdoor flush draw.
Turn: Standard, check/raising again would be silly.
River: Here is where you screwed the pooch. Check/raising when such a broad range of hands beat you (including the flush draw that just got there) in a multi-pot is throwing away money. CO will almost never bluff in this spot since the pot is protected.

Check/call1/fold2
Bet/call1/fold2
are both far better river lines

The biggest problem here is that your thought process involves people folding hands they shouldn't in a game with a texture of players that call too much. Stop trying to fold them out and learn to love the loose call and great odds to chase back at them.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Fnord
Old 10-28-2004, 12:46 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lhoney2
Flop: I would bet into this flop. With 7 players in the hand, you have to think you're behind at this point with the A on board, let alone the flush draw. If you get raised, call the raise. I doubt you get raised though.

Turn: Check, then fold if bet into.
At a higher limit either of these lines risks folding to a flush draw. If the pot was smaller, this would not be a problem but with so much money in the pot we need to assume we have the best hand until shown more aggression than this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hypermegachi
yet, what pisses me off most is the guy shouldn't even be playing 23s to begin with! he doesn't even have position! ah well, that's party for ya.
If this pisses you off, you're playing the wrong game. It's a WONDERFUL thing!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Old 10-28-2004, 01:05 AM #8 (permalink)  
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thanks of the advice fnord, but can you explain more about why a check raise on the turn would be silly?

the turn was a blank, so wouldn't you wanna encourage all the flush drawers to fold with a check raise?
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Fnord
Old 10-28-2004, 01:12 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hypermegachi
thanks of the advice fnord, but can you explain more about why a check raise on the turn would be silly?
Because if you have the best hand, it's probably getting checked through. Giving a free card with the best hand here would be a disaster. Also, a player with a better hand might 3-bet you if you c/r. However, passive players will often make a big mistake by just calling your bet with a better hand (Ace). Given this, you also can think about laying down to a turn raise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hypermegachi
the turn was a blank, so wouldn't you wanna encourage all the flush drawers to fold with a check raise?
They won't, nor should they. Get out of your mind this perverse idea of forcing flush draws to fold in a limit game. Particularly in a big multi-pot. This kind of thinking is just costing you money.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Old 10-28-2004, 01:15 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by hypermegachi
the turn was a blank, so wouldn't you wanna encourage all the flush drawers to fold with a check raise?
They won't, nor should they. Get out of your mind this perverse idea of forcing flush draws to fold in a limit game. Particularly in a big multi-pot. This kind of thinking is just costing you money.
i've probably been readin too much sklansky haha...
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Fnord
Old 10-28-2004, 01:16 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hypermegachi
i've probably been readin too much sklansky haha...
Where does he say this? Not in any books I'm aware of...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Old 10-28-2004, 01:23 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by hypermegachi
i've probably been readin too much sklansky haha...
Where does he say this? Not in any books I'm aware of...
SSH, pg. 163

this is the example about the KK losing to a rivered gutshot straight.

basically, a bet on the flop still gives people great odds to call, so you should call the bet, not raise. the only chance you have to protect your hand is on the turn where the bets double. here, cold calling isn't profitable for gutshots anymore, and flush drawers are borderline.
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Fnord
Old 10-28-2004, 01:29 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hypermegachi
SSH, pg. 163

this is the example about the KK losing to a rivered gutshot straight.

basically, a bet on the flop still gives people great odds to call, so you should call the bet, not raise. the only chance you have to protect your hand is on the turn where the bets double. here, cold calling isn't profitable for gutshots anymore, and flush drawers are borderline.
Note, he says nothing about forcing the flush draw to fold. Mostly raising big pots in limit is forcing random pairs, gutshots, small pocket pairs that missed and other weak draws to make a big mistake by calling or fold.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 10-28-2004, 01:39 AM #14 (permalink)  
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|~|ypermegachi
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Note, he says nothing about forcing the flush draw to fold. Mostly raising big pots in limit is forcing random pairs, gutshots, small pocket pairs that missed and other weak draws to make a big mistake by calling or fold.
oh...i just thought he meant trying to give people bad pot odds to make their calls unprofitable.

after the flop, if i just called the bet, the pot would be 9BB. well in this situation i probably still couldn't get the flush drawers to call unprofitably, because UTG+1 would bet, MP2 and CO will call, and if i raise they will be getting 13:1 pot odds.

well i guess there was no way out of this one. i should have just called the river bet, that's for sure.
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