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Fnord
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08-27-2007, 06:09 AM
Post subject: Defensive Donking
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#1 (permalink)
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My image is tight/passivish.
LAgg limps, I raise AK, uber-passive 3-bets, 2 players cold call, one of the blinds call, LAgg caps it for fun, everyone calls.
Flop is TT5r, check to me and I donk into the guy expected to bet who just calls. I don't think anyone folded.
Turn is an 8, checked to me and I bet out again, a couple players might have folded.
River is a 5. Checked to me yet again and I check to consider calling a bet.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
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I think this is quite a bit different than the previous hand because you are betting into the expected bettor with what could be the best hand and you improve your chances significantly if you get folds from small pp's and 8s. The last time none of that was really true for T-Lag.
So what is your plan for calling/folding? I'd have a hard time folding to anything but a bet and a raise behind me.
With any luck the first cold caller will hit three pair with his 22 and bet the river. LAG will fold his 76s, Uber-passive will fold his QQ, and you can take the pot.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
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What is your flop bet supposed to accomplish? He probably has a pocket pair that he won't fold on this flop; I see no reason to allow him to raise.
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Fnord
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
With any luck the first cold caller will hit three pair with his 22 and bet the river. LAG will fold his 76s, Uber-passive will fold his QQ, and you can take the pot.
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LMAO, this is never happening.
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
What is your flop bet supposed to accomplish?
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Define other people's hands clearly so I don't have a difficult decision if I check and face a bet + raise. Players in this game might raise the flop light, but a 3-bet means buisness.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
With any luck the first cold caller will hit three pair with his 22 and bet the river. LAG will fold his 76s, Uber-passive will fold his QQ, and you can take the pot.
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LMAO, this is never happening. |
Don't be ridiculous. I see this all the time playing 1/2 at stars. 
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
What is your flop bet supposed to accomplish?
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Define other people's hands clearly so I don't have a difficult decision if I check and face a bet + raise. Players in this game might raise the flop light, but a 3-bet means buisness.
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Ah i see. Give Ubey a chance to raise so if it's 3bet you can smell a T or big overpair. Makes sense, esp. since the pot is so big.
Not so clear on the turn bet though. what's your thought process here?
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Fnord
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Not so clear on the turn bet though. what's your thought process here?
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If he didn't raise me on the flop I may as well bet the turn. Also, I thought there was a snowball chance in hell of setting up some sort of win on the river.
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elipsesjeff
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This is an interesting hand. I'd be more willing to play it passive but your turn bet here folds out all the garbage like 88-99 and possibly missed overcards such as your own. If anyone does have a Ten they're raising you.
The river is unusual but you built the pot so big you can't fold with Ace high here for one bet. I wouldn't be surprised you up against JJ or weak 99 here, but I'd have a hard time putting you on missed AK.
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Fnord
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On the river, I checked, Mr. Passive bet and was called by 2 or 3 players. I figured AK no g00t and folded.
When I re-visited this hand to write it up, I wondered if folding pre-flop when it was 2 bets back to me was the right play. I certainly think AQo is a fold.
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elipsesjeff
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well, when you call two you're going to have to hit to win. Which is why i may have taken the free card. You'll flop an Ace enough to make it good and prly get called by worse Axs.
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Fnord
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Which is why i may have taken the free card.
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The big pair was acting behind me. Although he's too much of a pussy to raise, I doubt he lets the turn check through.
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DrivingDog
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I don't mind the flop bet so much but the turn bet i don't really agree with. Since Uber-P 3bet preflop, we're almost certainly behind to someone here and there's no reason to try to protect a 0-6 out hand. Let someone else bet and if it's more than one bet back to you fold. It's cheaper than the bet/fold to a raise line.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Fnord
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
It's cheaper than the bet/fold to a raise line.
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You're assuming it's checked behind a fair % of the time. I wasn't feeling it.
Anyway, the 3-bettor had QQ which probably is the bottom of his range. No one else showed. If I put the 3-bet at QQ+, should I fold pre-flop when it's 2 back to me?
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DrivingDog
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Full House
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
It's cheaper than the bet/fold to a raise line.
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You're assuming it's checked behind a fair % of the time. I wasn't feeling it. |
Maybe i wasn't clear. I mean it's cheaper to fold when you check and it's two bets back to you than to bet out and fold to a raise.
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Anyway, the 3-bettor had QQ which probably is the bottom of his range. No one else showed. If I put the 3-bet at QQ+, should I fold pre-flop when it's 2 back to me?
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If his 3betting range is ONLY QQ+ and you were HU, the probability ('p') he has QQ = 0.5, p(KK)= 0.25, and p(AA) =0.25. For every other A or K out there QQ becomes increasingly likely, and for every other Q the converse is true, which is worth considering in a five way capped pot since sensible opponents are much more likely to be holding an A or K than a Q. Obviously, every other A or K out also reduces the chances of you hitting a pair on the turn or river when you miss the flop, which might be worth keeping in mind on certain boards.
So I'm not folding AK preflop getting 9:1 to call two bets since he'll have QQ at least half the time. But I am definitely calling it quits if a Q hits at any point (we'd be drawing dead to QQ and AA about and nearly dead to KK) unless i had a good (i.e., not backdoor) gutshot or flush draw. And obviously i'd be prepared to fold if i did hit and he gave a lot of action, because we can safely assume Uber-Passives don't raise with an overcard to their pp on board.
Interestingly, it doesn't make that much difference if his range includes AKs, since you have AK in your hand. If you were HU, p(QQ) = .43, p(KK) = .21, p(AA) = .21, p(AKs) = .14. The 1/7 chance of him holding AKs only makes it harder to read his action postflop and harder to fold in a pot this big if you miss.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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elipsesjeff
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Arent you getting like 11-1 if I did my math correctly?
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
246,571,776 games 0.047 secs 5,246,208,000 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.858% 30.48% 00.38% 75160284 927000.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 69.142% 68.77% 00.38% 169557492 927000.00 { QQ+ }
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Fnord
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k, pre-flop call it is. GAMB00L!
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