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Defending against possible blindsteal.

  
 
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Mr_Pokah
Old 11-02-2006, 01:05 AM     Post subject: Defending against possible blindsteal. #1 (permalink)  
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Hi everyone! New to these boards. I'll start off with a HH:

Villian is a solid, tight agressive player (2+2 poster) with 24/17/2.5 stats. He attacks blinds frequently.

Prima Poker skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with
UTG folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.5SB, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO calls.

Turn: (4.25BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Spewing?

River: (6.25BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

Results:
Final pot: 6.25BB

Am I looking at an ace often enough against this type player to make this play a longterm loser?
Would you have played it differently?
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Xanadu
Old 11-02-2006, 01:21 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Problem is that after the turn falls a Q, the only hands you beat in a typical range here are K8s, K9, J9s, and the pocket pairs. Many many more hands he raises beat you.
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Mr_Pokah
Old 11-02-2006, 12:39 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Yeah, the turn card wasn't a good one. Would you have check/folded the turn?
"Depend on the rabbit's foot if you will, but remember it didn't work for the rabbit. "
 
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dsaxton
Old 11-02-2006, 07:27 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I think this looks good. Bet-folding the turn is far better than checking.
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sinky
Old 11-03-2006, 09:58 AM #5 (permalink)  
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T9 is right on the end of the range of hands I would defend my BB with. Against a solid opponent who raised from the CO I would fold pre flop.

On the turn, I agree that bet/fold is better than check/call. But both are -EV. So with only 4.25BB in the pot should we just check / fold the turn. Assuming his stealing range is around 35%, you have to consider what hands you are ahead of that he did not fold on the flop. The factor that makes the biggest difference is whether he will fold 22-66. If he does then you only ahead on the turn ~ 10% of the time and should fold. If he is going to call down with 66-22 then you are ahead ~18 % of the time and should continue.
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Xanadu
Old 11-03-2006, 03:56 PM #6 (permalink)  
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After further review, I think bet/fold the turn and check/call the river is the most reasonable line. From plugging a reasonable range (32% pfr) into pokerstove and assuming villain calls your flop raise with anything, your hand equity is about 28% on the turn. Just enough to call down both streets. But bet/fold on the turn is superior because I can't see villain raising the turn with a hand you beat unless he has already seen you check/raise the flop then bet/fold the turn. This way, you save a bet sometimes when behind. Just don't run the same line soon, because a solid player will definitely notice this play if you fold the turn.
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Mr_Pokah
Old 11-05-2006, 01:37 PM #7 (permalink)  
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What do you guys think of betting out on the flop instead of checkraising?
I think i could lay down the hand on this board if i get raised on the flop (not a very drawy bord) against this opponent.
"Depend on the rabbit's foot if you will, but remember it didn't work for the rabbit. "
 
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