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Lance
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03-03-2009, 06:44 PM
Post subject: decisions 2
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 210
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PokerStars Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
villain 26/19/1.9
Preflop: Hero is Button with 7 , 7
2 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bet, 2 folds, CO calls
Flop: (6.5 SB) 4 , Q, 8 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bet, CO calls
Turn: (8.5 SB) 9
CO checks, Hero ?
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"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe" (Albert Einstein)
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Pretty easy b/f imo. He could be peeling the flop will all kinds of junk.
If he calls the turn, i probably check behind on the river.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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asdpikas
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,056
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Pretty easy b/f imo. He could be peeling the flop will all kinds of junk.
If he calls the turn, i probably check behind on the river.
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+1
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Airles™
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 317
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A lot of guys will donk bet the river when you check behind the turn.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
The solution to getting 1 outered is a simple one. We just need to find the site that is the least rigged.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by asdpikas
Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Pretty easy b/f imo. He could be peeling the flop will all kinds of junk.
If he calls the turn, i probably check behind on the river.
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+1 |
+2
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Airles
A lot of guys will donk bet the river when you check behind the turn.
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then call or raise, depending on your read of player. however, your read had better be very solid to raise here, imo.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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asdpikas
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,056
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Airles™
A lot of guys will donk bet the river when you check behind the turn.
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checking turn is the worst u can do. Its a bet or bet situation cause your hand is too vulnerable to overcards. More than half the deck hurts u, so giving free cards is not an option, imo
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Airles™
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 317
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Oh for sure. I rarely, if ever, give a free turn card. I was just implying that if that was the situation, you would then have a river decision to make - hence the topic title "decisions".
When I do check behind on the turn, it's usually against an aggro opponent who may be looking to c/r me. I actually did this a few times last night, and it turned out all 3 times I was right. What's more is that I improved on the river and got into a betting war on 2 of the hands. The other, I folded and saved myself a bet. Obviously against calling stations, I'm just betting all day with any type of hand.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
The solution to getting 1 outered is a simple one. We just need to find the site that is the least rigged.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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if you do check behind on the turn, asd and socal will personally hunt you down. lol.
but, seriously, if you do, i still dont think you have much of a decision to make. you have just induced a super wide range to donk the river on you. you absolutely have to call if they fire.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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asdpikas
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,056
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
if you do check behind on the turn, asd and socal will personally hunt you down. lol.
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Indeed
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
but, seriously, if you do, i still dont think you have much of a decision to make. you have just induced a super wide range to donk the river on you. you absolutely have to call if they fire.
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Indeed
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LawDude
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 940
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If I understand the HUD statistics correctly, this is a fairly loose villain, right? So he may be raising a wide range of hands from the cut-off, and calling three bets with a wide range as well.
Further, no aggression on the flop. So he could be slowplaying a set or 2 pair, but more likely he either missed or didn't flop top pair. So I suspect as of the flop he either has a pair of 4's, a pair of 8's, an ace or a king, two pair (queens up), or a set. He might also have JT, J9, or T9 and be calling with a gutshot.
We're ahead of enough of that range, even after the 9 on the river (which may have completed his straight or given him 2 pair), to justify betting the turn. If we bet, we may get to find out if we aren't ahead of the villain in the form of a check-raise which we will fold to. Plus, the bet on the turn may induce another check on the river.
This isn't a fun place to be in, as there are plenty of times you are going to lose this pot, but I would bet the turn.
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asdpikas
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,056
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
If I understand the HUD statistics correctly, this is a fairly loose villain, right?
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i would say he is pretty tight, imo. Not excesive, but PFR<20 is definitely not loose.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
So he may be raising a wide range of hands from the cut-off, and calling three bets with a wide range as well.
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Att to steal stats would be useful here, the part about calling 3bets i dont get... who raises and folds for 1more bet in a cash game?
RE his range, with a high AF like his, and solid stats, i doubt he will try sloplaying oop, so i would almoooost rule out sets and 2pair hands, maybe even Qx without further reads, but who knows.
To me it looks more like 8x, 4x, low PPs, a couple gutshots and decent Ahi hands, most of the time.
To me its not a tough spot, it seems pretty str8forward. Without reads, you bet the turn, fold to a c/r, and if he just calls, take free sd on river.
I know hero wont always win the pot, but decisions here seem pretty easy, which is always nice. Different reads may complicate things a bit more.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LawDude
If I understand the HUD statistics correctly, this is a fairly loose villain, right? So he may be raising a wide range of hands from the cut-off, and calling three bets with a wide range as well.
Further, no aggression on the flop. So he could be slowplaying a set or 2 pair, but more likely he either missed or didn't flop top pair. So I suspect as of the flop he either has a pair of 4's, a pair of 8's, an ace or a king, two pair (queens up), or a set. He might also have JT, J9, or T9 and be calling with a gutshot.
We're ahead of enough of that range, even after the 9 on the river (which may have completed his straight or given him 2 pair), to justify betting the turn. If we bet, we may get to find out if we aren't ahead of the villain in the form of a check-raise which we will fold to. Plus, the bet on the turn may induce another check on the river.
This isn't a fun place to be in, as there are plenty of times you are going to lose this pot, but I would bet the turn.
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to continue from asd's comment...
i think this is completely overthinking a simple hand. say what you guys want about me not loving the 3bet with AJ earlier, but this is very black and white, imo. no maths really required.
you have position, you have initiative, a ragged and dry flop, and he may have picked up his draw on the turn....if he has even that. you bet until he tells you to stop and assume he missed or is weak until you get the c/r. and, the only hands i check behind on the river are clubs, J's, T's, and possibly overs like the A. Q or K and i probably still bet and fold to the c/r w/o a read that villain will bluff/raise river cards.
simple.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
|
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