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Hermann the Lombard
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09-15-2007, 03:23 AM
Post subject: Cowboys and . . .
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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Micro-limit, no reads unfortunately, just a feeling...
Hero is MP1 with :Ks: :Kc:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 1 fold, Hero re-raises, 3 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls
Flop:  :Th: 
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, Button re-raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero...
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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I hate fearing I'm beaten and paying to have my fears confirmed.
But i do it here.. dunno, you can probably get to see the cards for 2 more big bets, don't think anyone but the button is doing any raising from here on in. Unless A/K/Q hits... UTG+1 didn't 3-bet pre-flop, think you have them beat. Button. Dunno. Difficult. Ten-Ten, 9Ten, 99, another over pair, straight draw - hard to know what they would have to call two bets pre-flop then 3-bet this flop. Think you're likely behind and hoping for a king but I call with fingers crossed....
Looking forward to being told I'm stupid 
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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I see too many guys going ape here with QQ, JJ, QJ, AT, to be hitting the panic button just yet. Only hands you're behind are AA, TT, T9, 99, and of those the only ones that make sense preflop are TT and 99. I guess it's possible someone had an AA they decided not to cap preflop for some reason.
With this board there's 4 ways someone can have TT or 99 and 36 ways they can have QQ, JJ, QJ, AT. Add six ways to have AA if you want to be conservative and you're still ahead of both opponents well more than 50% of the time at this point.
Ran out of fingers to count on but if i'm right you're getting 13:1 on the flop call. Paying one more BB on the turn and river gives you 26:5 or a little over 5:1. I'll take HTL at 5:1 please Monty. A c/r on the turn sounds appealing because it costs the same as calling down the turn and river and if it gets 3bet you can probably fold. Of course that assumes your opponents would only 3bet with hands that have you beat and that's not always a safe assumption.
If i take the calling down route, then the only thing getting me out of this pot is a T on the turn or river and/or a LOT of heavy action.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Hermann the Lombard
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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Hero folds.
Believe me, I'm not calling anyone stupid! Maybe I had more of a read than I thought I did, or I was blinded by the flashing red "Murphy's Law" light. I don't remember the turn or the river, but I do know they didn't change the results.
UTG+1 showed :Qs: :Qc: for two pair
Button showed  :Td:
You both put that as a possible if unlikely hand. Personally, I was thinking TT or 99 as the real hand didn't make sense PF. Go figure.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Calling 3bets cold preflop with T9 is unbelievably bad. I would never put anyone on that in a million years...From now on just assume that player will be in every pot with two random cards.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Hermann the Lombard
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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You've got that right, and you'd better believe he's marked in my online notes! It's just one of those things when a loose passive player (which most of them are at this level) suddenly comes to life and there's a sudden odor of rodent...
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