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elipsesjeff

08-26-2005, 08:11 PM Post subject: A couple Middle Pair examples

#1 (permalink)

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elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point

Against Good Opponents:

PE has villain as 26.4/10.4 over 10k hands. (bthomas from 2+2)

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (6 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7

, 7

.
3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, Hero 3-bets, [color:#666666]3 folds[/color], MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (10.66 SB) 4

, 8

, J

[color:#0000FF](3 players)[/color]
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6.33 BB) 2

(2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks.

River: (6.33 BB) 9

(2 players)
MP3 checks, [color:#CC3333]Hero bets[/color], MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 8.33 BB

Results in white below:
MP3 has Qh Ad (high card, ace).
Hero has 7s 7d (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins 8.33 BB.

Checking the turn led him to call me on the river, although he may had done it anyway but I doubt it; I've played with him alot.

Same Table, shortly after last hand. PE has villain as 22.1/15.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (6 max, 8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9

, 9

. UTG posts a blind of $15.
Hero raises, MP1 3-bets, 5 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) 5

, 3

, 2

(3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.83 BB) 2

(3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls.

River: (7.83 BB) A

(3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.83 BB

Results in white below:
BB doesn't show.
Hero has 9c 9h (two pair, nines and twos).
MP1 has 8c 8h (two pair, eights and twos).
Outcome: Hero wins 11.83 BB.

That river card scared me, i'm sure he knew what I had I was pretty sure he too had a hand like mine.

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koolmoe

08-26-2005, 08:54 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Hand 1: Trying to learn something here - What are the drawbacks to betting the turn? I sure don't want to give overcards a free card.

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Shark Bait

08-26-2005, 09:32 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Posts: 481

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

Hand 1: Trying to learn something here - What are the drawbacks to betting the turn? I sure don't want to give overcards a free card.

Yes, checking the turn very often makes people bet on the river with either nothing or a crappy pair, but better than yours. So my question is, what do you do if MP3 bets the river in hand 1? What if the river was a 6 instead of a 9?

<a500lbgorilla> Limit is poker with training wheels!

Trikflow77

08-26-2005, 10:53 PM

#4 (permalink)

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with mid pairs i look for semi connecting flop texture to play them strong after the flop.. .................flush draw, straight draw......blah. the key to playing these well is reading the board, a k82 rainbow board will not get any drawing calls so if oyu bet with 66 and get call, raised whatever, you are most likely behind.

Demiparadigm

08-27-2005, 02:11 AM

#5 (permalink)

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Hand 1:

Quote:

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (6 max, 9 handed)

Is this 6 max or 9 handed? I am assuming 9 handed.

Assume you put villain on exactly A

Then betting the turn will get you the same amount of bets as betting a safe card on the river...

(Will post more later)

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

Demiparadigm

08-27-2005, 05:06 AM

#6 (permalink)

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The turn check is a mortal sin over at 2+2...
I agree with Koolmoe, I hate giving free cards.
That being said, lets do some math:
We must first give Villain a likely range of hands.
What do we know about MP2, and his range of open-limp hands in this position? Is MP3 trying to isolate? If so,
88-TT are very possible holdings
also, AQ, KQ.

AK and JJ are discounted because there was no flop cap.
AJ would have most likely raised the flop.
KJ, QJ are possible, but also less likely because MP3's raise was after MP2 called, so we have to put him on a legitimate raising hand, unless he is likely to isolate MP2 with marginal holdings.

There are 16 ways to make AQ and KQ each.
There are 4 ways to make each of the pairs. (88-TT)
I am making a huge assumption and saying that the small chance he has a jack is cancelled out by the chance he has AK. Also, the chace he has another unmentioned hand is marginal.
This gives us a total of 44 likely combinations.

2 of the combinations of AQ,KQ have us beat. (the diamonds)
for a total of 14 combinations we are behind.
12 of the combinations have a better flush draw than we do.
AQ and KQ have overcard draws.

Here's a bunch more Assumptions:
If we bet the turn-
88 and the flushes checkraise, and we fold. (I know, Jeff never folds)
99 folds (fold equity is important)
TT calls (this assumption should balance the times TT folds or 99calls)
The flush draws call, The others fold.
If a fourth diamond or comes on the river, the flushes bet, and we call.
(including the 3 different TT possible flushes)
Otherwise we check behind and beat the other TT.
If a fourth diamond does not come on the river, we check behind and beat the draws.
If one of the overcard draws comes in, Villain will bet, and we fold. (I am assuming Villain will only bet if he has a hand that beats us if a non-diamond overcard comes, therefore a fold is correct)

If we check the turn-
The flushes, 99 and TT bet the river and we call.
Missed draws check, we bet, AQ calls, KQ folds.
Hands that caught an overcard bet, and we call.

If Villain has a flush draw, there is an 8/44 chance a diamond will come on the river. This should also approximate the chance that
A) Villain already has a flush
B) Villain does not have a flush draw.
There are also 5 overcard outs which will cause us to lose on the river. (one is a diamond which gives us a flush) This gives Villain a total of 13/44 outs.

Soooo.....

When we bet the turn:
6/44 times we bet, and fold to a checkraise. (-1BB)
22/44 times we win when 99, KQ, AQ folds (+6.5BBs)
12/44 times we are called by a flush draw
4/44 times we are called by TT

-If a fourth diamond comes on the river (8/44 chance)
15/44 times we will call a bet for a total loss of (-2BBs)
1/44 times we will check behind for a total loss of (-1BB)

-If an overcard comes on the river (5/44 chance)
12/44 times we will fold for a total loss of (-1BB)
4/44 times we check behind and lose (-1BB)

-If an out does not come on the river (31/44 chance)
12/44 times we check behind and win for a total of (+7.5BBs)
4/44 times we check behind and lose for a total loss of (-1BB)

Therefore we have
[-6 + 22(6.5)]/44 = 3.11
8/44[(15/44)(-2) + (1/44)(-1)] = (-0.13)
31/44[12/44(7.5) + 4/44(-1)] = 1.38
16/44(5/44)(-1) = (-0.04)
3.11 - 0.13 + 1.6 = total equity of 4.32BBs for a turn bet

When we check the turn:
13/44(12/44) times Villain improves, and we lose (-1BB)
5/44(20/44) times Villain improves, and we lose (-1BB)
31/44(6/44) times Villain doesn’t improve and calls our bet (+7.5BBs)
31/44(6/44) times Villain doesn’t improve and folds (+6.5BBs)
39/44(10/44) times Villain doesn’t improve and calls our bet (+7.5BBs)
39/44(10/44) times Villain doesn’t improve and folds (+6.5BBs)
12/44 times Villain had us beat on the turn, bets and we call (-1BB)

Therefore we have
(-0.08)+(-0.05)+ 0.72 + 0.62 + 1.51 + 1.31 +(-0.27)= 3.76BBs equity checking the turn.

So using these assumptions, A turn bet is clearly more correct, due to the fold equity on the medium pairs, and the free cards given to overcards.
Even if we were to fold the river each time villain had us beat, our equity would only increase to 4.16BBs, still less than forcing our opponent to fold on the turn.

What do you think?

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

jmontis

08-27-2005, 05:24 AM

#7 (permalink)

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Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 1,296

jesus man, I can hardly comprehend that

a total equity of 4.32 bb for a turn bet, over how many hands? infinite?

I'm crushing $1-2 6 max and $2-4 ring and think I know a lot about limit, that post alone puts me in my place.

I think it's more simple than that, bet the turn when you aren't raised on the flop

That's how I do it, and usually check/bet the river depending on the players personality (deceptive, aggressive, tricky) whatever

take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately

elipsesjeff

08-27-2005, 05:43 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Posts: 4,900

You didn't incorporate the liklihood of a turn check/raise bluff by a thinking opponent. But, I do like your analysis. I HAVE to fold here to a turn check/raise when I could spend the same amount and get him to showdown. There might also be further implications of this play affecting my future as well, especially if he thinks I'm a maniac:

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (6 max, 7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q

, 6

.
5 folds, SB raises, Hero calls.

Flop: (4 SB) Q

, J

, K

(2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) Q

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) 6

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 8 BB

Results in white below:
Hero has Qc 6c (full house, queens full of sixes).
SB has 2h Kh (two pair, kings and queens).
Outcome: Hero wins 8 BB.

That play was like less than 5 hands or so after the 1st one and he was on semi-tilt with me. Normally, he would fold the turn here.

With middle pairs I want to see a showdown for as cheaply as possible, I'm not interested in winning/losing big pots with them unless I hit a set. I want a HU relatively cheap showdown. I'm calling any bet on the river while the likelihood of him folding two over cards to a known maniac like me on the turn is rather slim.

I am very surprised he called me with the non-nut ace high hand, I've seen AK call this and possibly value bet the river. He did complement me (maybe sarcastically) on both the three bet preflop and the value bet on the river.

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Demiparadigm

08-27-2005, 05:50 AM

#9 (permalink)

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Join Date: Feb 2005

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Posts: 1,602

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmontis

jesus man, I can hardly comprehend that

a total equity of 4.32 bb for a turn bet, over how many hands? infinite?

Yes, assuming Villain's likely range of hands given the action up until the turn.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmontis

I'm crushing $1-2 6 max and $2-4 ring and think I know a lot about limit, that post alone puts me in my place.

That post alone increased my WPP by 1.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmontis

I think it's more simple than that, bet the turn when you aren't raised on the flop

That's how I do it, and usually check/bet the river depending on the players personality (deceptive, aggressive, tricky) whatever

It is generally accepted that it is better to bet the turn and check behind the river with a vulnerable hand with showdown potential.
It is also considered incorrect to bet if you would be forced to fold to a raise which is the case in this hand...
I just feel that your fold equity on the turn outweighs your desire to show down a vulnerable pair.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

elipsesjeff

08-27-2005, 10:00 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

I just feel that your fold equity on the turn outweighs your desire to show down a vulnerable pair.

Assume his stats are pretty much the same as mine, what would you do if check/raise on the turn? Also, What would you do with AK or AQ that is any different, then, what would you do with AK or AQ if check raised on the turn?

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Demiparadigm

08-28-2005, 02:53 AM

#11 (permalink)

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I agree if he is capable of a checkraise bluff, then a showdown is more desirable. You are forced to fold t oa checkraise.
I play AK the same as your 77, except I would be MORE inclined to bet the turn, to try to fold smaller pairs, though again, If I was afraid of a checkraise, checking behind is better.
I also don't bet the river with AK when checked to.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

koolmoe

08-28-2005, 07:05 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jun 2004

Location: Drowning in prosperity

Posts: 1,279

Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

With middle pairs I want to see a showdown for as cheaply as possible, I'm not interested in winning/losing big pots with them unless I hit a set. I want a HU relatively cheap showdown. I'm calling any bet on the river while the likelihood of him folding two over cards to a known maniac like me on the turn is rather slim.

There's the nugget I was looking for. Now a flop three with position makes perfect sense.

What do you do about a turn donkbet? Call down?

Poker is freedom

jmontis

08-28-2005, 09:15 PM

#13 (permalink)

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looking back, i'd bet the turn on hand 1 all day

hand 2 that river raise is balls (maybe borderline -ev?), I seem to run into a ragged ace or straight too often to want to try that.

take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately

elipsesjeff

08-29-2005, 04:57 AM

#14 (permalink)

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Location: Northern Virginia

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Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

What do you do about a turn donkbet? Call down?

I would be more apt to find a fold here, more than often he pulls over that Jack. Although, this is thinking about it later, I may very well call him down or at least see a river and maybe my diamond draw is good.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmontis

looking back, i'd bet the turn on hand 1 all day

Do you know the profitability of a turn checkraise bluff in this situation and how likely it is? He only has to be right 1/4 times to make it a profitable play. 1) I hate getting check raised 2) I hate getting check/raised and getting forced to fold 3) I hate getting check/raised when i know I was going to get check/raised but bet anyway.

A turn bet is for him to fold, not for value. With two overcards (which is exactly what I put him on, and most of the time for that matter) he is not folding for 1 bet, when it is correct to do so.

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A couple Middle Pair examples

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