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littleogre
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02-21-2007, 09:53 PM
Post subject: counting outs with over cards to the flop ?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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OK it is easy to counts out to a powerhouse like a str8 or flush but what about when you just have one or 2 overs how many outs is each over worth ? Also the pot is heads up and you are second to act. made up example below.
you AQ off
odd ??
you raise preflop and opp calls
flop 10/7/6 rainbow and opponent leads out how many outs are my AQ worth?
example 2 same exact situation but the flop is more coordinated. like lets say there are 2 suited cards. Right now i use the old sklansky method of cuting my outs in half. I know that is to tight at times and to loose at others.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Oh if there is a section of small stakes limit holdem that covers this topic feel free to point me there.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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raise for free cards in both
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
raise for free cards in both
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Ty for the reply but let me be more specific about the second hand. The 2 flush cards do not help you at at all. in both examples your only outs are the ace and queen.
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litetruck
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 78
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it really depends on what you put villain on...calculate your outs based on that.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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hand1: 6 outs
hand2: 5 outs (2.5 * 2)
raise both.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
hand1: 6 outs
hand2: 5 outs (2.5 * 2)
raise both.
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So you give each out full credit? I guess i have been playing to tight then. Don't we need to compensate for redraws and the unlikely possiblilty that they have 2 pair or better? If they 3bet do we assume they have 2 pair or better atleast in the first example and go from there? Or do we continue to play the hand like all outs are live. I'm not trying to argue just asking an honest question.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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i'm not giving full credit. you have 6 outs. only 2 of those outs are the bad suited card you don't want. half of that is 1. the other 4 outs are still good, they don't complete a flush. it's 5 outs, not 3.
if they 3 bet, it could mean a lot of things. if you're playing at the micros, usually it's best to call, and then fold the turn unimproved. at higher limits, people will do this with air.
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
Quote:
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Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
hand1: 6 outs
hand2: 5 outs (2.5 * 2)
raise both.
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So you give each out full credit? I guess i have been playing to tight then. Don't we need to compensate for redraws and the unlikely possiblilty that they have 2 pair or better? If they 3bet do we assume they have 2 pair or better atleast in the first example and go from there? Or do we continue to play the hand like all outs are live. I'm not trying to argue just asking an honest question. |
Yeah you can't give each out full credit, even on the rainbow flop. The reason is that (in the first hand), if someone has any of these possible hands: AT, A7, A6 or QT, hitting one of your two cards could make the villain 2 pair.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Ok ty to all for there replys. Now lets switch it up assume you are now first to act. My normal line is to bet call bet. I don't think a reraise is likely to get a fold here but should i be reraising for free cards?
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
Ok ty to all for there replys. Now lets switch it up assume you are now first to act. My normal line is to bet call bet. I don't think a reraise is likely to get a fold here but should i be reraising for free cards?
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you can't raise for free cards out of position...
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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If it's a tougher opponent my line OOP was this:
bet-call
donk
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Ok are you guys useing the multiply by 2 method? I always thought that was useless in limit and better served for NL
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
Ok are you guys useing the multiply by 2 method? I always thought that was useless in limit and better served for NL
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i have no idea where this "multiply by 2" came from. i'm assuming you mean 2% per out. in which case it applies to all hold'em type cames, NL, PL, and even omaha.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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well i guess i am trying to figure out how you guys are geting 6 outs without counting every out. in this hand i have the 2 overs the ace and the queen. That gives me 6 outs if i count every out 3 aces and 3 queens. so how are you guys geting 6 but saying you are not counting every out? as you guys know there are 2 kinda outs. Actual outs and estimated outs to win the hand. I can't remember what they are called. They are estimated because frankly we do not know if that ace or queen will win the pot. Skanlasky talks about it but i can't find that section in my book at the moment. You take the actual outs in this case 6 then factor in the chance that hiting one will actuall be good and also the chance of the bad guy redrawing on the river.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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You are trying to get to showdown as cheaply as possible unless your hand improves. Raise the flop, check thru the turn Unimproved.
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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My thoughts on this hand. I don't know exactly what Sklansky says for counting outs in this situation, but King Yao recommends counting each overcard as 2 outs, so saying that you have 4 outs total. However, depending on your opponent, you may very well still be ahead in the hand. I would kinda combine those two facts and play the hand as if I had about 5 outs. This is enough to make raising for a free card generally the best play. I don't think that the board being 2 suited really changes our play much at all except for the fact that there is a slightly higher chance that we are ahead in that case and up against a flush draw and we have to be a bit more worried if the flush hits later in the hand(though we aren't going crazy if we hit an A or Q anyway).
If you are instead out of position, your best play is probably to bet the flop and call the raise and then check/fold the turn unimproved.
Anybody saying that you can count all 6 outs as being good is wrong. Even my method of using 5 outs because we might still be ahead is possibly a bit high.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Ok so regardless of how we count the outs i am geting the sneaking suspicion that you guys want me to raise this hand?
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
Ok so regardless of how we count the outs i am geting the sneaking suspicion that you guys want me to raise this hand?
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WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Yes
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Ok lets switch things yet again. Assume we have AK off and raise only to be reraised by someone in lp. We call as we would be geting atleast 5-1. Do we bet call or check call? In shourt should his pf reraise slow us down on the flop?
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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You call the flop and fold the turn unimproved. I think someone already typed that earlier in this thread. I usually take AK to showdown either way, but it just sucks OOP when you flop air.
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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i belive that was you bigspenda. I'm asking do we still lead out on the flop or should his reraise scare us into just check calling? Just wanting to know if his pf reraise should make me play the flop more passively.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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sooner or later, the correct answer will be... it depends.
realize that you are asking questions about very generic situations. you have not mentioned anything about your opponent. are they good players? bad players? running hot? on tilt?
it depends on who your opponent is. it depends on table texture, and it depends on your opponent's perception of you. and it also depends whether your opponent is paying enough attention to notice what you're doing.
in a sense, all raising/folding/calling could potentially be the correct answer. more often than not, betting/raising is usually the better play because
a) if you are behind you will suck out on them
b) if you are behind they will obviously fold the better hand cuz you got the g00ds
c) if you are ahead they will obviously call you down with nothing
d) they can raise and make your decision to fold a lot easier when you don't improve
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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typical low stakes players that are not to aggressive. I know my question is very general but for the most part general mundane play works at low stakes.
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Prolaznik
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 40
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Nice thread, but one thing confuses me...
It seems that you all consider two flush board less favorable than rainbow. Why?
I mean, we have only one opponent and position. He could have 4 flush, but the probability is less than 10%. In remaining more than 90%, we have a chance to use the threat somehow - sometimes even we'd force him to drop A7!
I think that two flush board brings more gains than drawbacks to us, in this situation...
And one concrete question:
Lets say, there are two hearts on the flop. Deuce heart turns and he checks...
Do you bet? (I would)
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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ok lets change the situation yet one more time. you have the 2 overs and get check raised. Personally unless the pot is really big like 10-1 or better i will not even bother to see a turn card as most low stakes limit players will not cr with anything less 2 pair. i usually need some draws to go with my 2 overs to call.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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As you move up a c/r can mean many many things from a set to TPTK to a draw to air. A flop c/r to me is all about how your opponent perceives your tendency to fire again at the turn.
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