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Common steal situation in the small blind.

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dsaxton

03-02-2008, 11:59 PM Post subject: Common steal situation in the small blind.

#1 (permalink)

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Opponent is unknown.

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K

, 5

.
4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) T

, 4

, 8

(2 players)
Hero bets

This bet most likely has negative expectation. Discuss.

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Jibalob

03-03-2008, 08:59 AM

#2 (permalink)

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1) You are out of position, you will likely lose more when behind than you will gain while ahead.

2) That flop hits all the kinds of hands that BB would typically call with and has missed your hand completely.

3) The pot is small

PLEASE READ ULTIMATE BET THREAD IN "ONLINE POKER ROOMS" FORUM
Wait, this is .05/.10 and you got sexied, I can't believe that shit, limit must really be dying.[/quote]

DrivingDog

03-03-2008, 10:02 AM

#3 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Jibalob

For the sake of argument:
1) A good reason not to raise K5o preflop.

2) BB should be calling a raise with all sorts of hands since a lot of people raise crap like K5 preflop from the SB in 5/10. I routinely get raised by guys with K5, 98, J4s, etc.

3) SB is still getting 4:1 on the bet. If BB folds the flop he shows an immediate profit. SB could also have the best hand or could improve to the best hand.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Fnord

03-03-2008, 10:13 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Checking here is almost never correct.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

VinceSincere

03-03-2008, 12:48 PM

#5 (permalink)

Join Date: May 2007

Posts: 24

Because of the positional disadvantage, I probably wouldn't attempt a steal with K5o in the first place. From the button, its a borderline stealing hand, and would be highly dependent on my read on the blinds.

I notice that a lot of people don't seem to realize that stealing from the SB is entirely different than stealing from the Button or cutoff. Position makes all the difference in this case.

With that said, given that you have already made the pre-flop raise, I would continue with a bet. If the flop missed your opp, then you may be able to pick up the pot. But I would give it up quickly if I encountered any resistance.

Jibalob

03-03-2008, 02:39 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Yes, I suppose my comments above are a bit of an arguement against stealing from the sb altogether, but I suspect that if you ran pokerstove to check your equity against a typical player's range on this flop it would be extremely close.

This isn't really much of a problem for me anyway as I wouldn't steal from the sb with K5os anyway unless my opponent is fairly weak/tight.

PLEASE READ ULTIMATE BET THREAD IN "ONLINE POKER ROOMS" FORUM
Wait, this is .05/.10 and you got sexied, I can't believe that shit, limit must really be dying.[/quote]

arborman

03-03-2008, 04:03 PM

#7 (permalink)

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The biggest problem with a SB steal attempt like this is when the BB calls your flop bet and the turn is another brick. Bet again? Check into an almost certain bet?

Blindwars can suck that way, and that's why I don't usually try a SB steal without at least ace high.

DrivingDog

03-03-2008, 05:29 PM

#8 (permalink)

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...also PS has a 2/5 blind structure in 5/10 that means you are risking more to steal from the SB than in a typical 1:2 blind structure.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Fnord

03-03-2008, 06:10 PM

#9 (permalink)

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I'll clairify. According to beating tough Hold'em Games, you must always bet the flop after raising HU because you have too much fold equity and in the cases where it's close you bet out here for balance.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

jmontis

03-03-2008, 08:24 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

yes.. i've been trying to spread the word about this book too.

Winning in tough Hold'em games by Stoxtrader and Zobags is phenomenal on SH limit play

take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately

Jibalob

03-04-2008, 07:12 PM Post subject: Re: Common steal situation in the small blind.

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

This bet most likely has negative expectation. Discuss.

Could we have an explanation now please?

Personally I think it's pretty close

PLEASE READ ULTIMATE BET THREAD IN "ONLINE POKER ROOMS" FORUM
Wait, this is .05/.10 and you got sexied, I can't believe that shit, limit must really be dying.[/quote]

NWNewell

03-06-2008, 09:00 PM

#12 (permalink)

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I make this play all day long ( and twice on Sunday... if the BB is not an agg defender much).

From a pure equity standpoint, you are about a 53/47 favorite against a random hand preflop. And you are favorable odds (2.5:1.5). So that is pretty +EV. And if he ever folds is BB (as I suspect he at least does occasionally), then that is just gravy.

If he 3-bets 20%, calls 40%, and folds 40%, you:
Lose 1.5sb 20%
Win 1sb 40%
And are 45/55 dog with 2.5:1.5 odds 40% = 0.425bb
=> EV = -1.5(.2) + 1(.4) + 0.425(.4) = +0.27sb

And on this flop you are about a 35/65 dog. But with 4:1 pot odds you don't need a lot of fold equity to make betting this bet correct (as a bluff, not unnecessarily for value).

If he guesses your hand perfectly and folds the 35% he is behind and raises (and then you fold) the 65% he is behind. You're bet makes you 0.75sb.

If he calls more often (with worse hands than yours), then you will gain equity. And if only calls with better hands, then he gives you a chance to spike a King on the turn... again, more equity.

Unfortunately, proceeding on the turn and river being out of position can be a little difficult and possibly cost you some EV. But I still think it is profitable, overall.

But I think this can get closer against a tough, agg blind defender.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

KoRnholio

03-06-2008, 10:46 PM

#13 (permalink)

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KoRnholio will become famous soon enough

I think the idea here is that while 4:1 sounds great for a flop bet, what happens when he (most likely) calls getting 5:1?

Sure our EV looks good for the current pot, but the turn and river will be very difficult to play if we don't hit a magical king on the turn.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

NWNewell

03-07-2008, 12:32 AM

#14 (permalink)

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well.... ignoring your equity:

We're laying him 5:1 odds, so he should be calling roughly 84% of the time. You were hoping to get him to fold 20% of the time looking at current pot odds.

So there is about a 4% window where he can correctly call and cost us any EV. If he calls more often that 85% of the time, he is calling way too often and is giving away EV (granted it is tough for use to realize because playing the later streets is tougher... but it's still there). And if he calls less often than 80% we gain immediately.

I'll take my chances that my opponent is not going to be properly calling 80%-84% of the time. And even if he does, as Fnord said, it provides good balance to get more action from your better hands.

The turn and river do get tougher.... I won't argue that.

The best thing to try to do is approximate hs calling range and determine your approximate equity verses his range and fire a second barrel with the proper frequency of value bets to bluffs based on the pot size. My guess would be to fire the turn as much as 35% of the lease intimidating turn cards.

Then I'd probably check/call the river maybe as much as 85% of the time.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

KoRnholio

03-07-2008, 01:07 AM

#15 (permalink)

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This goes beyond just a simple +/- EV based on the flop betting though. EV calculations are only 100% valid when computing a hand where someone is all in or gets to see a showdown for free.

Even if he calls us 100% of the time on the flop (with his nearly any 2 card range preflop) he is going to have us playing guessing games on the turn and/or river.

Firing another barrel with king high on the turn is usually a spew. It's mostly a bluff, and on a coordinated board like that, he likely isn't folding on the turn either now that he's still getting 4:1 on a turn bet.

The other option is to check the turn. But then we are either giving a free card or letting him take the pot away from us if he has nothing at all.

Bottom line, he might be making a (small) mistake calling on the flop with the lowest part of his range. But it puts us in a tough spot on the turn and river where we are likely to make bigger mistakes.

Now that I think of it, this reminds me of a hand in Sklansky's 7CS book where he cites an example where it is incorrect to bet on one street (even with an edge), because it bloats the pot. Then the larger pot makes it correct for the villain to keep chasing/playing a hand because their odds are so much better.

Perhaps a better line in this problem would be to check the flop, planning to check-raise or bet any turn card if it's checked through. At least that way we will either

a) show more strength than we really have by check raising and leading the turn, which may well make him fold his marginal hands that have many outs against us

b) when it's checked through, we bet any turn and he is only getting 3:1 instead of 4:1 on a call

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

NWNewell

03-07-2008, 01:52 AM

#16 (permalink)

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Well, to each his own I guess...

And I'm not trying to discount the difficulty of playing the later streets when you are called on the flop. I agree that it is much tougher to play. But I still think the flop bet is the right thing to do. Now if he calls and the turn is something like a J or 9.... now I think the that is a tougher spot.

But I wouldn't jump to an "any two" range. Maybe middle 60%-ish

And firing again on the turn is not necessarily spewing, if you ratio your valuebets to bluffs properly. However, I will agree that you lose a lot of fold equity on early streets due to the coordinated board.

But I still think routinely checking the flop in these spots is awful (unless you've got additional info). I think you are going to get your 20% fold more often than not. Most people are not looking at "optimal calling frequency" to make their opponent indifferent to cbet-bluffing. Most people look at pot odds versus drawing odds, did I hit the flop, etc. I think you will find that pick up the pot often enough.

And if you don't bet in spots like this, you are just screaming for the BB to steal the pot away from you with garbage. That and balancing for action on better hands is almost enough of a reason without even looking and the EV of the specific hand.

Also, to elaborate on:

Quote:

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

Perhaps a better line in this problem would be to check the flop, planning to check-raise or bet any turn card if it's checked through. At least that way we will either

a) show more strength than we really have by check raising and leading the turn, which may well make him fold his marginal hands that have many outs against us

b) when it's checked through, we bet any turn and he is only getting 3:1 instead of 4:1 on a call

I don't like this at all. He is actually getting 5:1 to call the flop (4 in the pot + our bet = 5sb vs his 1sb call). He will be getting 3:1 to call the turn, true. So he would only be correct to call 75% of the time instead of 85% of the time (looking at calling often enough to make us indifferent to bluffing him). He is almost certainly calling with a OESD or FD either way. If you look at the lowest 10% that he is now folding, King High would beat them all. So we are paying twice as much to be called with a larger ratio of better hands to worse hands. I don't really like it.

Plus we give up value by allowing him to have a free turn card. If he is on a draw (assume OESD), that free card costs us about 0.68sb, where a called bet would have earned us about 0.83sb. A total difference of about 1.5sb. And so, lets say he his ahead of us 45% of the time. Then he only needs to be calling with a draw 30% of the time to make it worthwhile (calling a total of 75%). If he calls more often we will gain from his weak draws. And this is less than our 80% call mark for immediate profit from a fold. So, alias, I think a cbet here is +EV just about any way you look at it. Playing the turn gets tricky.

And checking the flop and betting the turn when checked through looks like a "well, it doesn't look like anyone else wants the pot" type of play." I'd be surprised if it gets many more hands to fold than a flop bet would.

My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.

jmontis

03-08-2008, 01:15 PM

#17 (permalink)

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yep, going to 2nd Fnord's mention for balance here. We NEED to be caught bluffing once in a while especially in limit, the value in having an entire table catching you betting K5o to the river is tremendous

take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately

MTTGuy

05-29-2008, 09:18 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Common steal situation in the small blind.

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