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common 5-card draw odds...

  
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 08-02-2007, 09:16 PM     Post subject: common 5-card draw odds... #1 (permalink)  
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 Can someone tell me some odds for a common 5-card draw situation.

You have AAxxx, you draw 3... what are the chances of hitting trip A's or two pair?
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zenbitz
Old 08-02-2007, 09:39 PM #2 (permalink)  
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work it out you lazy bastard.

P(trips) or P(2 pair) = P(trips)+P(2pair). You might double count boats and miss quads if you are not careful. This is what you call "close enough for govenment work)

P(trips) OK, you have to hit 1 of two aces, in 3 cards. There are 52 - 5 = 47 unknown cards left for the next card, then 46 etc. (assuming you didn't misclick throw away an ace).

P(AXX) = 2/47 * 44/46 * 43/45. If you want to include quad aces:
P(AX'X') (where X can = A), = 2/47*45/46*44/45.

Now you have 3 possible combinations of hitting your A, front, middle, back. So multiply P(AXX) (either version) by 3.

2 pair is harder.... you want
P(YYX), and there are 3 combinations of that, plus 12 different YYs. Actually this is not strictly correct since you tossed cards A, B, C, you are are less likely to hit AAX, BBX, etc. Also, you have to decide if you are going to count P(YYY) as well.

Any hoo...
P(YYX) = 4/47 * 3/46 * 43/45 * 3 combos * 9 YYs
P(AAX) = 3/47 * 2/46 * 44/45 * 3 combos * 3 (for AA, BB, CC)

Got it? Break out the calculator, son.
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TLR
Old 08-09-2007, 09:24 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 http://www.poker1.com/mcu/mculib_odds.asp

Make sure you check out the 52 card table and not the 53 card table


 
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Miffed22001
Old 08-11-2007, 01:15 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 basically u get sucked out on a lot by the fish who limped UTG and then bet into you.

gg profit
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Fnord
Old 08-11-2007, 06:43 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Limit 5cd is free money.

The fish spew off money.
The nits are easy to blow off hands if you don't do it too often and showdown good hands to the fish.
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elipsesjeff
Old 08-14-2007, 09:23 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Limit 5cd is free money.

The fish spew off money.
The nits are easy to blow off hands if you don't do it too often and showdown good hands to the fish.
So true. You can spot fish pretty easily too; the ones that cold call their flush draws and OESD draws are among the most largest stations of the game.

Valuebetting in that game is so much fun too.


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