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Over 1,246,000 Posts! |
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| Chopper |
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sometimes the light bulb just goes on, ya know? here may be a silly question, please tell me if i am on track. when the situation comes up that you are likely behind in the hand, but you have prolly the most equity, you should jam the pot, right? meaning, say you have 2 overcards and a gutshot on the flop. thats 10 outs. assuming they are clean, you should lead out instead of check call. that i know, but what about when you have an aggro with position on you? should you c/r. if you know when you lead out, that you can call a raise, too, why not try to be the aggressor in the hand and c/r? thats prolly fundamental, and i cant believe the light bulb just went on after 1000's of hands of fairly profitable play. like this... PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver) Preflop: Hero is Button with A  , K . 2 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls. Flop: (6 SB) T  , 8, J (3 players)SB bets, BB calls, Hero calls. shouldnt i be raising? Turn: (4.50 BB) 5  (3 players)SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks. shouldnt i bet here, too? River: (4.50 BB) 3 (3 players)SB bets, BB folds, Hero folds. Final Pot: 5.50 BB i dont know if i am phrasing this right, but i cant help but think i am costing myself money by playing these hands so passively. [/b] |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece! 
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| Ragnar4 |
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Yes, any time you have a 1% equity edge, it is in your best interest to raise, re-raise, and cap in every situation. But you must be VERY Sure not to over-evaluate your equity in a hand. Which is why theoretically, you should only ram and jam when the equity edge is obvious. In this situation. AK unsuted, I think you've over-calculated your outs. Technically, AK as overs to this board are worth 6 outs. But we can only assume that by the river top pair is good only 1/2 of the time. Because equitably, it is. I don't know the math, I've never done the math, but David Sklansky has made this claim, so I'm going to proclaim it as true. So. You're equitable outs then with AK off, is only 3 outs worth. So instead, you have 3 overs, and 4 outs to the straight, which is completely clean on the flop. The 5 on the turn, still leaves you at 7ish outs. But it's not worth a bet. Because 7 outs is 15.4% to win, while you're representing 33% of the money going into the pot. That's a 15% spewage swing. Even IF both the ace and the king were clean, you're only 22% to win with 10 outs turn to river, and therefore still losing 11% of of the chips going into the pot. I got into an arguement a long time ago here(ftr.com), suggesting that if you evaluated on the flop, and went to the river. That you should be able to bet, and raise like a maniac that your odds should be the same, assuming your outs are clean. But since it's a 400% swing (1/2 of the number of cards to come 2x the bet size) that just doesn't hold true. But here's a situation where you ARE right. You have JT of hearts on the flop 8h, 9h, 2c comes on the flop with 4 players. Your mission is to increase the flop betting round as high as it will go without losing ANY betters (losing one is ok, losing two, may be a disaster although, heads up, you should still ram and jam). Because even with everyone else in the pot, 3 other players, you're going to win this hand right around 50% of the time. Ram and Jam and bet, and win! If you miss on the flop, Any chips that come out of your hand into the pot is spewage, but it's not by much. Raising, and calling are both decent. (Calling is better, but you don't lose a whole lot over time by raising, and if you hit, you make soooo much more money by raising here than just calling) But if you miss on the river. You've got to get away from the hand. But that's why it's ok to raise on the turn because you can get away on the river. You said you've read SSH, so spend some time in their outs evaluation section and learn to evaluate your outs as cleanly as possible. Compare that to your chart of outs and odds, and check the equity. A simple call, raise, or fold comes from each situation so quickly. |
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
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| NWNewell |
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Ignoring other aspects such as free-card raises, fold equity, etc.... you should not be raising the pot in your example. If you assume all 10 outs are clean. Then you are 21% to hit the turn (and presumably win). Now if you only call, that's a 8:1 call versus a 4.75:1 odds to win. That will give you +0.9bb EV. But if you raise, and everyone calls, you are looking at a 5:1 call versus the same 4.75:1 odd to win. Now you will have a +0.52bb EV. Notice your EV dropped. And if your raise gets one of them to fold, or one of them re-raises you, then your EV drop farther (and if your assumption about all outs being clean is wrong, obviously it is even worse). Now I know what you might be thinking, "but I've got 2 cards to come, so my win percentage is more like 40%". Well, this is true. But your decision to pump the pot or not is based on your price to see the next card and win possibilities with that next card. On the turn, you have to do that all over again as a separate decision to see draw to the river. If you had a flush draw to go along with that giving you more like 16 outs, then you are looking at about 34% chance to win, then you have equity to be raising and jamming this 3-way pot. A quick way to see if it is worth jamming the pot is if the pot is 3-way and you expet 3-way calls, you need >33% drawing odds for the next card to jam it. In a 4-way pot, you need >25% odds (3:1), in a 5-way pot you need >20%, in a heads up pot you need >50%. Meeting these guidelines will tell you that raising will increase your EV, otherwise raising will lower it. |
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My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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| Chopper |
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forgive me for speaking too soon, as i am in a hurry and want to give your posts a good bit more thought. but, my question relies on the edge, i thought. you have done more calculation into EV (with the math) than i usually do, and i appreciate it. but, if i am correct to call, arent i also correct to raise...provided no one drops out. if the betting goes ME-check...bet...bet...ME-raise?...call...call. the reason i say this is if it is correct for me to call here, and i raise, dont i get double the odds here? in this crude example, say there were 6sb in the pot already...i get 2 bettors...i raise...and 2 call. isnt that the same as 12:1, essentially on MY c/r? if i know they wont drop out? its just ME putting in the extra bet. sure things fall off on the turn, but if the odds are there for me to still call, shouldnt i raise again? doesnt it effectively increase my odds more? of course, i may have put out a bad example, but like the JTs with both the overs, str8, and flush draws...it would certainly be right there because of the same principal, right? i'll get back to you all in a bit... and, fyi, i figured my overs were good in the example, but i know they arent always, especially in such a call station game...as i found out last night. it was a toughy...my TPTK kept running up against TPNK where the kickers paired all too frequently by the river. yet, when i held the subpar kicker, like a J, theirs held up. it was frustrating to say the least, but thats variance...and my low skill level at picking up the paired kicker when he started betting like the fool.  at these stakes i feel TPTK is good most times because of the SH nature of the game, and the donkeys calling off with kickers under T all the time. hell, i feel you should control the pot most times with 2ndPGK simply because of how often i see bottom pair coming along, too. no fold 'em hold 'em at its finest...truly a high variance game.thanks. sorry that got a bit wordy. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| NWNewell |
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Quote:
Obviously your drawing odds remain the same no matter what you do. But if you only call, you are looking at 8:1 odds (6sb in the pot, plus 1sb by the SB and 1sb by the BB vs your 1 bet to call). If you raise, regardless of c/r or raising in position, you are looking at 5:1 odds. (6sb in the pot, plus 2sb by the SB and 2sb by the BB vs your 2sb from your raise). Your drawing odds are the same 4.75:1. If you raise, your pot odds are 5:1... good. But if you only call, they are 8:1... even better. Yes, you will win more when you win by raising. But you will lose even more by raising because you will not win often enough to make up for the additional money you have to contribute by the raise. For your raise to increase your EV, you need to have beater than a 33% chance to make a winning hand on the next street. Here are some Example calcs: With 10 outs = 21% chance to win: Riase: (21% win)(10sb) - (79%lose)(2sb) = .51sb EV Call: (21%win)(8sb) - (79%lose)(1sb) = 0.89sb EV Calling has better EV!! With 16 outs = 34% chance to win: Riase: (34% win)(10sb) - (66%lose)(2sb) = 2.08sb EV Call: (34%win)(8sb) - (66%lose)(1sb) = 2.06sb EV Raising has better EV!! To have proper equity to raise, you need to have a greater chance (%) to win than what you have to contribute (%) for that particular street. Hence, >33% chance in a 3-way pot where you are contributing 33% of the total money on that particular street. >25% in a 4-way pot. > 50% in a heads up pot. Again, this does not take into account any other variables like fold equity, free-card raises, etc. Also, I don't think I would count all 10 outs even at these stakes. People will play any ace, but usually don't protect their blinds all that aggressively. So, the blinds could have easily called with AT or AK. Not to mention JT, KT, KJ are pretty prime hands a preflop raise called with from the blinds, in my opinion. I agree that if you hit your Ace or King, you will probably be good. But I think that you won't be good often enough to at least discount them a little. I'd probably only give them credit for 4-4.5 more outs with the two callers from the blinds. But that's just me. |
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My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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| Chopper |
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i appreciate the feedback a lot. and the calcs. i dont sound like it, due to my misuse of terminology, but i can count outs, pot odds...the basics. where i am still learning is calculating equity in a given situation. my reads arent bad at all, in NL, and that helps a bit in limit, but at my stakes, these guys seem to be calling with everything. even in low NL stakes, i can still put them on a range. but in limit, it seems the farther you go in a hand, the wider the calling range can become due to the limited betting size. but i digress. i still dont think i am communicating my question very well; although, i am certain i am wrong by now. i dont mean to imply that raising is doubling my odds to draw (although, that is what i said). i do think it changes my pot odds though, for the better, not worse. not my equity in the hand, just my pot odds. i am counting the raise as one additional bet, not 2. thats wrong, technically, but i think it may be right, in theory...if you use my logic. when you bet and get raised you are only putting in one more bet to call the raise (meaning if you were getting 5:1 on the first w/ 2 callers, then, you would be getting 8:1, if it went around again?). but, if you KNOW the others will call (ep w/ an aggro to your right), why not check raise? i know its 2 bets out of your pocket, but i figure you will call the first, if it gets raised, you will call the additional bet (w/ better pot odds)...so why not become the aggressor? obviously, i am thinking too much here. i am trying to avoid appearing ungrateful and stubborn. i think my time may be better spent getting better at calculating the equity edges instead of "inventing" my own logic. more specific scenarios would help a lot. can you post some hands with specifics in them? |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| Chopper |
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ps there was a comment earlier that suggested you thought that i was assuming two cards to come, and calculating my odds based on that. nope. i rarely use those odds. i almost always figure my odds on the next card, and recalculate again if there's another street. i used to make that rookie mistake, and it has cost me a lot with flush draws...lol. especially, in NL when i thought i had the odds on the flop, and the psb's came on two streets, thus, destroying my odds. i was too stoopid to pick up on that one for awhile...lol. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| Fnord |
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| I might look him up on the river. | ||
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