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Check my math on this hand please?

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flopmonkey

12-03-2008, 03:32 PM Post subject: Check my math on this hand please?

#1 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Nov 2008

Posts: 85

PokerStars Limit Hold'em, $0.04 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J

, A

UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 (poster) raises, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls

Flop: (13 SB) 9

, 6

, 4

(6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (6.5 BB) 2

(6 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls

River: (12.5 BB) J

(6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Total pot: $0.50 (12.5 BB) | Rake: $0.02

I wanted to make sure i was calculating odds correctly. At the turn before my bet of .04, the pot is .41, so the pot odds is 10.25 to 1.

For my implied odds of making a flush on the river is generally 4 to 1. So I should definately have called there. Since nothing else but straights could be made by opponents, then I dont have to discount any outs, am I right?

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Chopper

12-03-2008, 04:40 PM

#2 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

first off, i 3bet AJs there. i am isolating a 4-penny moron and i have position. therefore, i can control a pot by c/calling if i feel he has me dominated. and, i can raise anything that may have AQ/AK trapped in a pot. down there, these guys often think any A is worth a raise, and i may very well already be dominating him. this is a "thinnish value" spot most times.

since all these guys took a flop with you, i am not betting the flop. so, i like the checking.

you are fine to call/raise a bet on the turn getting 10.5:1 w/ nut flush draw and probably only slightly tainted overcards. (athough, remember drawing to the A can have high reverse implied odds with it since a weak AX hand that has paired may slaughter you when that A hits and you think you caught good.)

and, i FIRE that river and call a raise. this is a "marginal" spot that you need to get good at getting value from. down at this level, it shouldnt even be "marginal."

when calculating odds, in limit, i use BB ratios. there are 6.5 bb's in the pot, before any turn betting. sb, bb, utg, mp all put in 1. that takes it to 10.5:1. you likely have 9 flush outs, and 3ish overcard outs. thats 12 X 2 (one card coming)...giving you a 25% chance at connecting.

now, since there are 6 players in the pot tell me if it is better, with 25% equity in this pot, to call or raise? most importantly, tell me why?

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

flopmonkey

12-03-2008, 06:29 PM

#3 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Nov 2008

Posts: 85

I should have reraised on turn, since everyone checked the flop, shaking out all the opponents except possibly the sb(the only one who bet). That way I only have to beat 1 hand, instead of 5 on the river.

Thats the best I can come up with, am I thinking right?

Also I dont know how to calculate pot odds using BB ratios. I just divide the pot total by the bet that I face. Can you explain how you did that?

Also when you say 25% chance, is that the same as 4 to 1 implied odds?

Chopper

12-03-2008, 07:34 PM

#4 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

Quote:

Originally Posted by flopmonkey

Also I dont know how to calculate pot odds using BB ratios. I just divide the pot total by the bet that I face. Can you explain how you did that?

its kind of the same thing you are already doing. you take your bet size and divide into the total pot as a ratio. a $1 call into a $9 pot is 9:1. pretty simple. if it works for you keep doing it. but, it will transfer like hell if you ever play in a live casino, so i have tried to teach myself to think in terms of BBs. thinking in terms of BBs also takes the "money" out of the equations...for me. it allows me to play higher levels w/o getting as scared...but one step at a time.

a BB is a turn bet. a SB is a preflop/flop bet. so, preflop you watch the betting. count each bet that goes in. if a guy raises, its two. for example, you and i are HU. the blinds provide 1.5 sb preflop. i raise from CO and you call on BTN. that is two SBs from me and two from you, plus the 1.5 in there from the blinds....the pot will be 2+2+1.5=5.5 sb's.

if i lead out on the flop, you will be getting 5.5+my 1=6.5:1 on your call. if you raise me on the flop, that will be 5.5+1(me)+2(your call and raise)=8.5:1 back to me. getting it? i'm sure i am not making this as simple as it can be made.

when the turn hits, our bets double in size. that means we cut the number of sb's in the pot in half. so, if i called YOUR flop raise, the turn would be 5.5+1+2+1(my call)=9.5 bets, divided by two = 4.75 BIG BETS.

so, if i lead the turn, you will get 5.75:1 on that bet.

part of the trick of limit is to use the turn to CRUSH your opponents decision making. once the odds, sort of, get cut in half, you can use that against him to deny him "proper odds" to chase a draw. therefore, in a lot of cases you need to bet the turn if you bet the flop whether you like your hand or not....solely because he will fold due to pot odds. (this takes for granted he understands odds, which your 02/04c players will NOT). however, a mistake is a mistake is a mistake. by forcing them to call unprofitably.....YOU PROFIT. and, that is how you make your money in LHE...or poker for that matter. you keep putting them in unprofitable situations. and, in limit, you can usually use the turn betting structure to do just that. you just need to think/plan ahead a bit. and, that takes a little experience.

Quote:

Originally Posted by flopmonkey

Also when you say 25% chance, is that the same as 4 to 1 implied odds?

no. i am not the best at implied odds, when it comes to limit. but, implied odds are "what you expect to gain after your draw comes in." it can make a seemingly unprofitable call profitable. and, it bears studying. but, this post is long enough already. we'll have to get to it later.

you have roughly 12 outs, by my count, to win this hand. did you see that? with one card to come, 12 outs have roughly a 24% chance to hit. so, i rounded to 25%. do you know the "2/4 Rule?" it states that with two cards to come, you quadruple your outs, and you will have a rough percentage of one of those outs hitting in the next two cards. if there is only one card to come, you double your outs, and get roughly the percentage that one of your outs will hit on the next card. its a pretty close calculator of your equity share in a pot...since all equity is, most times, is your percentage chance to win the hand.

but, here's the big concept i was asking about...

when there are 6 players in a pot, all things being equal, you have a 1 in 6 chance of winning. (i know, duuuuh) but, its important as hell in limit. why? because if your POT ODDS/EQUITY SHARE is greater than those chances, someone in there is dead money! therefore, you will make money on every last nickel you stick in the pot. so, you raise your 25% chance with 6 players in FOR VALUE! its a chance for you to put more money in when you have more than your fair share of a chance to win the whole thing.

the only thing that keeps you from doing it every time, regardless of situation, is "relative position." another very important limit concept for another time.

here is something to work on, too. in your example, you agree we should raise the turn. now, you know it was for value, not to gain folds (you were MP2). why is that?

and, is it the same situation as if you were the in the big blind on the turn?

(hint: look at the odds you offer THE TABLE in both examples here, and that should help you.)

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

flopmonkey

12-04-2008, 10:09 PM

#5 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Nov 2008

Posts: 85

I haven't studied anything about value betting yet...Still waiting for my other book, Its strange that this book I have already doesnt mention it.

I think it means since you have such a valuable hand, it is worth betting on.??

Chopper

12-05-2008, 02:36 AM

#6 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

in a nutshell, yes. but, it goes much deeper than that.

think of it this way...

you have TT and the board is K J 5 3 8. no flushes up there. villain hasn't shown any aggression except calling your cbet on the flop after calling your preflop raise. do you bet or check behind?

if you bet, it is either a bluff OR a bet for value. there really is no "see where i am" here because you are either ahead or behind. if you feel you can get villain to fold a J here, its a bluff. if you think villain will call with Ahi or an 8, its a bet for value. plain and simple.

however, its up to you to decide which it is most times.

overpairs are pretty easy value bets most times. so, are nut flushes. but, sometimes your set, when the straight card hits, becomes a bluff and you didnt think so at the time.

THIN value is a term you will hear. and, it describes the TT hand to a "T." (no pun intended) if you KNOW you are up against a calling station, you will KNOW you are likely betting for value. you KNOW he will call with a K or J, but you also KNOW he will call with an 8, mid pocket pairs, Ahi and other junk. so, you KNOW your bet will show profit over the long run. that makes it a value bet. but, it's pretty "thin" because you had be pretty sure, as it is a pretty marginal situation w/o any reads.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

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