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Local_Echo
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01-05-2007, 02:59 PM
Post subject: Card dead and variance
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Illinois
Posts: 92
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I'm a regular player at the $1/$2 tables at UB. I've had some pretty good success at these stakes but I've stumbled on a problem I keep encountering again and again.
I consider myself a pretty tight/aggressive player, but I can mix it up at times when I feel the situation calls for it. I'll have a pretty decent session where I'm getting decent cards, but I'm also playing them well and using my image to make more profit. Then there are the sessions where my cards are very cold and I can't seem to win a pot with the speculative hands I do play. Not even the tight image seems to help in this case. These sessions bring me back down to about break-even.
This is a pretty general question, I know, but I'm just wondering if anybody else here has had this problem and if there is a way around it. Or, is this just one of the many ways variance can manifest?
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"Poker is a godless game, full of random pain." - Andy Bloch
"I can't watch TV longer than 5 minutes without praying for nuclear holocaust." - Bill Hicks
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Not really much you could do. The biggest fallacy here would be to open up your game because you most likely aren't used to playing different types of hands in different positions thus leading you to make mistakes. Limit is all about the swings. Just roll with the punches, you'll be fine.
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Local_Echo
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Illinois
Posts: 92
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Agreed. I just realized that I also stayed at the table too long and I probably should have cut my losses earlier. As for hand variety, I have dabbled in it occasionally to moderate success (suited connectors, etc.) but I wasn't even getting these to play with. Mostly trash like J2, Q5, ad nauseum. Thanks for the reply! I'll just stay the course, then....
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"Poker is a godless game, full of random pain." - Andy Bloch
"I can't watch TV longer than 5 minutes without praying for nuclear holocaust." - Bill Hicks
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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the difference between a great player and a good player is the ability to lose the least when they are card dead.
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I just sometimes sit at one table for three, four hours before getting any playable hands. When you get spider webs on your chips it might actually be time to make a move against people who are watching. Against people who are not watching, just keep waiting.
The funny thing is, on Poker Champs, where I used to play on the lowest stakes there were pretty observational opponents that folded if you didn't play say 20 hands in a row. I mean, like 5 people would fold to you when you bet out. That's because the people who played the lowest stakes most likely played the freerolls first and won some money there. The donks probably bought in and played higher stakes.
So basically, you have to really know what you're doing before you pull anything. I'm fine with just a few hours of losing just the blinds. I've lost way more way faster.
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Local_Echo
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Illinois
Posts: 92
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Yeah, I think I need to work on the discipline a bit. Thanks for the tips! I appreciate the help!
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"Poker is a godless game, full of random pain." - Andy Bloch
"I can't watch TV longer than 5 minutes without praying for nuclear holocaust." - Bill Hicks
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Remember, echo, we're only expected to average around 1 big bet per 100 hands. If you go on a hot run where everything is hitting there will be (eventually) a downswing which should leave you just slightly above even. Its the net we care about.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Remember, echo, we're only expected to average around 1 big bet per 100 hands. If you go on a hot run where everything is hitting there will be (eventually) a downswing which should leave you just slightly above even. Its the net we care about.
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What? I thought it was 1 BB an hour (B&M goes at about 60 hands an hour or so?)
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Obviously if youre playing bad players you expect your winrate to go up. B&M Players, by and large, are bad players.
Note that 1bb/hour is equal to about 1.6bb/100.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Uh, at the casino you MIGHT get dealt 30 hands in a hour. 1bb/hr at a cardroom would be more than 3bb/100. Still easily attainable in the right game.
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Since we are talking about variance here, I just figured I'd post an interesting fact that I have noticed while looking over my last 400,000 hands. Over that stretch of hands, I have played 59,725 hands on Mondays and made $3,832 or about 639 BB(I play 3/6). On Thursdays, I have played 61,072 hands and lost $1,921 or about 320 BB. So, over about a 60,000 hand sample given roughly exactly the same playstyle for me, and opponent conditions, your winrate can vary that incredibly much. That is a difference between 1.07 BB/100 and -0.49 BB/100 over a 60,000 hand sample just from pure simple variance and little to nothing else(I highly doubt the games are much different at all on Thursdays than on Mondays). Kinda has to make you put very little stock in winrates you might have at this game at any given time and make you realize that you have to expect that if you play enough eventually you will lose for a very extended period of time through absolutely no fault of your own play. You've just gotta be able to deal with it and not let it bother you.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nehmer
Since we are talking about variance here, I just figured I'd post an interesting fact that I have noticed while looking over my last 400,000 hands. Over that stretch of hands, I have played 59,725 hands on Mondays and made $3,832 or about 639 BB(I play 3/6). On Thursdays, I have played 61,072 hands and lost $1,921 or about 320 BB. So, over about a 60,000 hand sample given roughly exactly the same playstyle for me, and opponent conditions, your winrate can vary that incredibly much. That is a difference between 1.07 BB/100 and -0.49 BB/100 over a 60,000 hand sample just from pure simple variance and little to nothing else(I highly doubt the games are much different at all on Thursdays than on Mondays). Kinda has to make you put very little stock in winrates you might have at this game at any given time and make you realize that you have to expect that if you play enough eventually you will lose for a very extended period of time through absolutely no fault of your own play. You've just gotta be able to deal with it and not let it bother you.
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Or just stop playing on Thursdays :P
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Uh, at the casino you MIGHT get dealt 30 hands in a hour. 1bb/hr at a cardroom would be more than 3bb/100. Still easily attainable in the right game.
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Yeah i used his 60/hr rate. 30/hr is more likely.
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