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capping the turn

  
 
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DrivingDog
Old 10-15-2007, 01:26 AM     Post subject: capping the turn #1 (permalink)  
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Villian is 35/25/2 fairly aggressive but also pretty solid postflop. I guess the question here is whether he would overplay 77, 88, TT+ here as often as he'd have two diamonds.

At the moment i didn't stop long to think about it since i had 10 outs even if behind, but does anyone think capping the turn is wrong? Would anyone lead the turn - afterwards i thought going for the c/r was a serious error since it might have been checked behind.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9, 9.
1 fold, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 2, 7, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 9 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB calls, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, BB folds, Hero caps...
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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arborman
Old 10-15-2007, 02:52 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I'd probably checkraise the turn, given that button's been the aggressor all along. Unless he's a total idiot (which your stats suggest he isn't), I'm putting him on TT+ with the preflop 3-bet. His pf 3bet suggests TT+ or AKs - the flop could be a c-bet or a value bet.

He doesn't have TJ, unless he's a total idiot.

Even if he does have you have 10 outs for the nuts, so your play is pretty strong (in my limited experience). Anything else and he's drawing dead.
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snowboard_31
Old 10-15-2007, 03:44 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I like the turn checkraise because it also sandwhich's the BB. It gives him a chance to call the aggressors bet before you raise, and if the button just calls hes likely to call along too. I think capping the turn is correct.

Villian doesnt have 10j (as arbor said), unlikely with the preflop 3 bet its unlikely a set of 8's or 7's(although physically possible since he is on the button). AK diamonds is possible, or even just the A of diamonds. TT+ is the most likely.
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Fnord
Old 10-15-2007, 08:19 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I bet this turn a lot because a weak button will check one pair hands behind . Although I think you're going to get a bet here more often online.

After he 3-bets I don't care much for the cap.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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DrivingDog
Old 10-15-2007, 12:23 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Well here's the math on the turn cap:

basically need more than 50% equity vs. villian's 3betting range to cap, assuming one more bet goes in on the river regardless.

Here's villian's hands in (estimated) order of likeliness, and my equity vs. each:

1) AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, KdQd, (4 hands), 22%
2) AdAx (3 hands), 80%
3) KdKx (3 hands), 80%
4) Non-diamond AA (3 more hands), 96%
5) Non-diamond KK (3 more hands), 96%
6) 88, 77 (6 hands), 98%

Think it's safe to include hands like AdJd, KdQd since villian is aggro preflop and will 3bet a lot of hands. QdJd or JTs would be pushing it though i think...

Cumulative equity as each hand group is added to his 3betting range:
1) 22%; 2) 47%; 3) 57%; 4) 66%, etc...

The critical question then is if he'll 3bet KdKx or worse...

btw, river was rather anti-climactic (but very nice) case 9. will reveal villian's hand later today or tomorrow.
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Fnord
Old 10-15-2007, 05:14 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Yeah, you're right. It's online, cap it.

Also, I think there is a non-trivial chance he has JT.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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DrivingDog
Old 10-15-2007, 08:42 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Yeah, you're right. It's online, cap it.

Also, I think there is a non-trivial chance he has JT.
Well yeah come to think of it 25% pfr guy could well 3bet QJs from the button, and might 3bet JTs if he's feeling frisky. JTo though? Against decent open-raiser UTG? i'm a bit sceptical about that one.

So how about we compromise and add QdJd, a couple JTs hands and one JTo hand. Put all those hands in group 1, here's the cumulative equity:

1) 21%; 2) 37; 3) 47; 4) 55, etc.

So need to include non-diamond AA as well. Starting to get a bit marginal vs. solid opponent i agree.
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littleogre
Old 10-15-2007, 09:46 PM #8 (permalink)  

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 I'll have to think about it some more as i just don't feel like it right now butr at first glance i think C-calling the turn and river is the way to go. I'm probably wrong though and will post my reasoning and then someone can be so kind as to explain why i'm wrong.
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euphoricism
Old 10-16-2007, 05:39 AM #9 (permalink)  
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wtf? This is like an auto c/r/cap.
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DrivingDog
Old 10-16-2007, 05:38 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Villian called my river bet and showed two black Aces.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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littleogre
Old 10-17-2007, 05:39 AM #11 (permalink)  

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littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past
 never mind i just reread the hh and noticed hero had a set 9's>. In that spot i agree that you wanna jam the pot. Even if they do have a flush you have many outs.
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Fnord
Old 10-17-2007, 07:30 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Villian called my river bet and showed two black Aces.
Live players don't regularly give that much action on the turn with Aces.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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DrivingDog
Old 10-17-2007, 08:05 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Live players don't regularly give that much action on the turn with Aces.
Neither would i on that board. People just love their Aces too much sometimes it seems.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 10-17-2007, 08:34 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
People just love their Aces too much sometimes it seems.
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