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spoonitnow
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06-05-2006, 12:02 AM
Post subject: Can you ever fold this river?
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A , J .
UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.
Flop: (10.50 SB) A , 4, 5 (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds.
Turn: (6.25 BB) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.
River: (8.25 BB) T (2 players)
BB bets, Hero ...
Here villian is 81/7 over about 250 hands, and is about -50 BB/100 for the hands that I have for him. Is there anything about this that makes a fold here even remotely reasonable? I don't think there is because there's too many hands that I beat that a bad player could lead out with on the river for the pot odds given. What if I was in this situation getting only 5-to-1 on my money, is a fold reasonable then?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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You can almost never fold this river against anyone. Against an 81/7, you can't fold this river no matter how many bets in the pot, ever. Unless you have a rock solid read he gets tight when a flush card hits and would never bet without the flush. Even then, no read is good enough with 10 bets in the pot. An 81/7 is more likely to have just caught 2pair with his T5 or just feel like bluffing than to have you beat. Raise it up!
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outphase
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 949
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If the guy was closer to 30/7 and obviously bets the rivered flush, fold.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Okay I see your points. Thanks 
Btw I called and he had no pair no spade, that was fun.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by outphase
If the guy was closer to 30/7 and obviously bets the rivered flush, fold.
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No way. No farking way.
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Quote:
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Originally Posted by outphase
If the guy was closer to 30/7 and obviously bets the rivered flush, fold.
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No way. No farking way. |
Yeah, 30/7 could have AT or worse here and your getting over 9:1.
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thenonsequitur
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06-05-2006, 04:12 AM
Post subject: Re: Can you ever fold this river?
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#7 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Location: Location
Posts: 637
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I've seen opponents bet when a 3rd flush hits on the river when holding as weak as bottom pair. They are going to call anyway if they check, and they see the 3rd flush card as protection aganst getting raised, so they figure they might as well bet and gain a bit of fold equity (even if they don't think about it in those terms). It's usually a bad play, but at least it has some logic behind it.
In this particular case it looks like the guy was a complete donk, and wasn't looking to add some fold equity to his already existing potential to win, but instead he was just looking for fold equity (he's not calling if he checks and you bet). He thought that with an ace on board he could make the PFR raiser and flop/turn bettor fold to one bet just because a third flush card fell...which is another reason why folding here would be a terrible idea. That would turn his -EV mistake (i.e. deciding to bluff here with nothing) into a +EV play.
Against an 81/7 here, I'd probably not think he was betting to gain fold equity at low risk of being raised. But instead, because of the especially wide range of hands he might have, I'd put his most likely hands as two pair like TJ or 45 or A5 or such (i.e. he's making a value bet), so I'd raise him.
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outphase
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 949
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Xanadu
Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Quote:
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Originally Posted by outphase
If the guy was closer to 30/7 and obviously bets the rivered flush, fold.
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No way. No farking way. |
Yeah, 30/7 could have AT or worse here and your getting over 9:1. |
Whoops, meant call due to odds vs the earlier raise suggestion :P
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
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