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Can we find a fold here?

  
 
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Knytestorme
Old 11-30-2007, 07:02 AM     Post subject: Can we find a fold here? #1 (permalink)  
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PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9.
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8, 7, J (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 9 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB calls, BB folds.

River: (9 BB) 4 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero ???

Not sure if raising the turn would have been the right play either.

UTG I have only 3 hands on (and played one) so can say 0 reads....SB is 42/5/0.22 with a 0 AF on the river and 72% VP$IP from the sb over only 36 hands....BB is 78/15/0.76 with infinite river AF over 32 hands.
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Jibalob
Old 11-30-2007, 09:36 AM #2 (permalink)  
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This really really REALLY sucks.

Should make for an interesting thread, no matter how I look at this hand I cannot decide on the best way to play it.

Raising the flop would make the rest of the hand much easier to play but I'm not sure if I like it.

FWIW I call the river most of the time and just hope for the best.
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DrivingDog
Old 11-30-2007, 12:38 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I agree with raising the flop as this makes the hand easier to play.

Anyone think about raising the turn? Has the possible benefit of folding out the SB if he has some lone weak club or gutshot, and can maybe get a free showdown if UTG has the straight as he might fear the flush. Gives us the option of betting the river if we hit out FH. Getting 3bet would suck but we can safely fold the river UI in that case.

As played, once you get to the river you pretty much have to call. There is no reason for UTG to think anyone has him beat so he would probably bet any decent hand here.
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littleogre
Old 11-30-2007, 12:59 PM #4 (permalink)  

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littleogre has a little shameless behaviour in the past
 i think calling the flop is imo. The 9's are unlikely to be in front so we are drawing to a gs. Why raise and chace pushing others out or being reraised. The turn is one ugly card as it completes a flush also 10/9 jsu got there although that hand is highly unlikely. q/10 is also a possiblity. anyway i would raise the turn. we are still infront some of the time and even if you are behind you will usually win the the river pairs the board.
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DrivingDog
Old 11-30-2007, 01:11 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre
i think calling the flop is imo. The 9's are unlikely to be in front .
My sense is that the 9s are reasonably likely to be in front. Three opponents, three Js left in the deck, no other preflop raises = middle pair has a good chance of being ahead at this point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by littleogre
Why raise and chace pushing others out or being reraised.
MP, gutshot draw is a strong hand, it could well be best and has 6 outs to improve to a set or better if it's not. So you need to raise to protect it from overcards, gutshots, backdoor flushes, etc. You definitely want to raise and make a lone Ace clubs fold, or a lone T, etc. And if they don't fold they are making a mistake by calling without proper odds. And when they make mistakes you make money.
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Knytestorme
Old 11-30-2007, 02:41 PM #6 (permalink)  
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I thought about raising both the flop and the turn and possibly both were good spots to do so but my feeling on the flop was that while UTG was donking into me it's a board texture that very likely hit his hand with 2p, AJ or a flush draw so I decided to call and re-evalute on the turn.

The benefit to raising the flop would be to have the blinds facing having to call 2 bets and if they do or raise I can almost toss my hand. The con is that at this level so far I've not seen anyone really fold that much so I'm likely inflating the pot when I'm likely behind.

On the turn it was a good card to an extent but it completes straights and flushes so I'm again most likely behind here and the same reasons for and against raising apply so my decision was to check and hope for a board pair.

At the river the whole hand has been ugly to me but I'm not sure if I can find a fold for one bet but with the final board I'm also not sure how I can't be behind here.

for reference (and will add it to the OP too), UTG I have only 3 hands on (and played one) so can say 0 reads....SB is 42/5/0.22 with a 0 AF on the river and 72% VP$IP from the sb over only 36 hands....BB is 78/15/0.76 with infinite river AF over 32 hands.
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xtreem5
Old 12-11-2007, 01:03 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I think with 5 callers definitely raise the flop - see who's serious. As it played out...call on the river...the pot's too big.
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euphoricism
Old 12-11-2007, 07:14 PM #8 (permalink)  
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You pussies.
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