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can a semi-decent player really get stats like this?

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not2smart

11-04-2005, 01:17 AM Post subject: can a semi-decent player really get stats like this?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2005

Location: I belong to the night... and to the hidden corners of every room in the house

Posts: 32

Hey guys. I just finished a 1553 hand session at the $.50/$1.00 tables. Overall, i am down by 2.25 BB/100. I am having trouble understanding it. My VP$IP = 19.32. My preflop game has been mostly dictated by the charts in SSHE and ITHE. I haven't been making any huge mistakes in this area. Very tight up front. Not limping premium hands. Playing speculative hands only late position with multiple limpers. Not cold-calling raises. You all know the drill....

Just a few starting hands to consider:

AA (6) = +.08 (BB/hand)
KK (4) = - 1.63
QQ (7) = - 1.21

AKs (5) = - .98
AQs (6) = - .23
AJs (4) = - 1.69
ATs (2) = -2.50

AK (11) = - 1.32
AQ (9) = - .37
AJ (16) = - .76

KQs (4) = + .71
KQ (11) = - .29

These are just a few hands. I know that this gives you no information on HOW I played them. It is true that I am not an expert and not at the level of some of you (jeff, fnord, etc...). But would you believe that I am actually not that bad? Would you believe that on almost all of those beats I got drawn out on by players playing complete crap who were calling with insufficient odds? Is that possible? Or am I just playing premium starting hands SO PATHETICALLY BAD that a bunch of fifty cent players can easily KILL me whenever I get AA-QQ or AK-AT or KQ??

Lastly.. and I know that this doesn't have to be the case with me.. but.. is it possible for a solid player (like fnord or jeff) to have a 1500 hand sample with similar results? Can 1500 hands just "run" like this? and its no big deal at all since its such a miniscule amount of hands?

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Demiparadigm

11-04-2005, 01:52 AM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005

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Posts: 1,602

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=22193

-10BB/100 over 2K hands.

Unless you are implying that I am not a good player.
In which case, nevermind.

Check this one out instead.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ic.php?t=22058

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

pokerfanatic

11-04-2005, 02:06 AM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004

Location: 6max limit tables

Posts: 1,968

i think mine was the worse -350bb over 15k hands however this SS shows it @ -250bb it got worse after that...

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...c.php?p=172906

“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord

Fnord

11-04-2005, 02:10 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

I think his biggest mistake is thinking that "perfect" pre-flop hand selection via a chart has much to do with running bad. I also like the part about never cold calling in this game.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

euphoricism

11-04-2005, 02:14 AM

#5 (permalink)

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1500 hands is a small sample size. Give it more time.

Cold calling isn't a bad thing when done at the right times.

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not2smart

11-04-2005, 03:29 AM

#6 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2005

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I guess Demi's post confirms that such a run as mine (and much to the worse) can happen to better players. Thanks Demi and pokerfanatic for sharing your stats.

Fnord, who are you talking to in your reply? Can I assume that you are addressing me, since I was the one who's post you were replying to? If so... who are you talking about? My post doesn't say anything about "thinking that 'perfect' pre-flop hand selection via a chart has much to do with running bad." I merely mentioned my pre-flop decisions so that you could know that my -2.25BB/100 results were not because of playing Q9 for 2 bets cold in mid position or whatever else but I never correlated the two. I also don't think you'll find the word "perfect" in my post? I think you will find that it says, "I haven't been making any huge mistakes in this area..." instead of "perfect". I also didn't say "Never cold calling in this game". I think, if you read the post, you will find that it actually says, "Not cold-calling raises." And, please notice that that particular statement is one of several INCOMPLETE sentences that I strung together as descriptive of GENERAL preflop rules. For example... "Not limping premium hands." This is an INCOMPLETE sentence that is meant to be descriptive of a general preflop rule... raise with your premium starting hands. That does NOT imply, however that it is never correct to limp with a premium starting hand. Likewise, "Not cold-calling raises" can be reasonably interpreted similarly, I think WITHOUT... having to sarcastically "like the part about" it. Just a thought.

euphoricism.. thanks for the encouragement. I will give it more time. And I will continue to study from SSHE and ITHE and the posts in here that you guys give. I read and think about everything that y'all write.

Ninjas aren't just great warriors.. they are great people too!

Fnord

11-04-2005, 03:37 AM

#7 (permalink)

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*shrug* IT happens and you're looking in the wrong places for answers. I used to play 2k hands a day. I certainly didn't win every day.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

not2smart

11-04-2005, 03:39 AM

#8 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2005

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AWWW GEEEE Thanks.

Ninjas aren't just great warriors.. they are great people too!

Fnord

11-04-2005, 03:40 AM

#9 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by not2smart

AWWW GEEEE Thanks.

There's just not enough there for much more than a smart ass reply. All I can say is that I've been there and you're not looking in the right places for the answers you seek.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

not2smart

11-04-2005, 03:42 AM

#10 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2005

Location: I belong to the night... and to the hidden corners of every room in the house

Posts: 32

when are you going to respond to the pm i gave you about the cost of you coaching services?

Ninjas aren't just great warriors.. they are great people too!

Fnord

11-04-2005, 03:43 AM

#11 (permalink)

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Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck

Posts: 19,333

Quote:

Originally Posted by not2smart

when are you going to respond to the pm i gave you about the cost of you coaching services?

I'm planning on taking on new students this weekend. I'll send out a bunch of mails then.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

not2smart

11-04-2005, 03:48 AM

#12 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2005

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Posts: 32

OK. Ill look for it then. Thank you. Good night.

Ninjas aren't just great warriors.. they are great people too!

elipsesjeff

11-04-2005, 04:45 AM

#13 (permalink)

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elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point

What is such a big deal? Give me a break guys. Fnord is right, 1500 hands is absolutely nothing. Look at your premium hands for one. AA will win more than .08 bb/hand on average, and KK and QQ will be a longterm positive winner (I have won more with KK than AA).

2.8*15 = 42 BB downswing, that is nothing. You need a lot more hands and you'll start to win more, if you are playing correctly that is.

IMO, I dont disagree with you using the tight hand chart at .5/1. I wouldn't make any deviations from that until you hit 2/4.

Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

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pokerfanatic

11-04-2005, 02:49 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

mine was well over 1500 hands mine was more likw 15k hands... buti had leaks in there along with a bad run... But Fnord and Jeff both have good points they play 1500 hands in a day!!! So 1500 is trully a short run number of hands...

Ltrain

11-04-2005, 04:54 PM

#15 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2005

Location: Miami, Florida

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Welcome to variance. The downswings get easier once you have been through enough of them and learn to expect them. You will learn to take them in stride and look at them as an indicator you need to re-evaluate your game. For each downswing, I re-read some of my books, review hands on PT to see if I played bad or was unlucky, and your game will improve as a result.

"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.

siknd

11-04-2005, 04:59 PM

#16 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005

Posts: 359

this is the effect of the artificial intelligence the online poker community insists upon depending on, ie poker tracker etc. we try to replicate a perfect strategy by fiddling with the settings of virtual mathematics based programs and analyze starting hand charts instead of playing poker.

'If you think a weakness can be turned into a strength, I hate to tell you this, but that's another weakness. '

pokerlearner

11-04-2005, 05:39 PM

#17 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: california

Posts: 366

I totally agree with Fnord and Jeff. But still here are some thoughts for Not2smart.

1) 1500 is not a "small" sample..its NOTHING. i mean as for whether you are playing correct or playing incorrect, a sample of 1500 hand wont tell you anything. you could win 10 bb/100 over a sample of 1500 hands playing terrible and still win

2) for any meaningful analysis start with at least 10000. I wasnt that patient and would post intervals of 5000 hands

.

3) Winning players have had negative runs of 20000 - 30000 hands. So you can see why such small sample dont tell you anything about your play.

4) Fnord will tell you like it is, most of the good advice you will recieve in this forum will be clear cut, to the point and not to just make you feel better about yourself, but rather good solid advice. Thats what you need to improve as a winning player. You wont get condescending posts from people like 2+2 here (thats what makes FTR so special), but you are not going to be hearing stuff just to make you feel better...(other than simple encouragement).

I cant even describe so much solid wonderful advice I have gotten from players like Fnord, Jeff, Hyper etc (dont wanna go on a long post thanking everyone here..

).

4) as for downswing, losing over 1500 hands is NOT a downswing. its just a blip. Just try to make correct decisions every single hand, and dont try to unnecessarily adjust your game based on results. THATS THE WORST THING YOU WILL EVER DO. I was on a losing streak of 23 days, couldnt make a winning session if i paid the dealer..LOL...(moved down from 3-6 live > 2-4 live > 1-2 party > 0.5-1 party....) never thought i would win ever and then before you know it, the downswings gone

. you are winning again.

4) read newbie circle of death before you start out playing more serious poker in "beginners circle".

long rambling post..sorry..it reminded me of my first days posting at FTR so just was trying to be helpful.

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