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Can I save a bet here?

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07-28-2008, 04:46 AM Post subject: Can I save a bet here?

#1 (permalink)

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PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A

, K

.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, 5 folds, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 7

, K

, J

(3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.20 BB) 5

(3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

River: (8.20 BB) T

(3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 raises, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 13.20 BB

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Ragnar4

07-28-2008, 04:57 AM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: Billings, Montana

Posts: 1,284

yes. Bet/Fold on the river.

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

Chopper

07-28-2008, 03:11 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

NO NO NO. getting at least 11:1, folding here to a "possible" flush is a catastrophe. pay it off, and make a note that he bets his flush.

you have to be correct less than 10% of the time to make this profitable.

quote from Miller/Sklansky/Malmuth, pg. 153, section "Protecting Your Hand, from SSHE: "The most COSTLY error you can make is to fold a hand that has a strong chance to win a LARGE pot...(this mistake is so costly because it costs you MORE than what you invest when you are wrong)...In a large pot, most people instinctively see their decent hands and draws to the end. Only players who believe that making 'big laydowns' is the hallmark of expert play routinely make this mistake. THEY ARE DOOMED TO WONDER WHY THEY KEEP LOSING WHEN THEY PLAY SO EXPERTLY." (by far my favorite LHE quote and perhaps the hardest conceptual change i had to make when i switched from NL to LHE)

if you call, you cost yourself ONE BET...big deal...in this large a pot. however, if you fold, and are wrong, you cost yourself about 11-12 BBs. THATS A CATASTROPHE comparatively. you just cant be that sure you are beat....without great notes.

but, personally, i c/c this river because i want my villain to open his bluffing range since i am not folding. this is not a board i am valuebetting...without great notes.

catching the theme? please take notes and provide reads...your game will get better faster.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

DrivingDog

07-28-2008, 03:52 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

I think I can find a puke-fold here.

The flush got there. KT got there. JT got there. 98 got there. TT got there. AQ got there. Q9 got there. And he's raising the field. This is a bluff about 1/100 times.

Sklanksy's advice makes sense if you're ahead often enough to make calling down profitable. The problem is people interpret it to mean never fold TP no matter what the board is or who is putting in the action.

That being said, a c/c makes this river so much easier to play. Now if it's bet and raised behind you it's an easy fold.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

Chopper

07-28-2008, 04:54 PM

#5 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

agreed. which is why i mentioned that i felt it was much more profitable to c/c river here. b/f is way too thin, imo.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

Jibalob

07-28-2008, 05:02 PM

#6 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2007

Location: Out of my roll

Posts: 512

You need to start posting stats/reads in order to get good responses but......

I never ever in a million years fold here with no read, players at these stakes do some really funky stuff.

PLEASE READ ULTIMATE BET THREAD IN "ONLINE POKER ROOMS" FORUM
Wait, this is .05/.10 and you got sexied, I can't believe that shit, limit must really be dying.[/quote]

KoRnholio

07-28-2008, 05:17 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 2,165

KoRnholio will become famous soon enough

River is an easy check. Call if it's one bet and you don't have to overcall. Fold otherwise.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

okiman

07-28-2008, 08:30 PM

#8 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 171

I'm also a small stakes limit player (mostly 0.50/1) and the very change Chopper recommends here I've made in the past few months and it has significantly increased my profit. The plays people make at these stakes are mind-boggling (staying to the river and raising/betting KQ, 88, or even Axo here) and make a c/c on the river profitable.

socal1111

07-30-2008, 11:14 PM

#9 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jun 2008

Posts: 191

Quote:

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

River is an easy check. Call if it's one bet and you don't have to overcall. Fold otherwise.

This is only an "easy C/C" with reads. Sometimes this is easy B/F, B/C, C/C... totally depends on the information you haven't provided.

Chopper's totally correct, though... folding w/out close to 100% positive in such a big pot is a huge mistake/leak. Even if I'm 90% sure he has flush, I'm making this call.

Gotta be able to make those thin value bets on river. These bets really separate the great from the good. I like checking much more if it'll induce.

"We don't stop playing because we get old. We get old because we stop playing!" -Doyle

KoRnholio

07-30-2008, 11:50 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2005

Posts: 2,165

Quote:

Originally Posted by socal1111

Quote:

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

River is an easy check. Call if it's one bet and you don't have to overcall. Fold otherwise.

This is only an "easy C/C" with reads. Sometimes this is easy B/F, B/C, C/C... .

I disagree. You'd need a calling station read on both villains here to make a bet because then a raise means we are beat. By betting we're only really getting called by non-stations (when ahead) when they hold KQ, K9, AJ. We're now losing to the ton of two pair hands (JT, KT are very possible), flushes, straights (AQ, 98, Q9).

Checking might even induce a bet from the top pair hands we beat, or pure bluffs. Plus, like you said, we don't want to be folding good hands in large pots.

Heads up I could see betting, but three way when so many draws got there top pair top kicker is such a thin bet that the risk of a) getting raised off our hand by a bluff OR b) paying two bets with our showdownable hand when behind, just isn't worth it IMO.

Quote:

totally depends on the information you haven't provided.

It's hard for me to provide information regarding players on a hand that I didn't play in / post.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

07-31-2008, 12:42 AM

#11 (permalink)

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Posts: n/a

90% KQo pays me off here
80% Kx pays me off here

but is it worth getting raised here and having to pay it off?

Ragnar4

07-31-2008, 04:02 AM

#12 (permalink)

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Location: Billings, Montana

Posts: 1,284

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

agreed. which is why i mentioned that i felt it was much more profitable to c/c river here. b/f is way too thin, imo.

Lol, he didn't ask if it was good. He just asked if he could save a bet.
Which is why I said B/F.

This is one of those situations that thin or not, c/c is just about as thin IMO. Because there is absolutely 0 chance your opponent will lay down if you can't bet. A whole slew of draws came in on the river... Why not see if you can't get your opponent to crap his pants here.

Although Bet/call isn't bad either because the pot is so huge. I think I'd rather spew a little than fold, but that wasn't the question. The question was " can I save a bet here" which is yes.. B/F or C/C. Which are about equal in my view... Like C/C>B/F>B/C.

The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?

Chopper

07-31-2008, 02:40 PM

#13 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Dec 2005

Location: St. Louis, MO

Posts: 4,255

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chopper

agreed. which is why i mentioned that i felt it was much more profitable to c/c river here. b/f is way too thin, imo.

Lol, he didn't ask if it was good. He just asked if he could save a bet.
Which is why I said B/F.

understood. in that case i would say, also, "yes, you CAN save a bet here. but, its not the optimum play for a pot this big." or, i could just say....."it depends." lol.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

This is one of those situations that thin or not, c/c is just about as thin IMO. Because there is absolutely 0 chance your opponent will lay down if you can't bet. A whole slew of draws came in on the river... Why not see if you can't get your opponent to crap his pants here.

because he wont. the pot is too big and the flush is most definitely a possibility. AND you dont want worse to fold; a better hand most certainly isnt folding. on a board like this, you dont blow a bluff off his hand, you induce him to fire. since the pot is too big to fold, you may as well keep it one bet and induce him to think maybe HE can blow you off the pot by bluffing.

you ARE losing this pot 85%+ of the time. maybe more. no one is disputing that. but, because of the odds the pot is laying WHEN YOU KEEP IT ONE BET, you just cant fold. therefore, you need him to put the extra money in with all sorts of shit, too. this concept was by far the most ass-backwards concept of LHE for me to learn, as a NL player. but, it does make sense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Although Bet/call isn't bad either because the pot is so huge. I think I'd rather spew a little than fold, but that wasn't the question. The question was " can I save a bet here" which is yes.. B/F or C/C. Which are about equal in my view... Like C/C>B/F>B/C.

bet/call IS bad because 2nd pair doesnt raise you. nothing worse does. air doesnt even raise you if you lead. and, to make this hand the most profitable it can be, you need to gather villain's entire betting range. not just the huge portion that beats you, but also the portion (if its there) that reflexively lashes out at signs of weakness like river checks. "not folding" and "not putting extra money in...voluntarily" are two completely different things.

LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.

Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!

DrivingDog

07-31-2008, 04:43 PM

#14 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2007

Location: UK

Posts: 923

You can't just automatically value bet every time you have TPTK on the river in a multiway pot. You have to look at the board and think about what your opponents might have. You have to think about what will pay off and what will raise.

In this situation, there aren't enough hands that pay you off to balance those times when you are drawn out on and lose two bets. How many Kx and AJ hands can be out there? A lot fewer than all the hands that just made two pair or better.

Bet/folding is also bad because you may get bluffed off the pot. If you must bet though, there's no way you can call a raise unless you have a read that the raiser is very tricky or very dumb.

C/c is best. You encourage worse Kings to bet, some J hands and missed draws or hopeless hands to bluff. Also, if there's a bet and raise behind you it becomes a pretty easy fold.

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).

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