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drmcboy
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03-15-2006, 03:44 AM
Post subject: Can I check a few things
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#1 (permalink)
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,601
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caught the limit bug re-reading ToP, thought I would give it a shot. Played a little 2/4, then to 3/6. After reading stickies here I moved to 6 max. Mostly playing on UB trying to clear a bonus I've had forever. Some PS.
My observations:
90% of the players suck.
100 % of the players who buy in for less than 100 suck.
most tables it seems like I'm just raising big hands, calling every once in a while from button/blinds with good multiway hands, and waiting to get paid.
Whenever I lose money, it's because I forget these things, play too many hands, or expect people to fold to semi bluffs.
Am I missing anything?
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Um, no, really I think thats sixmax in a nutshell. Wish I could fucking listen and internalize it, though.
As you said, gotta stop semi-bluffing, gotta start value-betting.
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mcatdog
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 3,654
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The only thing I'd add is that table selection is huge. In Fnord's sticky, he talks about how a relatively small number of players lose most of the money. Look at a bunch of tables until you find an open seat to the left of a really horrible player, then you're golden.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
The only thing I'd add is that table selection is huge. In Fnord's sticky, he talks about how a relatively small number of players lose most of the money. Look at a bunch of tables until you find an open seat to the left of a really horrible player, then you're golden.
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i think it's more important to avoid having a horrible player to your left.
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thenonsequitur
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Location: Location
Posts: 637
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
i think it's more important to avoid having a horrible player to your left.
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It's not a generic "horrible" player to my left that bothers me so much as a particular kind of bad player--very, very, loose players to my left who enjoy cold calling are a nuisance. I like to be able to iso-raise the loose passive player sitting to my right.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,601
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yeah it seems like most people just suck, and position is good but not crucial, depends if they would rather try a CR with nothing or call a CR with nothing. But there are the really LAGG bad players, postion seems key there other wise I end up in 3 bet pots with AQ, which is fine HU but kinda sucks when the blinds come too.
I don't have much selection at UB, but at PS I have been trying to ID and search for some fish. In process moving money over to party, I assume there are a ton of tables there.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
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also another thing is bothering me - people who sit down UTG, CO, really anywhere, and they post a dead blind? WTF? I just can't believe how often I see this. Where do they get the money? Is there some hidden value I'm missing? Your blind is coming in 5 hands or less, SIT OUT. I just mark these guys as instant fish, but I see it so often...
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thenonsequitur
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
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Posts: 637
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I always post a newbie blind from any position (except maybe UTG).
I am a consistent winner and I play TAG style but you can mark me as a fish if you want.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by drmcboy
Is there some hidden value I'm missing?
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Yes, I like to set up a good table image as soon as I sit down. Sitting out 3 or 4 hands waiting for a blind makes people mark me as "instant tight". I'd much prefer to be marked as "here to gamble" (or in your case "instant fish").
And the hands where I post newbie blinds account for such a small percentage of total hands played that the monetary value I am losing on the actual dead newbie blinds is insignificant. Especially since some of the time I post a newbie blind it's a hand I'd play anyway. And sometimes even if it's not a hand I'd play anyway I end up winning the pot.
This is the same reason why I'll buy in for $96.42 instead of $100. Observant players look at that and think I must have brought all my money to the table. And before I've even played a hand I already have a table image.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thenonsequitur
I always post a newbie blind from any position (except maybe UTG).
And the hands where I post newbie blinds account for such a small percentage of total hands played that the monetary value I am losing on the actual dead newbie blinds is insignificant. Especially since some of the time I post a newbie blind it's a hand I'd play anyway. And sometimes even if it's not a hand I'd play anyway I end up winning the pot.
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You underestimate the percentage of how much money we pay come from our blinds. Sitting out 3-4 hands does not label anyone an instant 'tight' image and the value you lose from that 1/2 BB is huge. Frankly, instead of paying an average of .75 BB per 6 hands you are paying an extra (.5/x)*y where x is the number of hands before the BB (out of 4) you post your noob blind and y is the number of tables on average you change per hand.
Y can be found using the numer of sessions divided by the number of hours and also by the average number of hands per hour and you'll find out how many different tables you play at per hand. My y number is .0366.
So, if I posted on the CO everytime i joined the table it would cost an additional (.5/3)*.0366 or .0061 BB/hand or .61 BB/100 from your winrate. I believe my math is right but by posting an additional noob blind is nasty.
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thenonsequitur
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Full House
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Ok, I'm convinced. Thank you for the math; that's all it took to convince me. I should know by now not to trust my intuition. =)
I still do believe that there is something in the metagame to gain from posting a newbie blind, so I don't think my winrate suffers as much as that formula would suggest. But that's still a huge amount, and it must be costing me money.
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thenonsequitur
This is the same reason why I'll buy in for $96.42 instead of $100. Observant players look at that and think I must have brought all my money to the table. And before I've even played a hand I already have a table image.
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I do like this part.
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ihategnomes
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,225
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Yea, but the people who pay your paycheck at the end of the week probably dont even realize the difference.
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Field mice are fast, but owls can see in the dark.
<Bbickes> i still wanna know if the thing in your avatar is a real chick or not
<Bbickes> or am i e-crushing a dude
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Demiparadigm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
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Originally Posted by thenonsequitur
I always post a newbie blind from any position (except maybe UTG).
And the hands where I post newbie blinds account for such a small percentage of total hands played that the monetary value I am losing on the actual dead newbie blinds is insignificant. Especially since some of the time I post a newbie blind it's a hand I'd play anyway. And sometimes even if it's not a hand I'd play anyway I end up winning the pot.
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You underestimate the percentage of how much money we pay come from our blinds. Sitting out 3-4 hands does not label anyone an instant 'tight' image and the value you lose from that 1/2 BB is huge. Frankly, instead of paying an average of .75 BB per 6 hands you are paying an extra (.5/x)*y where x is the number of hands before the BB (out of 4) you post your noob blind and y is the number of tables on average you change per hand.
Y can be found using the numer of sessions divided by the number of hours and also by the average number of hands per hour and you'll find out how many different tables you play at per hand. My y number is .0366.
So, if I posted on the CO everytime i joined the table it would cost an additional (.5/3)*.0366 or .0061 BB/hand or .61 BB/100 from your winrate. I believe my math is right but by posting an additional noob blind is nasty. |
This math is wrong because you don't lose all of that money. look at you BB stats. You are not losing .5BB every blind. It is probably closer to 0.2.
Now look at your CO stats. How many hands are you playing in the CO? It is probably close to 30% in a 6 max game. so 30% of the time, you get a hand that you would have played anyway. The other 70% of the time, you are not losing the whole 0.5BB, but only a fraction of that.
I agree that to post in the CO in a 6 max game is -EV (I can prove mathematically that it is +EV 10 handed) but it is not as -EV as your math suggests.
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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thenonsequitur
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
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WARNING: This is a long speculative post that is probably logically flawed and/or irrational, so if you read it be fully aware that you might end it feeling like you wasted time you could have spent in an another thread.
Demi, I think I intuitively understood what you just put into math terms (since I even mentioned the fact that the newbie blind isn't always just dead money when making my I original argument), and I failed to notice that elipsesjeff's formula didn't account for the times that one has a good hand or wins after posting a newbie blind.
So, I have a potential change of a opinion once again. I agree that posting a newbie blind from any position in 6-max is -EV under the assumption that posting vs. not posting a newbie blind has little or no effect on table image. But I still disagree with that assumption. It really seems like people give me less action when I sit and wait for the BB as opposed to posting a newbie blind.
Note that at the stakes I play at, 2/4 and 3/6, the disadvantage of posting a newbie blind is probably less that at higher stakes. People at 2/4 and 3/6 play generally pretty loose passive, so compared to higher stakes, on hands where I post a newbie blind the hand is more likely to be unraised, and more people are likely to limp along. So I will have better odds on poor newbie-blind hands than at higher stakes.
Considering this above argument alone, this still doesn't make posting a newbie blind +EV at these stakes, it just makes it less -EV, but I consider more than this argument. The way I see it if my initial looser table image results in even a little more action just once per newbie blind, and I win one more small bet than I would have, I've already broken even. If it helps me win one big bet or more, then it's +EV. I don't think there is a good way to experimentally determine the strength of the effect that posting a newbie blind has on table image, or the strength that table image has in general. These just have to be a judgement calls.
Later on when I have some more free time, I am going to do some math to determine how much I'd be losing by posting a newbie blind from each position (I will use my poker tracker position stats and a modification of elipsesjeff's formula to do this), and compare this to the judgement I make about the table image effect.
Of course, clearly this judgement call is based on experience, of which I have a lot less than many posters here. elipsesjeff has played a lot more than me, and he claims that "sitting out 3 to 4 hands does not label anyone an instant 'tight' image". I tend to disagree. Even at 2/4 and 3/6 I think table image has an effect strong enough to make it worth cultivating, and that posting a newbie blind aids in this process. But I value his judgement call and will take that into account when making my own.
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chardrian
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I rarely,if ever, get pms
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 4,524
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jeff, you should split this newbie blind debate into a separate thread.
I think intuitively posting the newbie blind is just a waste of money.
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