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Nexter
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09-12-2007, 12:37 PM
Post subject: Calling a 3-bet with open straight draw
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 26
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Well I'm still trying to get my head around when to call and not with draws. Was calling this 3-bet a mistake?
Party Poker 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7c, 6c.
4 folds, MP2 raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls.
Flop: (8 SB) 9d, 8d, Kh (4 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, MP2 folds, CO raises, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, CO caps, SB calls, Hero calls.
My thinking was I was getting 6-1 to call which I thought was pretty good odds on an open-ended straight draw. Thought I didn't consider being re-raised again.
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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I think this is a must call on the flop here.
The flop cap doesn't change the odds you're getting from the pot too much, only from 14:2 (7:1) for a 3bet to 17:3 (5.7:1) for a cap. Add in one more BB from each player on the turn and your odds become 21:5 (4.2:1). Even having to call two BB on the turn is not that bad, 25:7 (3.6:1). You're about 3:1 to hit any T or 5 by the river and 4:1 to hit a non-diamond T or 5. With implied odds you're ahead of the game just about every time even if you miss the turn. I might fold to a diamond and heavy action on the turn but otherwise i'm usually seeing this one through.
Against thinking opponents I might even go ahead and cap the flop myself. Like i said it doesn't appreciatively change your pot odds but it does add deceptive value to your hand. I.e., because a cap on the flop usually represents a big made hand your opponents won't be frightened of a T or 5 on the turn or river and you will likely get calls from decent hands and raises from big hands like sets and two pair. It also tends to discourage people with good but not great hands from raising and re-raising the turn which is good for you if you miss your draw on the turn and want to get a cheap(er) look at the river.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Nexter
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 26
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Yeah I thought I had the odds, but I'm always a bit unsure in these aggressive larger pots. I know if I hit my draw I'll get a good pay off, but the amount I could lose is greater. Considering most of the time I make a draw the pots are smaller, I feel that the loses incurred in these larger pots when I miss can out weigh the return I get over the long term.
Your second point is interesting. I never would of considered capping the betting. I'll keep that up my sleeve if the conditions are right on another occasion.
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BennyLaRue
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09-12-2007, 04:57 PM
Post subject: Re: Calling a 3-bet with open straight draw
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#4 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Nexter
My thinking was I was getting 6-1 to call which I thought was pretty good odds on an open-ended straight draw. Thought I didn't consider being re-raised again.
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The first call was fine but the cold call is no good.
You've got 8 outs with an OESD (about 32%) but not all of them are clean with the stupid end of the straight and a flush draw out there. Reasonably, you can estimate 4 outs (16% to win). Implied odds don't improve your hand much, essentially cancelled out by the possibility it's going to cost you at least one big bet on the turn if you don't get there since one player has position on you.
Let it go. There are better spots.
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Nexter
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 26
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Good points. Discounting outs is something that I forget to consider. I never consider future betting either. Need to work on that.
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DrivingDog
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09-12-2007, 05:13 PM
Post subject: Re: Calling a 3-bet with open straight draw
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#6 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
The first call was fine but the cold call is no good.
You've got 8 outs with an OESD (about 32%) but not all of them are clean with the stupid end of the straight and a flush draw out there. Reasonably, you can estimate 4 outs (16% to win).
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I think we can discount the possibility of anyone betting and raising with QJ here,which is the only hand that makes a bigger straight when a T comes. The FD is a possibility but i've said before that people tend to overestimate the likelihood of a FD, and i stick by that. In any case, the action is more indicative of strong made hands. So i'm thinking about 7 outs on average is a conservative estimate. Even 6 is enough to call 2 BB on the turn to see the river. There may be better spots but personally i still like my chances when the pot odds are reasonable and the implied odds are large.
You're going to lose this hand more often than not, there's no doubt about it. But when you hit you are going to more than make up for it.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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BennyLaRue
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09-12-2007, 06:22 PM
Post subject: Re: Calling a 3-bet with open straight draw
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#7 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
I think we can discount the possibility of anyone betting and raising with QJ here,which is the only hand that makes a bigger straight when a T comes.
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I think we can discount the possibility of QJ here too. That doesn't make sense considering the flop play. Possibly if it's suited diamonds, but I doubt it. No, the point is that even if the hero makes his straight with the T, it possibly gives his opponents a number of outs. Ignoring hands containing two diamonds (which are a very distinct possibility given this is .05/.10 - suited cards do get raised an reraised by LAGs and OESFDs would get raised and reraised even by conservative players), KJ could easily call a raise pre-flop, then raised and reraised in a pot abandoned by the pre-flop raiser. KJs is in the range of hands to cold-call with pre-flop, so that may be what the CO has.
Lastly, it's limit so the implied odds are never that big and certainly if you're going to consider them, you need to consider the reverse implied odds as well with flush and bigger straight draws out there. The hero has 3 outs to the nuts here (any 5 but the diamond) but could be outdrawn on quite easily afterwards.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Don't fold
Don't raise
Ni Han
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DrivingDog
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09-12-2007, 07:32 PM
Post subject: Re: Calling a 3-bet with open straight draw
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#9 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
The hero has 3 outs to the nuts here (any 5 but the diamond) but could be outdrawn on quite easily afterwards.
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Every time there's two suited cards on the flop people seem to think it automatically means that someone has a FD. But not only is a FD unlikely given card frequencies (about 1/14 chance per opponent a priori), the action on the flop just doesn't speak to it. You've got 3 outs to the absolute nuts, 3 more to the second nut straight, and 2 more to what is very likely to be the best hand. A straight or flush redraw (assuming one even exists) has 4-9 outs. That's just not enough to scare me out of this pot. I'm not saying it's an easy decision on the flop, but i definitely think it's worth the call.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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KoRnholio
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,165
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13:2 on the cold call is good enough, even if it does get capped and/or some of our outs are dirty. With this much action on the flop, if we hit we are bound to get some bets in.
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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BennyLaRue
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09-12-2007, 07:52 PM
Post subject: Re: Calling a 3-bet with open straight draw
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#11 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 646
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Quote:
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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
The hero has 3 outs to the nuts here (any 5 but the diamond) but could be outdrawn on quite easily afterwards.
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Every time there's two suited cards on the flop people seem to think it automatically means that someone has a FD. But not only is a FD unlikely given card frequencies (about 1/14 chance per opponent a priori), the action on the flop just doesn't speak to it. You've got 3 outs to the absolute nuts, 3 more to the second nut straight, and 2 more to what is very likely to be the best hand. A straight or flush redraw (assuming one even exists) has 4-9 outs. That's just not enough to scare me out of this pot. I'm not saying it's an easy decision on the flop, but i definitely think it's worth the call. |
You're missing the point of the quoted portion. Even if the hero hits his draw on the turn, he could be easily be outdrawn on the river by hands in range so far. Therefore, implied odds don't get you anything...this is the point. You can't count on anything other than a reasonable estimation of what outs are good, not enhanced by implied odds.
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DrivingDog
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09-12-2007, 08:27 PM
Post subject: Re: Calling a 3-bet with open straight draw
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#12 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DrivingDog
A straight or flush redraw (assuming one even exists) has 4-9 outs. That's just not enough to scare me out of this pot.
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The above was my answer to your point. As far as implied odds go i think your implied odds are HUGE if a non-diamond 5 hits and still very good if a non-diamond T hits.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Mr.Risky
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1
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Hi,
This is my first post but I thought I would weigh in because this is a part of my game that I struggle with from time to time. In this situation I would give myself 5 outs. I would subtract 2 outs for drawing to the low end of the straight and 1/2 an out for the two suited flop with two players seeing the turn. (if I had 3 opponents seeing the turn with me I would discount 1 full out for FD). I agree that based on the action so far QJ is an unlikely, but not an impossible holding. Under normal circumstances I would subtract 1 full out if one of my outs did not give me the nut straight in this case the [T] however as agreed QJ is not likely but still worth a small discount, 1/2 an out there.
In addition I'm not too thrilled about having only two other players seeing the turn with me. In a situation like this you need lot's of company, a minimum of 3 players would be close but 4+ would be better.
With MP2 folding the CO raising and the SB RR I think I would cut my losses to 2 small bets.
How did the hand turn out?
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KY_Ace
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 259
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if the K was a Q or J easy fold but with 6 cards that let me check raise the turn pretty confidently I'm seeing the turn. I'd consider folding on the turn if I'm not closing the betting especially if a J or Q rolls off, but I'm seeing the turn damn it!!!!
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