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littleogre
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12-20-2007, 11:25 AM
Post subject: call or fold pf
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Pre-Flop: 7 7 dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, MP1 folds, MP2 3-bets, CO calls, 2 folds
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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hopefully it is better now.
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sinky
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: SCOTLAND
Posts: 295
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Well, you need to hit a set (~8/1)
If UTG+2 calls you are getting 10.5/2 so you would need to make another 7SB post flop to make it profitable after rake.
If UTG+2 caps you are getting 13.5/3 so you would need to make another 11 SB post flop to make it profitable after rake.
Split the difference and call it 9SB.
I call
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sinky
Well, you need to hit a set (~8/1)
If UTG+2 calls you are getting 10.5/2 so you would need to make another 7SB post flop to make it profitable after rake.
If UTG+2 caps you are getting 13.5/3 so you would need to make another 11 SB post flop to make it profitable after rake.
Split the difference and call it 9SB.
I call
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I called with thinking similar to yours. I was not geting odds to hit a set but felt in such a large pot i would get a lot of act if i hit my hand.
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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On the call side you have the advantage that you can probably checkraise and get some significant action if you do hit. On the fold side your odds of hitting are pretty slim - you will miss far more often, and there is a good chance you will be calling a cap as well. That said if it is a raggy flop you may get to see a cheap or free turn, and there is a slight chance of your pair holding up against unimproved overs (though it is unlikely).
I tend to fold these OOP, though that may be a leak. If you whiff the flop it is a definite check fold.
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Hermann the Lombard
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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* grunch *
Run away.
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Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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Wait, what?
you have to make 8ish to one to get your money back. We agree on that
you have to call 2 small bets, or 1 big bet in order to get it. Assuming there won't be a cap, if your opponent hunkers down and goes into call mode, you'll never get to 8 BB by the river.
In order to call 2 bets cold you need 4 other players in the pot with you. That's straight out of small stakes hold em.
I think this is a pretty clear fold unless you know these guys are either A) Calling stations and will BOTH pay off once you become aggressive. or B) Ultra aggressive nuketards, who will bet, bet, raise, and re-raise with middlepair.
Good luck with that.
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here? 
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DrivingDog
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
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Just fold. You'll almost never win UI against three opponents. On a good day you'll hit a set and make a nice profit, but usually you won't and have to fold the flop, and once in a while you'll hit a set and lose a lot of money to a bigger set, flush, or straight.
I need TT or better to play in this spot.
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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
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Hermann the Lombard
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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To elaborate on my earlier post:
Fold as if you've been shot...in the absence of reads (and likely even then). What are your reads on the two raisers? We need to know that, even if the read is only "just sat down and haven't a clue, but the table has been running 40% seeing the flop."
Unless both of them are crazy you're either behind or very likely to be behind momentarily. Calling re-raises requires a primo hand, meaning something like JJ+, AK or AJs+. Generally TT isn't good enough, much less 77.
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Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Hermann the Lombard
To elaborate on my earlier post:
Fold as if you've been shot...in the absence of reads (and likely even then). What are your reads on the two raisers? We need to know that, even if the read is only "just sat down and haven't a clue, but the table has been running 40% seeing the flop."
Unless both of them are crazy you're either behind or very likely to be behind momentarily. Calling re-raises requires a primo hand, meaning something like JJ+, AK or AJs+. Generally TT isn't good enough, much less 77.
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If we call we certaintly are not calling because we think 7s are goot. We are calling to try and flop a set. The only question is when we include implide odds which are huge in a hand like this are we geting the correct odds to chase that set
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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so you post the hand then validate your own reasoning for playing it after people tell you not to? hmm....
I fold this, youre praying they both stay in the hand, and are likely behind from the moment you put chips in the pot. This is not how you beat limit hold'em
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take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
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overflow
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12-24-2007, 08:05 PM
Post subject: Re: call or fold pf
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#12 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 356
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
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You're getting 5:1 direct odds, and I doubt UTG+2 is capping, you'll be getting the right odds if he does though. I would say call, as from the blinds you're in a great position to c/r the flop and the turn if you hit your set. Also if you whiff you can c/c 1 bet on the flop, or c/f to 2 bets cold. I like this situation, so I say call. I like having mid PPs in early position after the flop in a multiway pot, but maybe that's just my style. Your hand plays itself on the flop essentially no matter what happens. As I said, you either c/c a single bet, c/f to multiple bets, or c/r if you hit your set.
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arborman
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12-30-2007, 12:05 AM
Post subject: Re: call or fold pf
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#13 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by overflow
Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
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You're getting 5:1 direct odds, and I doubt UTG+2 is capping, you'll be getting the right odds if he does though. I would say call, as from the blinds you're in a great position to c/r the flop and the turn if you hit your set. Also if you whiff you can c/c 1 bet on the flop, or c/f to 2 bets cold. I like this situation, so I say call. I like having mid PPs in early position after the flop in a multiway pot, but maybe that's just my style. Your hand plays itself on the flop essentially no matter what happens. As I said, you either c/c a single bet, c/f to multiple bets, or c/r if you hit your set. |
Barring something like an OESD combined with a FD of some kind, or the unlikely event of my 77 being overpairs, I don't see any rationale for calling even one small bet on a missed flop.
Assuming you miss the flop (i.e. no set) and don't have any draws, you are playing with 2 outs. 2 out means you have pot odds of about 23.5:1 to hit on the turn, which means you require a pot that is 23.5SB or larger to justify calling for 1SB. Even if the pot is capped preflop with 3 players you are looking at 12.5 SB, and if you check-call you are getting at best 14.5:1, which is not nearly enough. If you are calling the flop without draws with a middle pp it is a significant leak. The implied odds if you hit on the turn soften that a little, but a reasonable estimate of 4-6BB on the turn and river if you hit still don't really make it worthwhile, especially since you might still lose to a straight or flush.
Mathematically speaking, you would need there to be 4 players in a capped pot preflop (20.5SB), and at least 3 of them would have had to call a bet on the flop for a call to be worthwhile. AND, you would want to be the last to act, because it would suck to call and then have to call another bet (or more) afterwards.
Even in the second best case - where you have some kind of straight draw and a backdoor flush draw - you need to be very careful about calling. Assuming an OESD (i.e. flop 568) you have 10 outs, which certainly justifies a call and maybe a raise in some circumstances, though some of those outs would be tainted (i.e. you might make your draw and lose anyway). Throw in a BDFD and you would have about 10.5ish outs, though a flush with a 7 is pretty vulnerable.
There have to be some very compelling reasons for me to call a missed middle pp on the flop, especially in early position. Maybe the aggressor is a total donk who will bet air (and we are heads up), maybe I have a draw that makes a peel worthwhile. But if neither of those are the case I am folding quick (and folding preflop almost always on this hand).
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Shep
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: SoCal
Posts: 20
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I disagree with folding here. Its LIMIT poker, and too many players raise with and Ace in that game. I'm a tight player and made a living playing limit poker for 4 years on the Gulf Coast. From experience, make the call, you have a made hand. You could flop a set and in most cases, a set is a winner. I definately dont play the hand the same way in NL, but limit, especially LOW limit, is better known as 'no foldem holdem'!
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jmontis
so you post the hand then validate your own reasoning for playing it after people tell you not to? hmm....
I fold this, youre praying they both stay in the hand, and are likely behind from the moment you put chips in the pot. This is not how you beat limit hold'em
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No i'm just giving my thoughts behind the call
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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Ok it looks like eveyone that wants one has had there say. i call hit a set on the flop. The flop had 2 big overs. Me and 1 villan capped the flop While everyone else gave up. I went into check call mode on the turn as by the time the turn hit the board had 3 big overs and i thought there was a good chance i was up against a bigger set. sure enough he floped a set of aces 
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Hermann the Lombard
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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I hate when that happens.
I guess the math above didn't really take into consideration the times when you flop your set and lose, but I suppose the percentage chance of that is pretty low...but maybe not THAT low if at least one of them has a big pair.
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Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
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arborman
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 300
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Set over set happens about 1 in 20 times. Assuming you flop sets evenly across the range of cards, that means your set will be beaten 1 in 40 times - though obviously you are much more likely to play pocket pairs in the top end, which means your set is probably even stronger than that.
While I've been killed by a bigger set, there are more occasions when the showdown came and I wished I had played my set faster - like when I slow play it on the flop and it loses to a runner draw on the river..
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Hermann the Lombard
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by arborman
While I've been killed by a bigger set, there are more occasions when the showdown came and I wished I had played my set faster - like when I slow play it on the flop and it loses to a runner draw on the river..
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Me too, including a set of Kings recently. Now sometimes a set that strong can be played slowly...on an unconnected rainbow board.
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Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
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