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DrivingDog
Old 09-19-2007, 09:12 PM     Post subject: blind steal #1 (permalink)  
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Opponent is fairly solid player, but somewhat overdefends his blinds with a FBBS of 35%.

86s is the bottom of my stealing range from the button, but not sure if it's a good play against someone who overdefends. Probably should tighten up on that.

On the flop he would c/r with middle or top pair or a draw, which is why I 3bet. Bet the A on turn to give him another reason to fold. Wasn't really sure what to do on the river. I bet in the hope that he'd fold a better hand basically.

Comments?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 6.
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4, 6, K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (7.25 BB) T (2 players)
BB checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets, BB...
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 09-19-2007, 09:39 PM #2 (permalink)  
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i'd rather see a showdown after your flop 3bet. you're really hoping he's got a flush draw....in which case he's not folding to bets, and he's calling you down with any pair. if he's got the ace, he's not folding either.

check behind and call a river bet.
 
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DrivingDog
Old 09-19-2007, 10:09 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Well mainly i was hoping to fold a better six or maybe even a T. I'm certainly folding to a raise on the turn or river.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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BennyLaRue
Old 09-19-2007, 11:02 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Well mainly i was hoping to fold a better six or maybe even a T. I'm certainly folding to a raise on the turn or river.
If he had a T and called down to get it, I doubt he's folding.

What the Hyper-Hypo said.
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DrivingDog
Old 09-20-2007, 12:07 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

If he had a T and called down to get it, I doubt he's folding.
Should have made myself clearer - I'm talking about a T that went with a FD.
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Jibalob
Old 09-20-2007, 09:05 AM #6 (permalink)  
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I'm checking behind on this river to an over-defensive BB, the only thing he's folding here is an un-paired missed flush draw.
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Wait, this is .05/.10 and you got sexied, I can't believe that shit, limit must really be dying.[/quote]
 
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DrivingDog
Old 09-20-2007, 09:51 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jibalob
...the only thing he's folding here is an un-paired missed flush draw.
Really? He's an overdefender, but that's a preflop stat. I don't see him calling the river with 6x or Thxh on this board - I wouldn't.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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Jibalob
Old 09-20-2007, 10:27 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jibalob
...the only thing he's folding here is an un-paired missed flush draw.
Really? He's an overdefender, but that's a preflop stat. I don't see him calling the river with 6x or Thxh on this board - I wouldn't.
Yeah sorry, I suppose the stats would be more handy if you could see "went to showdown from bb", still though, if he's gone this far with a paired 6 or better I think he's calling the river too. I would check behind and hope he was on the flush draw unless I had any other information / reads which helped me out here. If raising is +ev here I would guesse that it is extremley marginal.

Of course I could be 100% wrong!
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DrivingDog
Old 09-20-2007, 11:13 AM #9 (permalink)  
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I didn't know this as precisely at the time but his WSD from the BB over 500 hands is 31%. His overall WSD is 35%. So while he might call a steal-raise from the BB too often he doesn't go to showdown without a decent hand.

Here's my thought process on each street in more detail:

His c/r on the flop argues for a FD, 97, 75, 6x, Kx, or 66-AA. I can probably discount 66-AA, AK, and KQ because he didn't 3bet preflop, so I 3bet the flop because I"m ahead of a good portion of his range and i want to represent a big hand, charge his draw(s) and keep the initiative. Ditto for the turn, plus the Ace adds some nice fold equity.

Once he calls the turn bet, his most likely hands are still a FD, 97, 75, 6x, and Kx. An Ace seems unlikely since he would have made two pair with A6, A4, and he'd probably raise the turn with Ahxh. Don't see him c/ring the flop with an unpaired Ace.

He's probably calling the river with Kx and probably folding anything else. I suppose it's only a 6x that might be beating me or Thxh that i can fold with a bet. A chance he'd fold a King with a weak kicker after my show of strength on each street, dunno. Does a solid player fold that hand on the river here?

So yeah not an obvious bet by any means, but it seemed worth the chance of folding a better hand in a decent-sized pot. Could be wrong though.
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Jibalob
Old 09-20-2007, 11:36 AM #10 (permalink)  
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After reading through your thought process above (and the WSD figure) I suppose the river bet is not as marginal as I first thought. My thinking for checking behind on the river is probably also affected by the super loose passive games I've been playing at ongame recently where I would almost always check behind without at least 2nd pair.

In my experience a c/r on the flop in a blind battle is either a draw or a weak hand trying to represent a strong holding which further adds to your arguement for betting the river in the hope of a fold from villain.

Unfortunately it looks like I have just proven myself wrong with a little help from your thought process above! While I havent been much help to you in this hand, you have taught me something to remember in future blind battles so thanks
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