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blind defense against a LAG shorthanded

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jmontis

09-20-2005, 06:23 AM Post subject: blind defense against a LAG shorthanded

#1 (permalink)

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this guy was like 58/38. How was the flop call on my part?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9

, 6

.
2 folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 2

, T

, 3

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 5

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: (3.25 BB) 4

(2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately

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Fnord

09-20-2005, 09:02 AM

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Ni Han

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elipsesjeff

09-20-2005, 04:04 PM

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elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point

Looks good.

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chardrian

09-20-2005, 04:54 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Sometimes going agaisnt those Ax hands sure is fun huh? NH

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come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com

|~|ypermegachi

09-20-2005, 05:43 PM

#5 (permalink)

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someone enlighten me why the flop call was good.

chardrian

09-20-2005, 05:55 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Blind defense. He most likely has 7-8 outs - often will get a free turn.

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come check out my training videos at pokerpwnage.com

Fnord

09-20-2005, 06:27 PM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by hypermegachi

someone enlighten me why the flop call was good.

Mr Shorthanded needs to read the shorthanded section of HEFAP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
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09-20-2005, 08:08 PM

#8 (permalink)

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Code:

432,630  games     0.156 secs     2,773,269  games/sec

Board: 2c 3d Ts 
Dead:  

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	77.6832 %  	77.54% 	00.14%
{ 44+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand  2:	22.3168 %  	22.18% 	00.14%
{ 9d6d }

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

jmontis

09-20-2005, 08:32 PM

#9 (permalink)

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I knew my 6 outs were good, and if i picked up a low diamond on the turn, I would definitely call a bet figuring my outs were still good.

When the river came I almost over looked the straight, but still managed to get a bet in, luckily he had an ace.

take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately

Fnord

09-20-2005, 08:40 PM

#10 (permalink)

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38% PFR LAgg opens from the CO, this plays almost exactly like a heads-up hand. You just can't play "fit or fold" on the flop. You must call with anything that has a chance. Middle pair draw + bd flush is enough.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

jmontis

09-20-2005, 08:43 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

ya, i've watched a few sessions of the UB 300-600 heads up table, and seen some pretty strange play, but i'm sure it's well thought out as long as they aren't on tilt.

take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately

Fnord

09-20-2005, 08:54 PM

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PokerStars Game #2610923271: Tournament #12747402, Hold'em Limit - Match Round I, Level IV (50/100) - 2005/09/19 - 02:36:14 (ET)
Table '12747402 1' One on One Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: HenryFnord (2345 in chips)
Seat 2: ROCKET416 (655 in chips)
HenryFnord: posts small blind 25
ROCKET416: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HenryFnord [6h Th]
HenryFnord: raises 50 to 100
ROCKET416: raises 50 to 150
HenryFnord: calls 50
*** FLOP *** [Kd 4c 2h]
ROCKET416: bets 50
HenryFnord: calls 50
*** TURN *** [Kd 4c 2h] [5d]
ROCKET416: bets 100
HenryFnord: calls 100
*** RIVER *** [Kd 4c 2h 5d] [Qd]
ROCKET416: bets 100
HenryFnord: folds
ROCKET416 collected 600 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 600 | Rake 0
Board [Kd 4c 2h 5d Qd]
Seat 1: HenryFnord (button) (small blind) folded on the River
Seat 2: ROCKET416 (big blind) collected (600)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Demiparadigm

09-21-2005, 12:10 AM

#13 (permalink)

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I don't like the flop call.
On either hand.
I think a call on the turn is fine though.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

elipsesjeff

09-21-2005, 12:14 AM

#14 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

I don't like the flop call.

Why? Just because he doesn't have overcards doesn't mean his cards aren't outs.

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Demiparadigm

09-21-2005, 12:50 AM

#15 (permalink)

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Yes, but they are ugly, out of position outs.
Just because he's heads up doesn't mean he's not drawing dead.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

thenonsequitur

09-21-2005, 12:57 AM

#16 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Just because he doesn't have overcards doesn't mean his cards aren't outs.

Just because he has outs doesn't mean he has the odds. Sure, his outs to a pair are *probably* live, but not always, and even when it hits, this hand is very vulnerable to redraws. Also important, it's difficult to tell when you are ahead/behind and by how much in this situation. It's easy to make a mistake because you lack so much information and have such a weak holding.

I'm leaning towards a fold on the flop here, but I can understand a call. If it's a call it's a very thin one. I'd be a lot more inclined to call if it was possible to hit an OESD on the turn, and/or if my cards were a little higher (say 89s instead of 69s).

jmontis

09-21-2005, 01:40 AM

#17 (permalink)

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this is why I posted it heh, I knew it was controversial right after the hand was played.

If you want to get technical, 6 outs + 1 backdoorflush draw = 7 outs

7 outs requires 5.6:1 pot odds, I had 5:1 so it was slightly below break even. However, since I obviously destroyed him at the river, the hidden implied odds took care of the rest.

I'd fold this hand all day against the typical player, but take into consideration he was 58/38, raising any 2 cards almost every hand, and I had to defend my blind.

take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately

|~|ypermegachi

09-21-2005, 03:08 AM

#18 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jmontis

you are seriously overcounting your overcards outs. you're still drawing dead vs TT-AA. if you're going to consider them as outs you should discount them. i'd say it would be reasonable to have them at 4 instead of 6 outs. and i think that's overly generous.

Demiparadigm

09-21-2005, 03:25 AM

#19 (permalink)

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Also consider that if your cards are outs, even most LAgs won't pay you off if they are beaten(as shown by his turn check), but you will often pay them off when you hit and they are better.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

09-21-2005, 03:28 AM

#20 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by hypermegachi

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmontis

Exactly. They are what's called "partial" outs, meaning they are good only part of the time.

So let's say the 6 pair outs are good 50% of the time
that doesn't mean that he won't get outdrawn after he hits those outs
We can give those outs 30% at best due to redraws and the chance he's drawing almost dead

the only reason he got so many bets in was because of a 1 in 80 shot and his opponent having the straight, but a lower one

realize that this happening once in a hundred times (ace + hitting the straight) only gives him 4% higher implied odds

Now say he hits a nine on the turn. Does he call a bet? Since that's what he was drawing to, he's supposed to bet once he hits his hand. What if the opponent's hand is a bigger pair or a pair of tens? He loses two or three bets making his second-best hand.

Now his opponent might lose a bet on the turn and fold the river, losing a bet. That's because the lagg has position.

Drawing to something like 2 outs (since they are partial) with some 25-1 and 80-1 draws is not a good idea. Betting the flop or raising both seem like better ideas unless the player is a real maniac post-flop as well.

Fnord

09-21-2005, 11:02 AM

#21 (permalink)

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HU (as in no other players dealt in) vs an over-aggro opponent you MUST make lots of loose calls on the flop, otherwise you will get run over. HEFAP discusses this. Quite often no one has much of anything, so you don't have to be drawing to much. These calls take away much of his profit from betting too much.

Similar situation when facing a CO/Button steal from a wide range (know your player!) in a 6 max or even full ring game.

Play three or four HU SnGs on Stars (5+.25 works.) The other guy almost always tries to run you over durring levels 1 and 2. To the point of doing stupid shit like auto-3-betting when you pick your spot to play back.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

elipsesjeff

09-21-2005, 12:59 PM

#22 (permalink)

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aren't you forgetting your backdoor straight draw, to which you actually HIT!! That goes from 6.5 to 8 outs and you could probably check raise the turn here on a semibluff

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09-21-2005, 06:56 PM

#23 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

aren't you forgetting your backdoor straight draw, to which you actually HIT!! That goes from 6.5 to 8 outs and you could probably check raise the turn here on a semibluff

How does an eighty to one shot count as 1.5 outs? It's barely half an out.

09-21-2005, 06:58 PM

#24 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Heads-up your opponent plays almost 100% of the hands. Here he's playing 50%
Your hand is in the bottom 40%
In heads up nine high is good maybe 30% of the time
Here nine high is good maybe 10% of the time

Fnord

09-21-2005, 07:00 PM

#25 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

Your hand is in the bottom 40%
In heads up nine high is good maybe 30% of the time
Here nine high is good maybe 10% of the time

It's a 7 card game bro.

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chardrian

09-21-2005, 07:57 PM

#26 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

Blind defense. He most likely has 7-8 outs - often will get a free turn.

never been able to quote myself before - god it feels good to know I've actually learned something. He has both a back door str8 and back door flush draw. He does need runner runner for both so, I am more inclined to lean more towards 7 outs - but it's definitely 7 outs minimum.

iopq - I think you are focusing too much on the "your outs might not be good" thought. In almost every hand your outs might not be good.

E.g. you raise preflop in BB with AK and 5 limpers call. Flop comes 38J rainbow. Are you really going to fold to one small bet on the flop because you are concerned that your A or K might actually not be an out? No - you call/bet/raise away telling yourself you have 6 outs and pot odds demand you play.

Given this guys huge raising tendency you gotta give yourself 7 outs minimum and go from there.

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jmontis

09-21-2005, 08:51 PM

#27 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

Given this guys huge raising tendency you gotta give yourself 7 outs minimum and go from there.

this thread exploded, but definitely interesting to see all the view points.

basically, don't let LAGs run you over in short handed play, gamble within reason to let them know you don't always fold to a flop bet or blind steal.

take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately

09-21-2005, 09:28 PM

#28 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

Blind defense. He most likely has 7-8 outs - often will get a free turn.

It's 7.5 outs some time, 4.5 outs some other time and 1.5 outs yet another time

How does that average to 7? I'd say 6 is maximum amount of outs I'd give myself.

chardrian

09-21-2005, 09:43 PM

#29 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

How does that average to 7? I'd say 6 is maximum amount of outs I'd give myself.

Screw your averages - it's 7 outs cuz this guy is so damn LAGGy.

But IMO... even if it is 6 outs. You gotta call the flop still.

If the turn is a T or higher and he bets again - fine now you can fold. Any card between 4-9, or any diamond and you keep trucking.

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|~|ypermegachi

09-21-2005, 09:59 PM

#30 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

If the turn is a T or higher and he bets again - fine now you can fold.

against a LAG how can you be sure they aren't bluffing you out?

Demiparadigm

09-22-2005, 12:01 AM

#31 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by hypermegachi

Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

If the turn is a T or higher and he bets again - fine now you can fold.

against a LAG how can you be sure they aren't bluffing you out?

They are probably bluffing.
They are also probably bluffing with a hand better than yours.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

09-22-2005, 09:01 AM

#32 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

Quote:

Originally Posted by hypermegachi

Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

If the turn is a T or higher and he bets again - fine now you can fold.

against a LAG how can you be sure they aren't bluffing you out?

They are probably bluffing.
They are also probably bluffing with a hand better than yours.

In that case it's a definite raise. (unless he's way too loose postflop)

elipsesjeff

09-22-2005, 12:24 PM

#33 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

Quote:

Originally Posted by hypermegachi

Quote:

Originally Posted by chardrian

If the turn is a T or higher and he bets again - fine now you can fold.

against a LAG how can you be sure they aren't bluffing you out?

They are probably bluffing.
They are also probably bluffing with a hand better than yours.

The way you play contradicts what you say.

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thenonsequitur

09-22-2005, 02:07 PM

#34 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=19562

I don't understand the comparison you are trying to make. The hand in this thread and the hand in the posted link are entirely different in nature.

elipsesjeff

09-22-2005, 03:54 PM

#35 (permalink)

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he institutes folding when he actually has outs, but then spews chips on a complete asinine play.

Something isn't clicking.

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blind defense against a LAG shorthanded

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