Oh, good, I'm not losing my mind and seeing things. Stud hands are great for discussion because there are so many places the evidence comes from.
Originally Posted by bjsaust
As far as the "obvious" comment is concerned, raising your straight here is right for a couple of reasons:
Originally Posted by bjsaust
1) You'll often get called down in Stud repping a big hand (excepting maybe a high four flush with your up-cards) because people just don't believe you. You'd think that having 4 cards visible would be a deterrent comparing to repping a hand in flop games but it's often quite the opposite at low stakes, that players see your board and think you are just trying to turn the implied strength of it into a bluff.
2) With a player(s?) still to act, your raise is your best chance of defending a somewhat vulnerable hand against marginal draws looking to score a cheap river, ie. You don't want a low two pair getting a chance to fill up on the cheap or to give a gutshot a chance at 1 of the 4 cards he needs. It's tough to say without a hand history, but Stud pots by 6th are often big enough that it's almost never wrong for marginal draws to call ONE bb on 6th if they are closing the action and think making their hand will make them best. If you make it TWO bets in that same situation it can become a mistake for opps behind you to call. They might still call, but at least you did what you could to defend and heads-up showdowns always make for really easy 7th street decisions.
You're opening yourself up to get reraised by the original bettor, sure, but let's think about what he has. We're ruling out a flush. With a [Q J 4 T] board, he would have had to have AK, K9 or 98 in the hole to hit his straight on 6th. AK is highly unlikely. For one thing, two Aces and two Kings are already visible (maybe more?) so the odds are against it (and I'll suggest not being scared of K9 for the same reason). As well, my own personal philosophy in many Limit games is that the Aces are spread out in family pots with bad players, leading to all the pre-flop calls in the first place. Lastly, thinking back to 3rd street play, AKQ might have been a raise depending on the betting order and up cards, so you're thinking back to that and using it for evidence. We're really only scared of 98 and not a range of hands then, and I'll pay off that small percentage of hands that beat me. Two pair and strong draws are probably betting out on 6th too, so that's what I'll put him on and call a single raise back to me.
Generally, if you see 7th, you're at least calling with most made hands that have a chance to win. Almost every Stud pot is big enough by then to justify doing so. I'm not clear on the betting order on this street from your history but will say that Kings-up is a more likely holding here for the donk bettor than a Full House, unless you think he had Kings-up before this street and didn't bet with it. Still, refer to my general comment from the beginning of this paragraph and call.
Stud-Hi is a high variance game due to the number of betting rounds. You're going to pay stupid people off on 7th more than you'd like but it's necessary as you'll find yourself getting shipped the pot with marginal holdings way more often than you thought possible.