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big pot with AK

  
 
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YuujiA
Old 02-13-2008, 07:20 PM     Post subject: big pot with AK #1 (permalink)  

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YuujiA
Hello, Please critique my play here, is there anything i should have done? I realize that by the turn he had more than enough odds to call...

Full Tilt Poker Game #5240953243: Table Pine Ranch - $0.25/$0.50 - Limit Hold'em - 15:10:19 ET - 2008/02/13
Seat 1: player1 ($24.25)
Seat 2: player2 ($5.70)
Seat 3: YuujiA ($4.25)
Seat 4: player3 ($6.45)
Seat 5: player4 ($22.25)
Seat 6: villain ($10.25)
Seat 7: player5 ($9.15)
Seat 8: player6 ($148.75)
Seat 9: player7 ($25.40)
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to YuujiA [Kh As]
player1 folds
player2 folds
YuujiA has 15 seconds left to act
YuujiA raises to $0.50
player3 folds
player4 folds
villain calls $0.50
player5 folds
player6 folds
player7 raises to $0.75
YuujiA has 15 seconds left to act
YuujiA calls $0.25
villain calls $0.25
*** FLOP *** [4c 3d Ks]
player7 checks
YuujiA bets $0.25
villain calls $0.25
player7 calls $0.25
*** TURN *** [4c 3d Ks] [7d]
player7 checks
YuujiA bets $0.50
villain calls $0.50
player7 folds
*** RIVER *** [4c 3d Ks 7d] [8d]
YuujiA bets $0.50
villain raises to $1
YuujiA calls $0.50
*** SHOW DOWN ***
villain shows [Td Ad] a flush, Ace high
YuujiA shows [Kh As] a pair of Kings
villain wins the pot ($5.80) with a flush, Ace high
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snowboard_31
Old 02-13-2008, 08:11 PM #2 (permalink)  
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just a bummer dude, he might folded flop if the 3better pre flop had bet the flop and you raised so you could face him with 2 cold. But you did what you did and I woulda b/c the river also considering he could be calling down with a weaker king.
1. Get a seat to their right
2. Steal blinds at will
3. ...
4. Profit
"It should be a crime to not bet if someone has checked to you twice."
-soupie
"If you can pinpoint a player's range, you can own his soul."
-Bond18
 
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arborman
Old 02-13-2008, 10:16 PM #3 (permalink)  
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arborman
Runner draws sucking out on you are a part of the game. Losing that pot is an investment in the future, in that you have provided that weak player with positive reinforcement for poor play. The other 85% of the time he will chase that draw and lose. You want him at your table.
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DrivingDog
Old 02-13-2008, 11:08 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I fold this the first time he raises us on the river. What hand is he raising here that we beat?

Second time I call...
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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arborman
Old 02-13-2008, 11:27 PM #5 (permalink)  
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arborman
You can't fold to a river raise with a scare card the first time against an opponent, or at least I can't. Once I have a read that villain calls down weak draws and only raises nuts, then a river fold is easy next time it happens. (This looks like one of those hands).

With new opponents, there are enough players out there who will raise a river scare card in hopes of inducing a fold that it is worth calling down.

Because raising a river scare card is a tactic worth using on occasion, against excessively tight players who autofold to a raise with the third flush card comes on the river.
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DrivingDog
Old 02-13-2008, 11:56 PM #6 (permalink)  
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It's not a scare card. It's a backdoor flush card. He's expecting you to call whether you're a good player or not. When your opponent raises and is expecting you to call it means he has you beat.

I'm not saying I make a habit out of folding here because that's too exploitable. But the first time it happens, yeah I puke-fold this. A BB saved is as good as a BB won.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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snowboard_31
Old 02-14-2008, 12:04 AM #7 (permalink)  
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after he raises the pot is $5.50 and its $0.50 to us, so 11:1, even tho hes beat 90% of the time, you still have the odds to call right?
1. Get a seat to their right
2. Steal blinds at will
3. ...
4. Profit
"It should be a crime to not bet if someone has checked to you twice."
-soupie
"If you can pinpoint a player's range, you can own his soul."
-Bond18
 
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arborman
Old 02-14-2008, 12:08 AM #8 (permalink)  
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arborman
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
It's not a scare card. It's a backdoor flush card. He's expecting you to call whether you're a good player or not. When your opponent raises and is expecting you to call it means he has you beat.

I'm not saying I make a habit out of folding here because that's too exploitable. But the first time it happens, yeah I puke-fold this. A BB saved is as good as a BB won.
True enough, but I tend to think of that BB as purchasing information. Now I know that he cold calls an ep raise with ATs and position, chases a BDFD and an overcard, and raises when he is made. That will affect my later play against him and save or win me more than one BB. If I fold I go into a later hand with no information except that he called to the river and then raised a third flush card.

And I am not 95% certain he is ahead of me, this time.

I suppose the EV of calling for detailed information is different depending on the number of times you expect to see this player again. But that is likely a level too deep for a simple river call or fold.

I have, on occasion against a weak tight player, tried the line used by the villain in this hand, and sometimes it has succeeded in causing him to fold. I don't do it often, and it requires a specific read that the player is susceptible to MUBS, but it does work in some circumstances. And I have caught the occasional player trying it against me as well.
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dsaxton
Old 02-14-2008, 01:28 AM #9 (permalink)  
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dsaxton
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
I fold this the first time he raises us on the river. What hand is he raising here that we beat?

Second time I call...
I would call the first time and then consider folding the second time if he showed a flush the first time. I think you should be more inclined to make calls like this when a player is still unknown.
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DrivingDog
Old 02-14-2008, 09:01 AM #10 (permalink)  
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It's just such an implausible card to bluff at. An 8 that completes a bd flush. We've been betting the whole way so presumably we have something we'd be inclined to call a raise with.

If it were two diamonds on the flop and then the third on the river I could see someone bluffing it. Or say we had KQ and an Ace came on the river, I'd be inclined to call that as well.

But since we don't have a read on him, he presumably doesn't have a read on us that we're 3barreling and/or capable of folding a decent hand. So he's expecting to be called every time and he's bluffing less than 1/12 times imo.

On the other hand, it's .25/.50 so maybe he is bad enough to try to bluff here.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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cowboyardee
Old 02-14-2008, 09:58 AM #11 (permalink)  

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cowboyardee
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
On the other hand, it's .25/.50 so maybe he is bad enough to try to bluff here.
That was my thought -- just looking at the hand history indicates that opp is probably bad enough to try a WTF bluff cuz he had a good feeling. At 11:1 at this level against an unknown, you've got your pot odds to call IMO, before even considering the information bonus.
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DrivingDog
Old 02-14-2008, 12:08 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Whatever the relative merits of going to showdown in any particular situation are (and in this particular case you can argue either way), calling 'for information' is not one of them. The reason is that it gives away more information value than it obtains.

When you call for information, you get the benefit of seeing your opponent's cards. Count that as +1 in information value for you. The entire table gets that benefit as well. That's irrelevant to you so count that as 0. The entire table also gets the benefit of seeing your cards. Count that as -1 * X opponents in information value (-8 in this case). How does this help you?

The only reason to call a river raise is if you believe the pot odds support a call. Calling for information alone is a negative sum proposition and should only be done at a HU table.

The flip side of information value is disinformation (deception) value. Think of the deception value you gain when you fold here after betting out on all three streets. The impression you foster is either:

a) You 3barrel bluffed and got caught; or
b) You folded a good hand to a horrible bluff

Both of these are great for your image. Most likely, your opponents will think you did a) because no-one folds TP on the river. Thus, you are more likely to get called down or raised by junk in the future. Conversely, if they interpret your action as b) they may start raising their junk on the river. Both of these gain you extra bets.

Again, I emphasise that this doesn't mean that you should fold this every time or even this time. I'm just arguing that calling 'for information' at a multiplayer table is entirely the wrong way of looking at these situations.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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DrivingDog
Old 02-14-2008, 01:56 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cowboyardee
just looking at the hand history indicates that opp is probably bad enough to try a WTF bluff cuz he had a good feeling.
we dont have this information until after the hand...another reason not to post results when we're looking for a critique.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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snowboard_31
Old 02-14-2008, 02:33 PM #14 (permalink)  
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I semi agree with DD, calling for information here shouldnt be your prime motivator, it should be the pot odds for one bet on the river. I think Sklansky makes it pretty clear that folding for one bet on the river (minus any STRONG reads) is horrible.
1. Get a seat to their right
2. Steal blinds at will
3. ...
4. Profit
"It should be a crime to not bet if someone has checked to you twice."
-soupie
"If you can pinpoint a player's range, you can own his soul."
-Bond18
 
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arborman
Old 02-14-2008, 04:01 PM #15 (permalink)  
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arborman
Your opponents knowing you will raise AK preflop and bet tptk to the river is hardly some kind of stunning revelation. Knowing you will look them up on a river raise is not a bad thing either.
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DrivingDog
Old 02-14-2008, 05:11 PM #16 (permalink)  
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it does reveal you're incapable of folding TP, though i agree that is not stunning for most people.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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arborman
Old 02-14-2008, 07:08 PM #17 (permalink)  
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arborman
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
it does reveal you're incapable of folding TP, though i agree that is not stunning for most people.
Incapable is not the right word here. If they saw your hand they saw the opponent as well. So you don't fold tptk on one hand against a player who plays badly. I'm not saying I would call this every time, but I'm calling it as often as I'm folding it - the decision is entirely read (or lack of read) dependent.

We are getting pretty esoteric here talking about the EV of other players seeing your hand. In reality, 95% of the decent players stopped watching the table as soon as they made the decision to fold, because they have other tables going or whatever. And anyone who was watching will either get a false read on hero (because it was a situational river call) or will decide to chase their next backdoor flush, because they saw villain do it.
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DrivingDog
Old 02-14-2008, 07:59 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arborman
Incapable is not the right word here. If they saw your hand they saw the opponent as well. So you don't fold tptk on one hand against a player who plays badly.
Of course you don't fold TPTK against a player who plays badly. But here, you have no evidence at the decision point (i.e, after he raised the river and it is back to you) that he plays badly. Only once you pay him off do you see that he chased.



Quote:
Originally Posted by arborman
We are getting pretty esoteric here talking about the EV of other players seeing your hand. In reality, 95% of the decent players stopped watching the table as soon as they made the decision to fold, because they have other tables going or whatever.
I don't see what is esoteric about the idea that you give up more information than you gain by 'calling for information'. If the players not involved in the hand are not watching other players at their table they are either playing too many tables or they're not a decent player. At best, showing your hand gives information to the guy who raised you and has neutral information value (because you get to see his hand as well). If even one of your other opponents is paying attention, then it has negative information value. The point is 'calling for information' is not a reason to call at a multiplayer table - it's not even close to being one.



Quote:
Originally Posted by arborman
And anyone who was watching will either get a false read on hero (because it was a situational river call)
How does seeing your cards give someone a false read on you? Are you suggesting the situation is so full of complexity that your opponents will be unable to comprehend the fact that you bet all the way with TPTK and then called a river raise with it? Are you saying they will somehow think you're a different kind of player than your actions indicate? How would they possibly misinterpret your play?



Quote:
Originally Posted by arborman
or will decide to chase their next backdoor flush, because they saw villain do it.
Don't give your opponents much credit do you? Ok, let's assume the 5% of your opponents that are paying attention are also simple-minded enough to emulate others' bad play. Do you really need to pay your money so they can witness another example of bad play? Won't they see enough examples of this if they stick around long enough?
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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arborman
Old 02-14-2008, 09:16 PM #19 (permalink)  
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arborman
Ok fair enough. Maybe I do call river raises too often. I'll have a peek into pokertracker and see if it is the right action more than 10.6% of the time when raised (which would justify a call simply for value). I don't know if I have enough hands with this exact circumstance to make any kind of generalization but maybe I can include hands where a straight draw completes as well.

I stand by my statement that calling or folding to the raise on this river is read dependent almost every time. There are many players to whom I would never, ever fold to a river raise if I had any cards at all. And there are many to whom I fold without a second thought. But all of those are based on previously observed behaviour.
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