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big draw iffy board

  
 
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drmcboy
Old 10-14-2008, 09:08 PM     Post subject: big draw iffy board #1 (permalink)  
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 BB seems tight and standard

MP fired 3 shells at a super dry AQx board with KQTx but except for that no read.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $2 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button ($142.75)
SB ($201)
BB ($246.90)
UTG ($228.55)
MP ($208.60)
Hero ($185)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8, 9, 6, 7.
1 fold, MP calls $2, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, BB calls $4, MP calls $4.

Flop: ($19) J, 6, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $14, BB calls $14, MP raises to $74.05,Hero
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TLR
Old 10-15-2008, 08:35 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 wow, tough spot, Especially with the BB calling, I think I reraise


 
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krimson
Old 10-16-2008, 01:43 PM #3 (permalink)  
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By "big draw" you mean 3 outs to the nuts + back-door baby FD?
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drmcboy
Old 10-16-2008, 02:25 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krimson
By "big draw" you mean 3 outs to the nuts + back-door baby FD?
Quote:
Originally Posted by title
big draw iffy board
Do you have something useful to add? If there were no spades and the J was a 2 it wouldn't be posted.
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bigspenda73
Old 10-16-2008, 05:47 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 I've been thinking about this hand for a while

torn between all 3 options

a. Call- the biggest thing to remember here is we'll have position on the turn

If we flat the flop and the turn comes good (about half the deck: non-spade 2/3/5/T/K/ and 6/8 for 19) we can just ship and that should improve our stack-off equity tremendously. Also, if our opponent happened to flop a set or a wrap the turn can slow them down a lot and even provide us an opportunity to bluff.

B. Raise

Let's at this point assume we have very little FE as this has to be one of the worst boars to bluff-pot raise. We have two blockers to sets so our opponent either has

a. Top set
b. Top 2
c. Overpair+FD
d. Wrap+pair
e. Wrap+FD

We have to determine our equity against these hands. To be nice I'm not even going to include too many blockers in some of the hands

Top set:
6s 8c 7c 9h 30.24
Jd 7d Jh 6h 67.07

Top 2:
6s 8c 7c 9h 39.88
8d 7d Qh Jh 58.78

Overpair+FD:
6s 8c 7c 9h 50.49
Ks Qs Qh Jh 49.51

Wrap+Pair:
6s 8c 7c 9h 51.20
7s 9d 8d Th 48.80

Wrap+FD:
6s 8c 7c 9h 37.30
Ts 7s 9d 8d 62.70

So, as we can see there is not even a hand we're a true favorite against in the bunch

C. Fold- This is the first thing that came into my mind, we only have 10BBs invested and frankly, our opponents range for raising this flop has us in pretty bad shape (as he might just even flat pr+wrap with the FD out there waiting for a safe turn).

So, I'm fairly set on folding, this is just one of those spots where our hand is so easily dominated by better draws, we only have 3 true outs on the turn to the nuts and even then our hand would still only by a 60-80% favorite and wouldn't be a lock.
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krimson
Old 10-16-2008, 06:19 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drmcboy
Do you have something useful to add? If there were no spades and the J was a 2 it wouldn't be posted.
OK, I'd fold.

I would not call, since there are very few turn cards that I like. You are basically only ahead of a bluff, like bigspenda says. Omaha is about the nuts and big draws, not catching a bluffers when you hold bottom two pair.
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drmcboy
Old 10-16-2008, 06:21 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 ty spenda, great post.
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