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koolmoe
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01-12-2005, 01:44 AM
Post subject: Betting the river with a strong hand when a scare card hits
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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UTG is loose-aggressive, MP is loose-passive. What's your play on the river here?
Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is Button with K , K .
UTG raises, MP calls, CO folds, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, MP calls.
Flop: (10.40 SB) 7 , 5, 6 (3 players)
UTG bets, MP calls, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP calls.
Turn: (8.20 BB) K (3 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, MP calls.
River: (11.20 BB) 9 (3 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero ???
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Close your eyes and bet!
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jbmagic
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 90
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trips showing, you have to bet, especially if people in front check
should he call or fold if the people in front raise?
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Ayce
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Bet, unless you have a very aggressive table image and bet even then if you want to maintain that image. The loose passive is the only threat, a loose aggressive would have already bet at you with the straight.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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This isn't about table image. Bet for value because worse hands call/raise.
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Jes_Gru
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 209
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Given that I do not play that limit, I personally would check.
If I bet, and got checked-raised, I would not be able to let the set go.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Jes_Gru
If I bet, and got checked-raised, I would not be able to let the set go.
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So what? You have the best hand more often than not and can expect worse hands to call/raise.
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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it depends what kinda mood i'm in. this kind board usually only have people call or raise better hands. worse hands won't call unless they are incredibly stupid (which happens far too much, but i'm not complaining)
if i'm up a whole bunch for the session i'll bet it, if i just started or on a slump i'll check it down.
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Toasty
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: England UK
Posts: 1,522
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I have to come down on the check side too as I would hate to have to fold/call this hand to a re-raise. with one person in the pot its worth the value bet but with 2 I'm not so sure.
Missed Flushes will fold, missed straight will fold, straights will call/CR and top pair might even fold because the board is so drawey.
I'm not so sure a raise is +EV and it will increase your Std Var which is another bonus for checking.
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Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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This ain't TPTK or an overpair. It's top set...
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koolmoe
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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UTG held A7o
MP held 96s
I checked, and I missed at least one bet here, possibly 3 or 4. I'm pretty sure MP was waiting to check raise what I'm sure he thought was pocket AA. There is no way he doesn't raise if UTG folds, which he probably would have.
As we all know, the proper decision comes down to how often your bet will be called or raised by a worse hand versus being called or raised by a better hand. Heads up, you'd need to be called twice as often as you would be raised to make it +EV (assuming you're only raised by better hands and always call the raise).
Three handed you don't need to be called as often, since you'll sometimes get two callers, but the odds that one of the cards you fear is out there is greater (espcially against these two 60% VP$IP chumps). Also, the likelihood of overcalls is reduced by the scare card.
I'm not sure what the right answer is, but my river aggression is a little anemic (1.31), and I've been looking for places I should be betting. I started dropping it to induce bluffs by the LAggs in 6 max, and I just haven't gotten it back into a reasonable range. I think it is behind my recent slumps. Either that or I just suck.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Toasty
I'm not so sure a raise is +EV and it will increase your Std Var which is another bonus for checking.
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It's +EV. If the online players in that game weren't so bad you might be able to argue otherwise.
The Std Var argument is silly online. Just fire up 4+ tables on a 1600x1200 screen and make the best play.
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Toasty
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: England UK
Posts: 1,522
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
The Std Var argument is silly online. Just fire up 4+ tables on a 1600x1200 screen and make the best play.
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1600 by 1200 I wish, I really need to invest in a new monitor some 19" mofo, or buy a cheap ass one and use 2.
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Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .
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