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DoGGz
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10-12-2005, 09:05 AM
Post subject: Badbeat jackpot on party.
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#1 (permalink)
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I only play limit sometimes, but as I was signing off today I saw the that party jackpot was at $396,000. That's a lot higher then it normally is. With such a large jackpot there has to be positive equity playing at these tables right now. So I question...
At what point do you think it is worth playing on the bad beat tables, how large does the jackpot have to get? Also, do any of you switch and play on the bad beat tables when the jackpot rockets up this high? I definately would play it over 300k if there were NL tables offered, but that is not the case.
Discuss.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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Chasing the jackpot is for suckers (unless you collude with the rest of the table, however it would be so obvious that Party probably wouldn't pay it off.)
Your best bet is finding a table where lots of players are taking lots of trash to showdown. However, the standard is so high (quads or better winner and loser) that might not even matter much. As least at such a table you could play any pocket pair from any position...
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DoGGz
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Chasing the jackpot is for suckers (unless you collude with the rest of the table, however it would be so obvious that Party probably wouldn't pay it off.)
Your best bet is finding a table where lots of players are taking lots of trash to showdown. However, the standard is so high (quads or better winner and loser) that might not even matter much. As least at such a table you could play any pocket pair from any position...
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Right, but there is a point where the jackpot is so large that the chance of hitting the jackpot is higher then the 50 cent rake.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by doggz
Right, but there is a point where the jackpot is so large that the chance of hitting the jackpot is higher then the 50 cent rake.
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Yes, which makes the table worth playing over an equally fishy non-jackpot table. However, "chasing" in terms of pre-flop play is generally not worth it. I could see a post-flop situation where it *might* tip you towards a call, although given the high standard it's really hard to nail someone on a jackpot hand worth chasing against. You certainly won't be laying down a jackpot hand if you have one...
However, at B&M these situations are more common. At Diamond Lils it was Aces over Jacks or better beaten by Quads or better (both cards must play.) I remember making a bad fold to save $8 once where I had a 1 out shot at the big share of a $5k jackpot and looking back at the play as silly...
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DoGGz
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by doggz
Right, but there is a point where the jackpot is so large that the chance of hitting the jackpot is higher then the 50 cent rake.
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Yes, which makes the table worth playing over an equally fishy non-jackpot table. However, "chasing" in terms of pre-flop play is generally not worth it. I could see a post-flop situation where it *might* tip you towards a call, although given the high standard it's really hard to nail someone on a jackpot hand worth chasing against. You certainly won't be laying down a jackpot hand if you have one...
However, at B&M these situations are more common. At Diamond Lils it was Aces over Jacks or better beaten by Quads or better (both cards must play.) I remember making a bad fold to save $8 once where I had a 1 out shot at the big share of a $5k jackpot and looking back at the play as silly... |
Right. I'm not really talking about these situations, more as situations where you'd move your game to the bad beat tables because of the jackpot. It's obviously a cut and dry mathematical forumula that would tell you how large the jackpot has to be, but I'm also interested if any of the serious limit players do this.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by doggz
Right. I'm not really talking about these situations, more as situations where you'd move your game to the bad beat tables because of the jackpot. It's obviously a cut and dry mathematical forumula that would tell you how large the jackpot has to be, but I'm also interested if any of the serious limit players do this.
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This is almost a Microsoft interview question...
The way I would figure it out is look at the size of the jackpot the last few times it hit (bigger sample better.) The median jackpot size divided by .9 (to cover the "adminstrative fee" Party takes out) should be the approximate point where your jackpot equity equals the drop on a typical table.
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DoGGz
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
This is almost a Microsoft interview question
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So I have potential?? 
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by doggz
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
This is almost a Microsoft interview question
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So I have potential?? |
I didn't see your answer.
How about this one:
We play russian roulette. The gun has 6 chambers and I put bullets in 2 adjacent chambers. I go first. SPIIIIINNN, pray, pull, CLICK! Your turn.
I offer you the option of spinning the chamber again before pulling the trigger. Should you take it? Why?
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sinky
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: SCOTLAND
Posts: 295
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Don't spin! Why ? "Adjacent" is the key word. If you don't spin the 2nd bullet is out of play.
4 out of 6 chance you survive if you spin
3 out of 4 chance you survive if you don't
But how big was the Pot ????
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sinky
But how big was the Pot ????
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It didn't say, but you had position...
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Tim Vecchioni
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Maryland US
Posts: 327
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the jackpot...its a good game anytime no matter how high the jackpot is, however...you gotta go there thinking its a regular table and not the BB tables...cause then you will wanna play stupid cards in hope to hit the jackpot. Go there and play your regular game and you will find a lot of people playing 2/4 suited 5/9 suited and stupid shit like that and when they hit the pairs they stick with em even though the only reason he called was to hopefully hit the jackpot. So the answer to your question is anytime you can play this game and profit if you play it correctly.
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back looking to make some moolah
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koolmoe
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
The way I would figure it out is look at the size of the jackpot the last few times it hit (bigger sample better.) The median jackpot size divided by .9 (to cover the "adminstrative fee" Party takes out) should be the approximate point where your jackpot equity equals the drop on a typical table.
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They only pay out 70% of the jackpot, using 20% to seed the next jackpot and 10% for administrative fee.
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Poker is freedom
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koolmoe
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Drowning in prosperity
Posts: 1,279
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by doggz
Right, but there is a point where the jackpot is so large that the chance of hitting the jackpot is higher then the 50 cent rake.
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It's possible to figure out. Your equity needs to be higher than 50c/number of players at the table (typically 5c).
First calculate the odds of a bad beat hand occurring between any two hands at the table. Then figure your equity as (ten player example)
0.7*(0.5*0.1+0.25*0.1+0.25*0.08)*odds*(Advertised Jackpot)
The above accounts for the amount Party pays (70%) plus the payout for the different ways you can win (50% to loser, 25% to winner, 25% shared among the rest of the table).
You need to discount this by some factor as not all hands that could make a jackpot hand will be played. If you just stuck with PP's and suited connectors, you would probably be close.
This assumes that play at a BBJ table is the same as a regular table. IMO, BBJ tables play much looser than regular tables, so it compensates for the extra 5c rake you pay per hand.
As an aside, I once flopped a straight flush with KQs and beat 78s which flopped a lower straqight flush. Unfortunately it wasn't a Bad Beat table (wasn't even on Party).
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Poker is freedom
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by koolmoe
First calculate the odds of a bad beat hand occurring between any two hands at the table. Then figure your equity as (ten player example)
..blah blah blah...
You need to discount this by some factor as not all hands that could make a jackpot hand will be played. If you just stuck with PP's and suited connectors, you would probably be close.
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This process is sufficently complicated and error prone, that I think you're better off just working from the median jackpot size. An adjustment for the 20% seed should get me there.
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pokerfanatic
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: 6max limit tables
Posts: 1,968
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i have played them a couple times like fonord said chasing the JP is for suckers but suckers make good player money... the games here are typicly extreamly donky...
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“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~
"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~
"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
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Room
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 197
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sinky
Don't spin! Why ? "Adjacent" is the key word. If you don't spin the 2nd bullet is out of play.
4 out of 6 chance you survive if you spin
3 out of 4 chance you survive if you don't
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X=Bullett
O=Blank
Chamber arrangement - OOXOOX
When Fnord pulls a blank, hes either at position 1, 2, 4, or 5. Therefore there are 2 possible scenarios left:
1) X then O, or
2) O then X
Your odds would be 1-to-1 once you knew Fnord pulled a blank.
By spinning again, you get the original odds of 2-to-1.
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G_host
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 227
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Back to the orig q, if you are lazy and trust BW to do the math:
BBJ Level Required for +EV:
Level BBJ Level
$2-$4 $130,000
$3-$6 $149,000
$5-$10 $177,000
$10-$20 $189,000
$15-$30 $198,000
Then we have the extra ishtyness of the the game, is it really that bad?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Room
Quote:
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Originally Posted by sinky
Don't spin! Why ? "Adjacent" is the key word. If you don't spin the 2nd bullet is out of play.
4 out of 6 chance you survive if you spin
3 out of 4 chance you survive if you don't
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X=Bullett
O=Blank
Chamber arrangement - OOXOOX
When Fnord pulls a blank, hes either at position 1, 2, 4, or 5. Therefore there are 2 possible scenarios left:
1) X then O, or
2) O then X
Your odds would be 1-to-1 once you knew Fnord pulled a blank.
By spinning again, you get the original odds of 2-to-1. |
This is correct. It's like the Monty Hall problem.
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outphase
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 949
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Room
Quote:
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Originally Posted by sinky
Don't spin! Why ? "Adjacent" is the key word. If you don't spin the 2nd bullet is out of play.
4 out of 6 chance you survive if you spin
3 out of 4 chance you survive if you don't
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X=Bullett
O=Blank
Chamber arrangement - OOXOOX
When Fnord pulls a blank, hes either at position 1, 2, 4, or 5. Therefore there are 2 possible scenarios left:
1) X then O, or
2) O then X
Your odds would be 1-to-1 once you knew Fnord pulled a blank.
By spinning again, you get the original odds of 2-to-1. |
This is correct. It's like the Monty Hall problem. |
But this problem is not the one Fnord presented. chambers 3 and 6 are not adjacent to each other.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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I spin again, aim the gun at Fnord and rattle off 6 clicks. After Fnord's done freaking out, we'll both notice each were blanks and have a big laugh. Afterwards, I'd challenge Fnord to a HU 5 card stud match becuase it's a game that is impossible to lose.
-'rilla
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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StinkyBeaver
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Denmark
Posts: 275
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Have anyone inhere ever had a hand that would meet th BB requirments. Thinkin of it getting quad 8's or higer beat sounds pretty damn impossible..?
I've never had my quads beaten.
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thenonsequitur
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Location: Location
Posts: 637
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by StinkyBeaver
Have anyone inhere ever had a hand that would meet th BB requirments. Thinkin of it getting quad 8's or higer beat sounds pretty damn impossible..?
I've never had my quads beaten.
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I once had AA on a flop of A88. Opponent check-called the flop. Turn was a blank, and he check-called again. River was an A. I didn't know it at the time but I pulled a royal suckout cause he had 88. Anyway, he check-raised the river, and I re-raised, and he re-re-raised, etc...This was at interpoker ($2/$4) with no betting cap HU, and we raised back and forth until eventually I got him all in for about $200 (a $400 pot). At first I put him on eights full, but somewhere along the way it occurred to me that he must have quad eights. No way he'd be betting that far without an A or 88--and I had all the aces. I think he put me on aces full the whole way.
Unfortunately, the minimum hand to win the bad beat jackpot at interpoker was quad tens or quad jacks--I don't remember which. Oh so close. At least I won a huge pot.
Also, the first royal flush I ever got was right after I tried my hand at 5/10 for the first time, and it beat aces full of kings. Again, it didn't qualify for a bad beat jackpot, but it was still a huge pot (in terms of money, it was the biggest limit pot I've ever won--in terms of BB the hand above was the biggest). This was early in my poker playing career and I had no business playing at 5/10 (I was under-rolled and under-skilled), but I didn't know any better. Shortly after winning that huge pot, I started losing small pot after small pot and eventually got the sense that I was the table sucker (and I'm sure I was) and moved back down limits.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by outphase
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Room
Quote:
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Originally Posted by sinky
Don't spin! Why ? "Adjacent" is the key word. If you don't spin the 2nd bullet is out of play.
4 out of 6 chance you survive if you spin
3 out of 4 chance you survive if you don't
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X=Bullett
O=Blank
Chamber arrangement - OOXOOX
When Fnord pulls a blank, hes either at position 1, 2, 4, or 5. Therefore there are 2 possible scenarios left:
1) X then O, or
2) O then X
Your odds would be 1-to-1 once you knew Fnord pulled a blank.
By spinning again, you get the original odds of 2-to-1. |
This is correct. It's like the Monty Hall problem. |
But this problem is not the one Fnord presented. chambers 3 and 6 are not adjacent to each other. |
It's actually off on the math because it's 3-2 after one click and 4-2 before so you want to spin, but it's almost right.
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thenonsequitur
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Location: Location
Posts: 637
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
We play russian roulette.
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Fold preflop.
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Tim Vecchioni
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Maryland US
Posts: 327
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i woulda hit this once on party when it was like $210k..had 6/5 spades limped on the button.. saw a flop of j/j/7 only spade was the 7..it was 3 bet to me so i fold...one guy had 7/7 which didnt matter as far as the jackpot...one had j/j which woulda mattered and i had the nuts by the river...which was a turn of the 3 of spades and then i woulda hit the gut shot strait flush draw with the 4 of spades...didnt even notice it til i saw how big the pot was and i swore i had 2 spades...so i checked and i almost cried...lol and it was a bad beat table too...this was like a year ago.
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back looking to make some moolah
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A'aag
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Straight
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Loyal son of Rochester
Posts: 172
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by StinkyBeaver
Have anyone inhere ever had a hand that would meet th BB requirments.
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Yup. But not at party.
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Nehmer
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Decatur, IL
Posts: 666
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by StinkyBeaver
Have anyone inhere ever had a hand that would meet th BB requirments. Thinkin of it getting quad 8's or higer beat sounds pretty damn impossible..?
I've never had my quads beaten.
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I hit the bad beat jackpot at Interpoker. Flopped quad kings lost to a king high straight flush....It was at an Omaha table though, so I don't know if that really counts(the $350 sure counted though, especially since this was when I still played 1/2  )
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adiamant
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Mass.
Posts: 64
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Quote:
But this problem is not the one Fnord presented. chambers 3 and 6 are not adjacent to each other.
It's actually off on the math because it's 3-2 after one click and 4-2 before so you want to spin, but it's almost right.
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iopq, your bullets are opposing, not adjacent. Fnord's problem has the following arrangement:
OOOOXX
Then the 4/6 if you spin, 3/4 if not is the correct answer.
As Fnord's hit an empty chamber, the current hammer position is either 1,2,3 or 4. Only one of those (4) will result in a shot, all the others will hit an empty chamber, hence the 3/4 chance if you don't spin.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by adiamant
Quote:
But this problem is not the one Fnord presented. chambers 3 and 6 are not adjacent to each other.
It's actually off on the math because it's 3-2 after one click and 4-2 before so you want to spin, but it's almost right.
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iopq, your bullets are opposing, not adjacent. Fnord's problem has the following arrangement:
OOOOXX
Then the 4/6 if you spin, 3/4 if not is the correct answer.
As Fnord's hit an empty chamber, the current hammer position is either 1,2,3 or 4. Only one of those (4) will result in a shot, all the others will hit an empty chamber, hence the 3/4 chance if you don't spin. |
Didn't read the adjacent part. That makes the problem way too easy.
Mine was completely random distribution - put in a bullet, spin, put in another one.
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thenonsequitur
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Location: Location
Posts: 637
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Mine was completely random distribution - put in a bullet, spin, put in another one.
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Yours didn't account for a random distribution either. Your's were opposing:
OOXOOX.
For a random distribution, you have to account for each possible distribution, the chance of each, and figure out the probabilities from there. Here are the possible arrangements:
Six combinations of adjacent (one-away) bullets:
XXOOOO OXXOOO OOXXOO OOOXXO OOOOXX XOOOOX
Six combinations of two-away:
XOXOOO OXOXOO OOXOXO OOOXOX XOOOXO OXOOOX
Three combinations of opposing (three-away) bullets:
XOOXOO OXOOXO OOXOOX
For adjecent bullets: OOOOXX
Fnord hit an O, so you are at one of these positions: 2,3,4,5. 3/4 of these are safe (2,3,4).
For two-away bullets: OOOXOX
You are at one of: 2,3,4,6. 2/4 of these are safe (2,3).
For opposing bullets: OOXOOX
You are at one of: 2,3,5,6. 2/4 of these are safe (2,5).
Add it all up:
(6/15)*(3/4) + (6/15)*(2/4) + (3/15)*(2/4) = 3/5
Given a random distribution of bullets, not spinning the chamber after Fnord pulls the trigger and lives gives you a 3/5 chance of surviving.
Spinning the chamber gives you a 4/6=2/3 chance of surviving.
2/3 > 3/5. So spin the chamber if the distribution is random.
And BTW, I still vote to fold preflop in any case (specific distribution or random distribution). Don't get involved in this pot and you live 100% of the time (unless there are other situational factors I am not aware of).
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R3N3G4D3
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 16
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Well, the point is to not get shot, just like in poker the point is to win the pot. Folding is like admitting that you will not win. So folding here automatically gets you shot.
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Shark Bait
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 481
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If someone asked me that on an interview I would say I'd just shoot them. Why can't they ask easy things...like how to solve a rubiks cube.
Tell me about a time when...
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<a500lbgorilla> Limit is poker with training wheels!
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thenonsequitur
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Mine was completely random distribution - put in a bullet, spin, put in another one.
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Yours didn't account for a random distribution either. Your's were opposing:
OOXOOX.
For a random distribution, you have to account for each possible distribution, the chance of each, and figure out the probabilities from there. Here are the possible arrangements:
Six combinations of adjacent (one-away) bullets:
XXOOOO OXXOOO OOXXOO OOOXXO OOOOXX XOOOOX
Six combinations of two-away:
XOXOOO OXOXOO OOXOXO OOOXOX XOOOXO OXOOOX
Three combinations of opposing (three-away) bullets:
XOOXOO OXOOXO OOXOOX
For adjecent bullets: OOOOXX
Fnord hit an O, so you are at one of these positions: 2,3,4,5. 3/4 of these are safe (2,3,4).
For two-away bullets: OOOXOX
You are at one of: 2,3,4,6. 2/4 of these are safe (2,3).
For opposing bullets: OOXOOX
You are at one of: 2,3,5,6. 2/4 of these are safe (2,5).
Add it all up:
(6/15)*(3/4) + (6/15)*(2/4) + (3/15)*(2/4) = 3/5
Given a random distribution of bullets, not spinning the chamber after Fnord pulls the trigger and lives gives you a 3/5 chance of surviving.
Spinning the chamber gives you a 4/6=2/3 chance of surviving.
2/3 > 3/5. So spin the chamber if the distribution is random.
And BTW, I still vote to fold preflop in any case (specific distribution or random distribution). Don't get involved in this pot and you live 100% of the time (unless there are other situational factors I am not aware of). |
That's what I got! 3-2 in ODDS is equivalent 3/5 in probability.
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thenonsequitur
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Location: Location
Posts: 637
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
That's what I got! 3-2 in ODDS is equivalent 3/5 in probability.
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Sorry, I was looking at sinky's post, which you quoted, and somehow thinking it was your post.
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