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ellisd
Old 02-19-2006, 08:48 PM     Post subject: Bad Run #1 (permalink)  

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ellisd
Hey guys,

After playing some 250 odd hours of .5/1 hold 'em in the micro limits I managed a nice 1.00BB/hr. Not too good, but not too shaby for my first 250 hours I think it was between 15 - 20k hands. I built my bankroll up from $200 -$ 1000, so I decided to test out the competition at the 1/2 low limit tables, but do so on the weekend, when the opponents are not nearly as tough. Big mistake.

I managed to dump 50BB+ in my first hours, and then 25BB more on my next. I do not consider myself a sub-par player (I have read, Theory of Poker, Winning Low Limit Poker, and Small Stakes Hold'em.) I have heard so much about the long run, but one has to wonder when so much money is lost in such a short time. I would attribute it to bad beats, winning small pots with big hands, and losing big pots with second best, however, I do not have the experience to make an accurate judgement.

In the book Zen and the Art of Poker it is said the long run is longer than you think. Although, in the hands I played this weekend I was unsure of my play. Here are some histories:

ANTES/BLINDS

A posts blind ($0.50)
B posts blind ($1)

PRE-FLOP

C folds
Villian calls $1
D calls $1
E folds
F folds
G folds
Hero bets $2 [AS, 9S]
H folds
I folds
J folds
VIllaian calls $1
A calls $1

FLOP [board cards 10S,JC,7S ]

Villian checks
A checks
Hero bets $1 - Equity
Villian calls $1 - Overcard?
A calls $1

TURN [board cards 10S,JC,7S,AD ]

Villian bets $2 --Ace? Two Pair? At this time I should have put the flop and preflop together with a possible hands. If I had done that, I could have avoided the extra bet on the river.
A folds
Hero calls $2 --Draw

RIVER [board cards 10S,JC,7S,AD,8C ]

Villian bets $2
Hero bets $4
bolanos85 bets $4
Maletor bets $4 --This was a bad idea.
bolanos85 calls $2

My tracking software says I am a tight-aggresive/neutral player.
I believe, however, I am playing too tight. The 1/2 tables are usually 30-40% pre-flop. I use Sklansky's pre-flop guidelines as building blocks.
My VP$IP is only 17.0%!
W$SD is ~55%

Should I retreat back to .5/1? What's an average standard deviation/hr or /win rate? Any other suggestions?

Edit: I feel I am losing a lot of money in the blinds. What is a good strategy for play in the blinds, defending them, and stealing them?
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euphoricism
Old 02-19-2006, 08:54 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I'm not entirely sure that I'm reading it right, but I raise that turn like 99.9999% percent of the time. You have top pair, the nut flush draw, and a gutshot straight draw. Pump. Pump. Pump.

And assuming I'm reading this river correctly, the river is going to play differently there, but you definitely bet it, and definitely three-bet it. You've hit the gutshot, you're only behind Q9 - not exactly something you should worry about. If it happened, that sucks, but theres not a whole lot else you can do.
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ellisd
Old 02-19-2006, 09:10 PM #3 (permalink)  

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ellisd
He showed down a QKo.
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euphoricism
Old 02-19-2006, 10:07 PM #4 (permalink)  
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ah yeah, guess KQ does it for him too.
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euphoricism
Old 02-19-2006, 10:08 PM #5 (permalink)  
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By the way, a 17% VPIP is nearly perfect for the 1/2 full ring game. And 55% W$@SD is f'n great. You're doin fine.
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thenonsequitur
Old 02-19-2006, 10:41 PM     Post subject: Re: Bad Run #6 (permalink)  
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I agree with all of what euphoricism said. You sound pretty on top of your game, so I'm guessing you are mostly experiencing a bad run. You might be playing too weak because of recent bad beats, so make sure you are not doing this. If you think that might be happening, dropping down to .5/1 just to regain some confidence is not a bad idea. But if you feel that your aggression factor has not dropped, and can otherwise avoid letting the bad run adversely affect your play, then I would recommend sticking to 1/2 for now. Also, post some more hands that you are unsure about.
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ellisd
Old 02-19-2006, 11:19 PM #7 (permalink)  

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ellisd
Thanks for the confidence guys. I'll try and find some more hand histories when I get the time. Too bad the hand converter does not work for HoldemPoker.

I attribute most of my success to Poker Academy Pro. It's really a great tool for learning. The literature is equally important though, as one would not know when to raise for a free card; and, without experience knowing when to do so is very complicated.
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ellisd
Old 02-20-2006, 03:41 AM #8 (permalink)  

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ellisd
Sorry for the choppy format, but that's the best I can do.
Hero is TheGrinch
Poker Academy Pro #9053
Limit Texas Holdem ($0.5/$1)
Table Full Ring Standard
February 19, 2006 - 22:16:19 (EST)

1} TheGrinch $43.00 Qd Ah
2) Anders $59.00 2c Jd
3) Crusoe $30.00 Th 4c
4) Doyle $56.75 4h 7s
5) Erasmus * $45.00 As Qs
6) Hooke $50.00 6h Js
7) Sanja $71.50 7c 7h
8) Saxum $63.00 5s 4s
9) Maxine $23.75 8s 8d
10) Alexis $58.00 6s 2s

Hooke posts small blind $0.25
Sanja posts big blind $0.50
Saxum folds
Maxine calls $0.50
Alexis folds
TheGrinch raises $0.50
Anders folds
Crusoe folds
Doyle folds
Erasmus calls $1
Hooke folds
Sanja raises $0.50
Maxine calls $1
TheGrinch calls $0.50
Erasmus calls $0.50

FLOP: 9h Qh 6d
Sanja checks
Maxine checks
TheGrinch bets $0.50
Erasmus raises $0.50
Sanja folds
Maxine calls $1
TheGrinch raises $0.50
Erasmus calls $0.50
Maxine calls $0.50

TURN: 9h Qh 6d 8h
Maxine bets $1 - That's bad
TheGrinch calls $1 - Call?
Erasmus raises $1
Maxine calls $1
TheGrinch calls $1

RIVER: 9h Qh 6d 8h Jc
Maxine checks
TheGrinch checks
Erasmus bets $1
Maxine calls $1
TheGrinch calls $1
Erasmus shows As Qs
Maxine shows 8s 8d
TheGrinch mucks

Maxine wins $19.75 with Three of a Kind, Eights

I had terrible position here.

Afterthought: I am becoming more consistent at reading hands. Should I fold more on instinct?
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euphoricism
Old 02-20-2006, 12:37 PM #9 (permalink)  
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wow maxine sucks at poker.

you played it fine again, no way im folding to a donkbet there.
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ellisd
Old 02-20-2006, 03:17 PM #10 (permalink)  

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ellisd
When I bank another 250 hours at 1/2 limit I'll post the results.

The thing with bad beats is the paradox they create. You want them to call with a worse hand, but at the same time when they beat you it's very unfortunate.

I will reread my notes and start playing again when I feel I can play my 'A' game.
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euphoricism
Old 02-20-2006, 03:23 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Thats why some of us like to think there's no such thing as a bad beat. We want those bastards calling down their two and three outters every time, because we know they miss a lot more often than they hit.
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