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| Chopper |
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assuming we are talking equity, this, technically, is a -EV bet, right? PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver) Preflop: Hero is BB with 6  , 4 . 2 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, Hero checks. Flop: (2.40 SB) 2 , 5, 7 (2 players)Hero bets, CO folds. Final Pot: 1.70 BB i bet my draw to build a pot, but its a bad bet HU, yes? i need to have a >50% edge to bet? and i only have a 32% chance to win by the river? do i have that correct? i understand it is really a semi-bluff, but purely by the numbers its bad? |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece! 
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Play for FREE and practice your game at...Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting! | ||||
| NWNewell |
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But your fold equity from betting out is your best move. Even better than c/f'ing. If he only folds 15% of the time, you win 2bs = +0.3sb EV. And the 85% of the time you are called, you still have 17% chance to hit on the turn, with your pot odds being 3:1 if he calls. This yields [(3sb)(17%) - (1sb)(83%)]*85% = -0.272sb EV Combining these two outcomes gives you a +0.028sb EV. So you are right, it's a bad bet to build the pot. But overall, a good play. |
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My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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| KoRnholio |
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| Remember that 6's and 4's may also be outs since most of the time this limper will have two higher unpaired cards like Q-10. | |||
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Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
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| NWNewell |
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Quote:
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My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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| Chopper |
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i didnt even want to mess around with the 6 or 4. those are too vulnerable to expect to hold up. by the book, i guess you can count them, but my "read" has to assume overcards to mine (mine are just too low). and when i hit my pair, i have no idea which card pairs his. so, i went with the str8 only. and figured on a low board like that, in a limped HU pot, i could have him with any bet, unless he paired. in which case, i give up the hand unless i hit my str8 on the turn, b/c when i check the turn he most likely bets and destroys my odds to take it any further. if i hit my 4 on the turn, do i bet again? i may, as a semi-bluff again, but isnt that throwing good money after bad if he called my flop bet? |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| Jibalob |
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| NWNewell |
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 But if you play enough and think about situations that come up, over time you will be to recognize these siutations. And play according to the situation, with pre-conceved decisions based on the math that you worked out from reviewing a similar HH in the past. For example: In this situation the CO could be open raising with a ton of hands (but probably mostly containing high cards). And a resonable opponent can assume I could be calling from the BB with a very wide range of hands with 3.5:1 preflop odds and potentially protecting my blinds. So, with that flop I know it probably didn't hit his hand. And he knows that it is possible that it hit my hand. So, he will probably fold to a lead out bet a resonable amount of the time, maybe 10-30% (but it all depends on the player). I already know that in a heads up raised pot I only need my opponent to fold 20% of the time to make it worthwhile. (number to know for this situations and cbets). And I know that any outs I have only makes things better for me. The more outs I have, the less often my opponent has to fold. So if I have a lot of outs like with a straight draw or flush draw, I've got great equity to bet out or cbet. I make lots of decisions based on what I've already figured out and decided ahead of time about this type of sitiuation. I'll I really do here is think about how tight or aggressive my opponent is post flop. Am I going to get 3-bet often? Is this guy loose post flop? If the answers are "no", then I'm betting out in this spot. I can't do the math at the table either. I was just running through the math to show why betting out in this spot is can be correct instead of just saying so. |
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My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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| Chopper |
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newell, thank you for the reasoning. that last thought process helped a lot. i am not there yet, as to knowing the situation as described, but i do like the thought behind. i assume if opponent is loose post flop, you need to hit the flop a bit harder to bet out? or if you are likely to get 3bet, as well. but, can you do this at lower stakes...with the call stations so plentiful? or do you need to be even more selective about WHO you bet into? i think i just answered my own question. thx again. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| Chopper |
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once more. i realize LHE is MUCH more mathematical than its NL counterpart. therefore, i am more naturally sooooted for a NL game. i dont like to sit and make my decisions on "the math." but, i do like what LHE "forces" me to think about. and the situational thinking i can bring back to my NL game. no doubt my "instincts" and "reads" have improved greatly because of some of the advice and experience i have received from playing 20kish hands of LHE. i am marginally profitable when it comes to limit, but since i have tried to conquer the limit side, my NL win rate has more than doubled over 30k+ hands. i have to credit some of this to the previously mentioned advice/experience. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| NWNewell |
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You are exactly right, you do need to consider your opponent. In this spot if he is a callingstation, or pretty aggressive and would probably c-bet, then I don't think there is enough value in betting out. I would probably just c/c and hope to extract addition value with a c/r or something when I hit. But I think there are a lot of players, even at 0.25/0.50, that will fold 20% of the time. But you do have to be more aware and selective because of the looser players at these stakes. |
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My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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| Chopper |
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newell, i noticed that there IS a difference between .10/.20 and .25/.50 in terms of skill level. the latter are a bit more selective, not in starting hands, but in how far they take them post flop. as a habit, i try to avoid marginal situations, as i dont think i need to become great here just yet. there are just too many obviously dominting situations where these donkeys will take TPNK or 2nd pair WAY too far. i feel better served learning to extract value out of my strong hands...and learning when those are up against monsters...for now. as a result, i generally make up my mind before the turn betting as to whether or not, i want to take the hand farther. my question is: Is there a holding such as KQ, or AT, that you would typically check/call to the river without pairing? i wonder if there is value in "chasing" TP for small pots? i seriously doubt it, especially HU. but with the hands these guys tend to play, at these lower stakes, i cant help but wonder if high card has a bit of power? i guess i see 5 cards so often, as a whole in limit, that this is not the case because with all those cards, and people chasing them, out there...there will usually be a pair. i wonder if there are holdings that you would be "in" the hand with untill the end other than AA, or an overpair? ...given the fact these guys are not necessarily throwing away non-paired hands on dryish boards...when they should be. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| NWNewell |
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In general, trying to find spots to showdown Ace High (or King High) is usually a pretty marginal at best play. And as you stated, I also usually try to avoid marginal situations especially on later streets. If we were in the higher limits like 10/20 or so, we may need to better identify when these marginal situations are tilting towards +EV to turn a good profit. But at lower stakes, it is usually not necessary. You can give it a shot once in a while if you feel you have a read just for practice. But I general I usually avoid it. But at 6max games it can be effective against the right type of player. Often times you will find players that are hyper aggressive and will try to run over you and continue to bet the turn and river with nothing. against those players it can be profitable to show down your Ace High hand, although more volatile too. With position you can also try some lines to get to showdown more cheaply and try to induce a bluff from a weaker hand. For example, if you PFR with AQ and are heads up on the flop. Flop comes something like J83. If it's checked to you, you should cbet. If you are called, you can check behind on the turn (take your free card that your flop earned you). If you miss, you might still induce a bluff on the river from an aggressive opponent who reads you as weak and tries to take the pot. If you feel that you are up against this type of player, and the board is not too scary, you should call. Remember, he only has be be bluffing 20% of the time in order to make this a correct river call. You'll have to go with your read on the player. If you are out of position or only have King high, I usually don't try to show it down. But in position with Ace High, I will on occasion against loose/aggressive players. I rarely do this with only Ace, but often pull this like with second or third pair. I''ll see a missed straight or flush draw bluff at the pot relatively often. At least that is my take. Hopefully someone a little more proficient than me at 6max postflop reading/play will chime in. |
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My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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| Chopper |
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i, too, am hoping that these thoughts of ours will "induce" a more experienced player to "take a stab" at our conversation. granted there are not many in the FTR community that play limit. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| Stagemn |
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The funny thing is limit offers (at least to me) a sense of learning with minimal variances. A good example is this past Sunday I had a bad streak for the day. I mean crap like people calling me down when I have AQ on a Q73 rainbow board, to where they only 2nd pair thier Q4 on the river. I recovered it all back yesterday while taking the day off Monday. But had I been playing NL, I would've likely lost 5x as much. Playing NL or even PL gave me way too much variance to handle that I moved to Limit and found not only my game, but a profitable one as well. I think everyone new to poker should start on Limit then move up to the bigger pot potential games. But it makes me laugh to see noobs betting Ace high OOP on the river only to either be called by a worse donk with K high or someone with any pair or better. With hands like AT or KQ... I look at who I'm playing. Passive/Calling Stations I'll check-fold/call pending pot odds. Aggressives... will it varies on the reads mostly. Seen him bluff at least twice recently. I'll call him if I got the odds to draw out on him. Right now I'm playing the 0.25/0.50 level and I think I'm doing rather well. Had it not been my bad day, I would still be averaging my near recent constant streak of @ 5-15 BB/100 Hands (yes... I am averging nearly that high recently on a daily basis the past couple weeks). I'm hoping to move to the 0.50/$1 level here within the next couple weeks when my BR allows me to play at the level. |
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| bigspenda73 |
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Guys, you have one of the most respected limit players on this site (NWNewell) all over this thread. I never saw this thread before, your play is not bad. As for limit giving you less variance, I don't think you've played it enough. It's another debate all together but limit has MORE variance than NL due to it's smaller edges and the fact that they come up much more than in NL. I was 5-6 tabling 6max limit holdem earlier this year/end of last year and that is swingy as hell. A 50bb swing was normal, 100bb swing was not a rare occurrence and I had a few seperate 150bb+ swings in both directions in a session. As for the rest of us not chiming in it's probably b/c we're all a little soured from limit at the moment. The game at the truly profitable levels has dried up leading us to find different games to play. Most have turned to NL, some 5cd, myself and others to Omaha. I still try to frequent this forum but I can tell my advice isn't that great which leads me to believe I truly never learned to play this game all that well. FWIW, I still play 1/2 or 2/4 6max LHE every once in a while if I just want to try to make some money on auto-pilot and clear some bonus/rb. My advice to you guys learning the game or trying to improve is to read all the literature out there on this game. There are so many good articles/books around that you are serving yourself a great disadvantage if you don't pick some of them up. Work on the math of the game. Take NWNewell as an example. You can tell he isn't just doing the math, he's understanding it and how it works situationally. That's what limit is, it's as science, not an art. Knowing that hitting a flush with 1 card to come is a 4:1 shot doesn't do you any good if you don't understand how that works in the context of a hand. Read SSLHE, read King Yao's book, read theory of poker, and anything else. Learn how poker works and you'll be better off for it. |
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| Chopper |
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stageman, i agree with you. its a little mistated, however, that its "variance" in the true sense of the word. i am constantly befuddled by how i can lose 4 marginal hands, win one decent one, and repair the damage so quickly. on three to four tables, i feel like i am playing poorly, taking bad beats, being drawn out upon, etc...and i look at my numbers for the day, and i am only off $5. and, there's nothing quite like a limit heater!! you can really stockpile the monies. spenda, i knew he was well respected, but if HE is asking for more experience to chime in, i cant help but wonder where some others are that are on his level to bump the debate to the next level. thats where we will all benefit. i feel like i ask some intelligent questions of him, but he answers well enough for me, that i am racking my brain to find another question to ask. if someone else were in here, to debate him, we could all really learn more. as for the swings, i have 3-4 different times now started off incredibly hot. gotten a bit arrogant, and evened out. have had 10k hand heaters and 10k hand coolers. very frustrating to watch all that and see you are about even. which is why if you want to make money from limit, you need to be playing higher...and with rakeback. when you "kill the game" for 3 BBs/100 over 35k hands, you wish you were playing 10/20. i see where they measure in BB/hr now. easier to calculate income. but i digress. if you saw a graph of limit, stageman, you would see HUGE, steady ups followed by HUGE, steady downs. and the graph would have to be very long to see the overall trend. i think that euph said it best when he doubts anyone can beat any level of limit for more than 2BB/100 over a large enough sample. i assume 250k hands would suffice. thank you guys for continuing to check the limit forum. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| NWNewell |
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Thanks for the props, bigsplenda. But I'll admit that I'm weaker at SH than FR, and some of the post flop play on later streets and blind defense/steal that goes with it. I know I still have a lot to learn about SH and general plays I make that need improved/tweaked, and even in FR for that matter, before I consider myself an expert. I know there are players on this site that are better at some of those aspects 6max than I am, euphor, jeffelipse, & pokerfanatic for example. Even you may be just as good if not better at some of the SH aspects than I am. It is nice for me, as well as new limit players, to here from other experienced players to ensure I'm thinking about things correctly, or point out other options, or give me another direction to think about. But with that said, bigsplenda is right. A lot of the good limit players are off discussing things in the NL, and other, forums trying to learn the game just like you (and I'll probably follow suit and try to learn some NL once I get my BR healthy again). They don't play limit much anymore, so they are round less frequently. But some of them usually offer up good advice here and there. Just need to be patient. And as to the variance debate, I think euphor said it best... "NL hurts more, less often. Limit hurts less, but OFTEN!!" |
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My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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| bigspenda73 |
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LOL, I went home for lunch today and was going to make a 30 minute Omaha video but there were only 3 tables running and they were full. There were two 1/2 6max LHE tables open and I decided to make a 30 minutes video. +45BBs in 130 hands, talk about running hot. Just goes to show what variance and cards can do in this game. I think I played OK and the video will be posted when the competition deadline ends tomorrow. I'd love to get some feedback although I rarely play the game anymore but it is fun. Im not sure how much you guys will learn from me running well except I think I had a couple good value bets in spots where newer more passive players to the game would have taken free cards or a cheap showdowns. |
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| Chopper |
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nothing like a limit heater...nothing. your cards in this game get paid off like no other, imo. in NL, they still seem to fold to bigger bets. in limit, you can only make seemingly small bets, and string them along much easier. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| NWNewell |
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Quote:
Plus at lower limits, the rake really hurts the winrate of someone that is only marginally better than their competition. In NL the rake isn't as big of a factor. Don't get me wrong, I love limit and feel a good player will always be able to exploit his opponents and turn a profit. But relatively speaking, the edges are smaller in limit. That's why they refer to Limit as a GRIND! It definitely can be!! |
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My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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| Chopper |
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| agreed. just nothing like the limit heater. | |||
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| euphoricism |
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Didnt see this thread either. Your play is fine, Newells advice is spot on as usual, and no, there is nothing like a limit heater but there is nothing like a limit cooler-streak either. As for the profitability of LHE, as spenda said the rake is such a killer. I dropped $220 today at 3/6, on an absolutely awful run of cards at 3/6 (was actually double that for a while, yuck!). But I paid over $110 in rake, almost exactly HALF. Thankfully I get approximately 30% of that back, which will cut it to about 1/3rd. Still, its painful to see that even though the 80/30 on my right went busto -- he went busto to the house, not the players. The biggest difference in profitability between NL and LHE is the rake. If NL rakes werent capped at $x, or atleast were capped at a much higher $y, youd still see plenty of 1 and 2bb/100 winrates as standard. But because pot sizes get so large in NL in relation to the blinds, and rake is capped, theres less rake taken from them. Thats one of the major reasons for the winrate difference, along with a larger edge between an expert and a novice. Dont misunderstand, I'm not advocating the house taking more money from NL players, I'm advocating the house taking LESS money from LHE players. Granted, they probably cant do the latter without making it up from the former - but I think hey at least that would be more fair to us. |
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<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
Directions to join the #flopturnriver Internet Relay Chat - Come chat with us!
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| Chopper |
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i just wish stars would start a rakeback program. i cant seem to get any money into anywhere else right now w/o some serious hoop-jumping. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| NWNewell |
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Quote:
JK... ...Hope variance starts tilting back your way soon! GL!
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My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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| euphoricism |
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| ZZZZZINNNGGGG! | |||
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<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
Directions to join the #flopturnriver Internet Relay Chat - Come chat with us!
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| euphoricism |
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Quote:
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<Staxalax> Honestly, #flopturnriver is the one thing that has improved my game the most.
Directions to join the #flopturnriver Internet Relay Chat - Come chat with us!
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| Chopper |
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yeah, dont see that one happening anytime soon. seen my HH posts lately? how long would it take a .25/.50 player to get to supernova? about 250k hands in a month? surely, that would get me a divorce...lol. but then again, i couldnt pay the alimony/child support on the massive income quarter/fittycent pays at my .4 BB/100 rate currently. lol. i am just being a smartass here. it is good to know that it's possible, tho. oh, and one hell of a ZZZing on euph, newell. nh, sir. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| NWNewell |
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He knows I have much respect for him and his game/advice. |
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My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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| Chopper |
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me too, but that doesnt mean we cant take a shot at him once in awhile, right?
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| Ragnar4 |
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Just saw this thread for the first time. As for the hand "Very rarely is it ever correct to chase a straight heads up".--John Vorhaus --Nuff said. As for aggressively betting and raising a straight. The math you include in your calculations have to include on the percent chance your opponent will fold, and the aggregate chance of his folding needs to add up to greater than 50% equity in the pot. That math can not be demonstrated to you, it's up to your belief of the villians likelyhood to fold. As for the way you played it. Why not? If your opponnet calls, you give up. Maybe taking a few seconds before your checking to your opponent will make him wonder if you're going to check/raise and he'll check behind giving you a free turn. If he raises back You have odds to peel and get into it on the turn if you hit, and get away if you miss. Here's the trick: Sure you're only 32% to have the best hand by the river. Aggression masks the fact that you have a stinker of a hand. If your opponent commits to the river in check/call mode though, realize it and shut down. What I'm trying to say here, is that Heads up is not a situation in which you calculate your odds and try to get to showdown. It's a war, in which raise, re-raise, and checkraise to try to take down the pot. You want your opponent to back down, and you're willing to kick, stab, and shoot your opponent in order to win that pot. As long as you have the intestinal fortitude for it. |
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
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| Chopper |
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thanks rag, i like this move a lot. the semi-bluff HU in a limped pot. it wins me a lot of missed flops and small pots. granted, i most always give up if called. it would be stupid to chase it into the more expensive rounds. however, tossing a sb into a HU pot, imo, aint bad to do about 50% of the time. it only has to work more than 50% to show profit, providing i dont take things any farther. and, no i dont have the fortitude to play 64o like the absolute nuts...and when i "act" like it, my opponent better not wake up with bottom pair...and feel good about it. something betting into donkeys usually discovers very expensively.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| NWNewell |
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He does not need to fold 50% of the time to make this lead bet correct. Your bet has 2:1 pot odds. 2sb in the pot and costs you 1sb. It only has to work 33% of the time. And if he doesn't fold, you have a high likely hood of being bailed out by the turn card. So, that number comes down even farther. |
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My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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| Chopper |
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thx. i was just spit-balling off the top of my head, and when i do that, i tend to go way conservative with my calcs. |
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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| Ragnar4 |
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Thanks NwN. I wasn't thinking about the fact that you're spending one bet to make 2. I also used the term folding in the hand. When I meant the Aggregate chances of his fold, and your improvement = greater than 50%... But apparently it's 33%. So You're gonna hit your turn card 16.8% of the time, and as long as he fold right around 16.% of the time in your mind (1 out of 6) Go right on ahead and bet. Seems like it's pretty safe to lay a bet here against everyone but a calling station. It also occurs to me that I should have read the entire hand. Because if I'd have choked down your math the first time.... I wouldn't have proven (yet again) that I'm still a noob. lol. |
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
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| bigspenda73 |
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| Wow this thread has way too many posts in it for the amount of action in the hand. | |||
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| NWNewell |
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No worries, Ranger.... I still f@%$ up a on a daily basis!
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My "Operation Come Back" Thread: Interupted.
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| Latest Poker News | |
| KoRnholio |
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
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| According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... | |
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