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ATo blind defense vs TAgg

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Fnord

06-21-2005, 02:21 PM Post subject: ATo blind defense vs TAgg

#1 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Villian is TAgg, probably the second best player at the table.

PE has 7,120 hands, 20% VP$IP, 10% PFR, 24% Att to Steal.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is BB with T

, A

.
5 folds, Button raises, 1 fold, Fnord calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 7

, 3

(2 players)
Fnord checks, Button bets, Fnord raises, Button 3-bets, Fnord calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 4

(2 players)
Fnord checks, Button bets, Fnord calls.

River: (7.25 BB) A

(2 players)
Fnord checks...

Bet the river, right?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

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Element187

06-21-2005, 02:26 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Location: Orlando, FL

Posts: 802

i think your beat here, i'll check and call down the river.

if your going to call the turn with the possible flush, you might as well call the river, i dont know what card your expecting to come on the river to give you the win.

then again at this level you probably have a better idea of being beat then i do.

"Imagine how it would be to be at the top Making cash money, Go and tour all around the world, Tell stories about all the young girls." - The Prodigy - Girls

Nehmer

06-21-2005, 02:31 PM

#3 (permalink)

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I don't understand why you raise the flop and then call the turn. You say this guy is good, so he's gonna know you are full of crap when you raise a flop like that one. If you really don't think he has anything, raise the turn, otherwise I would probably fold because you are definately not getting the right odds on catching(especially true if you didnt raise the flop). I don't know...I usually like your plays, but this one just seems kinda bad to me. Anyway, I probably bet the river, but I don't like giving him the chance to raise me here.

Fnord

06-21-2005, 02:36 PM

#4 (permalink)

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I see no compelling reason to think that he either has more than one club nor that his hand improved on the flop. That flop missed both of us and we both know it.

Anyone dispute these ranges?

281,160 games 0.125 secs 2,249,280 games/sec

Board: 3h 3c 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 49.7902 % [ 00.44 00.06 ] { AsTd }
Hand 2: 50.2098 % [ 00.44 00.06 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }

12,232 games 0.005 secs 2,446,400 games/sec

Board: 3h 3c 7c 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 42.9856 % [ 00.40 00.03 ] { AsTd }
Hand 2: 57.0144 % [ 00.54 00.03 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }

edit: I should have added T9s, maybe T9o too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Element187

06-21-2005, 02:41 PM

#5 (permalink)

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he's probably thinking in his mind if you had something why not smooth call the flop and reraise him on the turn.

"Imagine how it would be to be at the top Making cash money, Go and tour all around the world, Tell stories about all the young girls." - The Prodigy - Girls

Fnord

06-21-2005, 02:42 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Element187

he's probably thinking in his mind if you had something why not smooth call the flop and reraise him on the turn.

Yup. Should I have run that line instead?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Nehmer

06-21-2005, 02:45 PM

#7 (permalink)

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I'm not giving him credit for having hit the flop and I'm not going to dispute your ranges of hands he might have, but I am going to say the flop raise looks VERY weak to me and probably to him too, so why make a raise that is going to get no respect if you don't have a hand? Now the turn doesn't help you at all, but does provide a decent shot at a bluff and you pass it up. I just think there are much better ways to have played the hand.

Fnord

06-21-2005, 02:46 PM

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My plan for smooth calling the pre-flop raise was both because he's a semi-tight stealer (although with a 10% PFR, I suspect this is more because he doesn't steal with total crap and might not like to SB steal) and I indended to check/raise any favorable flop. This looked like a pretty good flop for me...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Element187

06-21-2005, 02:57 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by Element187

he's probably thinking in his mind if you had something why not smooth call the flop and reraise him on the turn.

Yup. Should I have run that line instead?

if i woulda hit the flop with your hand A or a T i would play it like you did just so he would think im bs'ing and get more money out of him.

if im protecting my blinds and miss the flop, i wait until the turn to raise, i get more folds then running up against resistance.

if your calling the turn here, when you hit one of your overcards on the river, normally i will raise when i hit on the river.

what kind of hands is he turning over when he's stealing the blinds. some players have standards of what they steal with Ax or small pocket pairs.

"Imagine how it would be to be at the top Making cash money, Go and tour all around the world, Tell stories about all the young girls." - The Prodigy - Girls

koolmoe

06-21-2005, 05:11 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Call the flop, check-raise the turn...

I'd lead the river also.

Poker is freedom

Fnord

06-21-2005, 05:13 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

Call the flop, check-raise the turn...

Why? Also, are there any turn cards you won't check/raise. How would you play this pre-flop? Trying to understand the thinking here...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Nehmer

06-21-2005, 05:32 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Why? Also, are there any turn cards you won't check/raise. How would you play this pre-flop? Trying to understand the thinking here...

Personally, I am probably switching between 3-betting and just calling pre-flop depending on what read if any I have on my opponent in stealing situations(more heavily weighted to 3-betting). Assuming I just called, I am probably only raising the flop if I hit my Ace or ten, because my opponent is obviously in a more aggressive than usual situation and is likely to 3-bet me on the flop, which I definately don't want unless I have the goods. If I decide the flop is good for bluffing(like yours is), I'm going to do it on the turn. With that said, if the turn comes with a K, Q, or J, I'm probably just folding the turn instead of trying to steal the pot there.

koolmoe

06-21-2005, 06:09 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by koolmoe

Call the flop, check-raise the turn...

Why?

Overcards that miss are often looking for a reason to fold if they miss the turn. I don't mind showing down AT either, so it's OK if he calls. I'll always lead the river if he calls and fold to a raise. You're trying to get AK, AQ, AJ, 22, 55, 66 to fold here. None of those hands fold to a flop check/raise, and many will three bet you. BTW, calling the flop and check/raising the turn makes it borderline for a 6 outer to call, and a reasonable player will count fewer than 6 outs with overcards, especially if one of them is an A.

In all fairness, it's an alternate line I run about 1/3 of the time, though I do it more often on raggedy paired flops since they are more likely to have hit my hand than his, and they are very unlikely to have hit his, so it's relatively safe. My defense range is pretty wide, which allows me to represent a three. I also rarely raise a flush draw heads up on the flop, so I can bet the club as a scare card on the turn.

The key criteria for the opponent is that he has to be aggressive and willing to fold. I don't make this play against someone who shows down AK unimproved 100% of the time. Also, against an aggressive opponent who sees a lot of showdowns, I prefer calling down.

I should probably do an analysis of this play using my hand histories. I seem to have a feeling who it will work against (and when), but I can't quite put it into empirical terms.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Also, are there any turn cards you won't check/raise.

Yes. I wouldn't check/raise a non club K, Q, or J. Everything else I would. I'd call down unless opponent's AF is less than 1.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

How would you play this pre-flop?

Three bet some, call some. About 50/50 maybe. When I call, I often lead on a raggedy flop.

The important thing is to keep him guessing, unless he's incredibly predictable.

Poker is freedom

Fnord

06-21-2005, 06:43 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Villain had K

and MHIG.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

jmontis

06-21-2005, 09:35 PM

#15 (permalink)

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3 bet preflop (if he's a stealer), if he doesn't raise the flop he's full of shit
i'd lead the turn and river with that flop, flush doesn't scare me HU.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

MHIG.

mhig?

Zinnsoldaten

06-21-2005, 11:51 PM

#16 (permalink)

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Location: Sweden

Posts: 130

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmontis

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

MHIG.

mhig?

"My Hand Is Good"

What Shadows We Are, And What Shadows We Pursue

Room

06-22-2005, 01:50 AM

#17 (permalink)

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Posts: 197

By c/r this flop, what hands are you hoping to fold? Surley, AK-AT or a PP is not folding. Villan overplayed his hand here, but your c/r is giving hands such as his or other Kx, Qx, Jx hands a reason to fold. If you're willing to put 3 bets in, I'd prefer the lead-3bet line.

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ATo blind defense vs TAgg

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