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AQs TPTK head down on draw-rich board?

  
 
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 01-02-2008, 04:19 PM     Post subject: AQs TPTK head down on draw-rich board? #1 (permalink)  
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Hermann the Lombard
PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, Q.
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero raises, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 7, Q, 8 (5 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Button calls.

Turn: (6 BB) K (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (6 BB) 9 (2 players)
Hero...

Button has been 47/0/0.5 in a small sample, no relevant notes.

Once that diamond King falls, should I just keep my head down? Even check/call seems optimistic on the river.
Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
 
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pokerfanatic
Old 01-02-2008, 07:54 PM #2 (permalink)  
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i'm pretty much done with the hand once the Kd hits, i might consider calling against a select few opponents that will bet a pair because they know you would have bet a flush already. but in general i think c/f isn't too bad.
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

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arborman
Old 01-02-2008, 09:14 PM #3 (permalink)  
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If he had a flush he'd have bet the turn, unless he is ultra passive. If he is tricky he might be trying to induce a bluff on the river, but he is probably not that tricky. And if he had a King he would have bet the turn as well. I think he's got a middle pair and no flush, but is hoping you will let him showdown free.

It's a big enough pot to be worth a river bet/fold, IMO. He could easily have seen your turn check as a failed checkraise, but a river check is an invitation to bluff into you.

This hand is close to a 'Clarkmeister' theorem hand, in that you probably have the strongest non-flush hand - a value bluff. You lose this hand often, but get a fold or a win often enough to make a bet fold line worthwhile on the river - especially since he checked behind on the turn, which has me leaning to bet call..
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pokerfanatic
Old 01-02-2008, 11:38 PM #4 (permalink)  
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the guy is super passive 0.5 TAF... basically he's not betting anything unless it's the A, Q, maybe J maybe T but below that he will check behind and call a river bet closing the action... 56 calls the river, JT as well any diamond i don't see any reason to want to bet this river...

now as for calling a bet what on earth would a 0.5 TAF bet the river with you have beat? NOTHING? easy c/f IMO...
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
 
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arborman
Old 01-03-2008, 03:15 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfanatic
the guy is super passive 0.5 TAF... basically he's not betting anything unless it's the A, Q, maybe J maybe T but below that he will check behind and call a river bet closing the action... 56 calls the river, JT as well any diamond i don't see any reason to want to bet this river...

now as for calling a bet what on earth would a 0.5 TAF bet the river with you have beat? NOTHING? easy c/f IMO...
Good point.
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DrivingDog
Old 01-03-2008, 01:47 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Raise preflop with two big suited cards please.

against passive, just check and try to get to a cheap showdown. Fold to a bet - he's not betting anything that doesn't have you beat.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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pokerfanatic
Old 01-03-2008, 02:56 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Raise preflop with two big suited cards please.

against passive, just check and try to get to a cheap showdown. Fold to a bet - he's not betting anything that doesn't have you beat.
he did raise it pf?

Quote:
Preflop: Hero is SB with A , Q .
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero raises, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Button calls.
“Dream as if you’ll live forever. Live as if you’ll die today.” ~ James Dean ~

"Poker is a lot like sex, peoples perceived ability usually blinds the truth" ~ me ~

"God bless him. Got to bet big to win big! GAMB00L!!!" ~ Fnord
 
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DrivingDog
Old 01-03-2008, 04:28 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

he did raise it pf?
ah i missed that - good man HTL.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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Lance
Old 01-03-2008, 06:58 PM     Post subject: IMHO #9 (permalink)  
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I would bet on the river if I get reraised I'll just fold.
ur probably ahead unless he has the flush.

Anyway check/call the river isnt so bad as well
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 01-03-2008, 07:59 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Hermann the Lombard
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

he did raise it pf?
ah i missed that - good man HTL.
Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
 
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