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AQs capped PF

  
 
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 11-14-2007, 07:23 PM     Post subject: AQs capped PF #1 (permalink)  
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PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, A.
1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 caps, Hero calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 8, 4, 2 (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (10 BB) A (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, BB folds, MP1 folds.

River: (12 BB) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

Not very many hands, but villain was TAG at 18/13.6/5.5.

I don't know his range for capping PF but I figure I'm behind AA and AK and ahead of everything else. Comments?
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euphoricism
Old 11-14-2007, 07:28 PM #2 (permalink)  
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If you're check/calling this river, you might as well bet/fold it. He won't bet the river with KK but he might call it. If he raises youre definitely toast so you lose the same but have a *chance* of winning more.
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Jibalob
Old 11-14-2007, 09:22 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
If you're check/calling this river, you might as well bet/fold it. He won't bet the river with KK but he might call it. If he raises youre definitely toast so you lose the same but have a *chance* of winning more.
I prefer - raise the turn, fold to a 3-bet

Edit: nevermind, I just realised Hero is in the sb and also little chance of improving - totally misread that HH
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 11-15-2007, 12:03 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jibalob
I prefer - raise the turn, fold to a 3-bet
Edit: nevermind, I just realised Hero is in the sb and also little chance of improving - totally misread that HH
So what do you prefer...other than maybe a flop fold?
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KoRnholio
Old 11-15-2007, 12:42 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 Looks fine, although as some have said a bet-fold line on the river is good against most opponents. They will often check behind with a pair under aces, but will do a "wtf-call" if you donk bet it.

The flop you have to call even if all you have is the backdoor flush and straight draws because the pot is soo big already. I'd also give you 2-3 outs for your overcards, since you aren't sure if hitting an A or Q is a good or bad thing.
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dsaxton
Old 11-15-2007, 01:35 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Bet-folding the river is lame because you would never make this play with any other hand. This means it's easy for an opponent to play nearly perfectly against you (either make a lot of correct folds or low risk bluffs).
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pokerfanatic
Old 11-15-2007, 02:45 PM #7 (permalink)  
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bet/fold the river is not a line i would run... it would be an extreamly bad habit to get into especially when you get higher up and you have guys raise ATo (or something along those lines) on the river because they think your bet is weak... and frankly it is pretty damn weak to run that line, and it looks goofy, you going to play a set or 2p like that NO! coming from a LP-P then they probably did spike that 2 coming from a TA-A, it looks weird, almost like you think he doesn't have shit at all in which case you should raise the turn... given his hand ranges are AQs/o+, TT+

Code:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,584  games     0.031 secs    51,096  games/sec

Board: 8d 4h 2s Ah
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	65.720%  	57.39% 	08.33% 	           909 	      132.00   { AsQs }
Hand 1: 	34.280%  	25.95% 	08.33% 	           411 	      132.00   { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 11-15-2007, 04:31 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Hmm...sounds like if I raise the turn (and don't get 3-bet) I should take that bet/fold line having shown strength. It also sounds like if I see the same villain often I should mix up check/call and bet/fold.
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euphoricism
Old 11-15-2007, 04:48 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
Bet-folding the river is lame because you would never make this play with any other hand. This means it's easy for an opponent to play nearly perfectly against you (either make a lot of correct folds or low risk bluffs).
I c/c c/c donk quite often with *lots* of hands. Basically any time I think villain has missed but will continue to bet if I let him. If you "never make this play with any other hand", yes its certainly exploitable. However A) your opponent doesn't know that B) you *shouldnt* only do that with this type of hand, and C) its .10/.20
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euphoricism
Old 11-15-2007, 04:52 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hermann the Lombard
Hmm...sounds like if I raise the turn (and don't get 3-bet) I should take that bet/fold line having shown strength. It also sounds like if I see the same villain often I should mix up check/call and bet/fold.
I think check/raising the turn is silly. It allows villain to play perfectly against you -- he folds when he's beat and he 3bets you when you're beat. I don't think most opponents will call down with KK here -- though the .1/.2 stakes might cause many to just because.
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bigspenda73
Old 11-15-2007, 05:34 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 b/c>b/f on the end and neither are good plays, seriously how can you b/f in this pot?

Folding after the turn falls in criminal, so I just c/c twice.
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dsaxton
Old 11-15-2007, 06:49 PM #12 (permalink)  
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If he is aggressive / bad enough, check-raising the river may even be best.
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DrivingDog
Old 11-16-2007, 08:54 AM #13 (permalink)  
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The b/f line is interesting but dangerous as some people (like me) would cap preflop in position with AQ, and would raise a river donkbet with AQ (also like me). B/c seems a bit silly if he has AK, AA. I think it's just as likely villian will value bet KK when no-one has raised the turn A (I would) as will call a donkbet on the river, so I'd probably go with c/c.

Then again i have fun losing money lol.
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pokerfanatic
Old 11-16-2007, 01:35 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
The b/f line is interesting but dangerous as some people (like me) would cap preflop in position with AQ, and would raise a river donkbet with AQ (also like me). B/c seems a bit silly if he has AK, AA. I think it's just as likely villian will value bet KK when no-one has raised the turn A (I would) as will call a donkbet on the river, so I'd probably go with c/c.

Then again i have fun losing money lol.
it is 0.10/0.2 is the avg player at this level going to make a play like that... probably not...

Side Note:
so i can see where eupho might be coming from at serious micro levels where there isn't much thinking going on...

HOWEVER, i do feel that the c/c, c/c, b/f line works very rarely as a bluff... just too many people will call or raise that last bet... now if you are doing ti for value because you think your opponent will check the river or something and you might have a slight chance you are ahead maybe then you can run this line once and a great while... it's extremely situational and player based... also i feel that line is over used to try and slow down argo opponents, kinda silly to try and slow them down when the pot is already big and more then likely they will call any pair or bettor on the river anyways... it also stops them from firing off that 3td barrel on a bricked draw, of course I'm not sure how often people even fire a 3rd barrel as a bluff, however i think the line just has more negitive effects then positive...

I was trying to think of a generalized rule of when to use a line like this and against what kind of opponent... I feel that it would make since if your opponent tends to be overly passive to scare cards but at the same tiem you have to make them believe that you could possibly have hit that card on the river... given that most of the time extremely passive players post flop that actually fold are also passive preflop in other words typically they are TP-P players... TA-A will call a lot of hands and even raise some times against another Tagg, LP-P calls just about anything, but i don't think they would cap PF very often if at all... LA-P calls for sure, LA-A probably raises you a lot there... TA-N more then likely calls... TA-P probably calls sometimes, but this line might work aganst one of these depending on how passive they get... but you get my drift here i'd say the line works the best on TP-P and TA-P players depending on how passive they might get on the river and how willing they would be to check something like AJ on the river figureing they are out kicked or fold a hand like AK figiring you improved with the river card...

In this example, you 3bet PF, which means given that you have taggy stats, a 2 IS NOT IN YOUR RANGE, and you raise a boat on the flop or turn, so i honestly put you either on an AT, AJ type of hand, or air...

now had this board been say... 8dJh2s Ah Jc that J is more likely to be in your hand range and makes a more believable donk on a scare card... the 2 in this hand ISN'T a scare card at all... thus you are at a high risk of getting raised...
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DrivingDog
Old 11-16-2007, 05:13 PM #15 (permalink)  
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I thought the point of the river donk was not that you were representing a 2 but that you were afraid villian would check behind with JJ-KK, etc.
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euphoricism
Old 11-16-2007, 05:49 PM #16 (permalink)  
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obv. Theres nothing bluffy about it, its a valuebet line, and i used it with huge success at 5/10. By FAR, the vast majority of villains do not raise rivers without the nuts or near nuts.
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pokerfanatic
Old 11-16-2007, 09:11 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
obv. Theres nothing bluffy about it, its a valuebet line, and i used it with huge success at 5/10. By FAR, the vast majority of villains do not raise rivers without the nuts or near nuts.
5/10 is a huge difference then 0.1/0.2... i honestly think the line sucks but w/e make your own conclusions...
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euphoricism
Old 11-16-2007, 09:59 PM #18 (permalink)  
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name one fucking hand that a tagg 3 bets preflop that has a 2 in it...
dude, you need to read more carefully.
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pokerfanatic
Old 11-16-2007, 11:29 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by euphoricism
Quote:
name one fucking hand that a tagg 3 bets preflop that has a 2 in it...
dude, you need to read more carefully.
EDIT: if he calls the river with KK-TT he'd probably call the turn raise and river too, especially at 0.1/0.2...
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