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AQo flops inside SFD

  
 
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 11-02-2007, 05:07 AM     Post subject: AQo flops inside SFD #1 (permalink)  
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PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A.
4 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, MP2 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8, T, J (4 players)
SB checks, Hero...

It was a lively table. No real reads, just some numbers. SB was 68/18.2/1.86. MP2 was 37.5/8.3/4.33. Button was 90/12.5/1.67. All three went to SD about 33%.

I don't know how to judge this hand. I've got a draw to the 3rd-nut flush and a gutshot straight flush draw...and an overcard. Do I want the others in or out? My inclination is to keep them in and to think they're worried by the 3-suited board...and their high VP$IP numbers don't necessarily show they'll stick around postflop. (Button will!) OTOH a bet for value can't be far wrong.
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DrivingDog
Old 11-02-2007, 12:12 PM #2 (permalink)  
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This is why i don't raise more than two limpers with offsuit big cards preflop. If you just check your hand is nicely disguised and you can get paid off if you flop top pair, and if you whiff the flop you can get away cheaply. Try it, you'll like it.

As it is, it's pretty likely you're behind at this point but you have a decent draw. There's next to zero chance of getting everyone to fold with a bet, and MP2 is on your left and likes to play raise or fold judging by his AF. I'd probably check and call a single bet - if it gets bet and raised behind me I'd probably fold, thinking I could be up against the best hand and the best draw with maybe 3 outs and not knowing whether it's the two A or two Q outs that are good along with the 9c.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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snowboard_31
Old 11-02-2007, 03:26 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I dont think the PFR is that bad, considering is .10/.20 your hand has to be way ahead of eveyrone else's and just checking is pretty passive. You more than likely have an equity edge right from the start.

I agree c/c one bet for sure, you have the kings to the nut straight (and the Kc gives u the second nut flush), and 9's to a straight (9c giving you a straight flush) and any club to the 3nd nut flush.Definately discount your overcard outs as they make the board hella drawy.
1. Get a seat to their right
2. Steal blinds at will
3. ...
4. Profit
"It should be a crime to not bet if someone has checked to you twice."
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"If you can pinpoint a player's range, you can own his soul."
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DrivingDog
Old 11-02-2007, 05:33 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by snowboard_31
I dont think the PFR is that bad, considering is .10/.20 your hand has to be way ahead of eveyrone else's and just checking is pretty passive. You more than likely have an equity edge right from the start.
Point is not whether you're ahead preflop. Point is that you almost always need to improve to win vs. 3 opponents, and if you do you're less likely to get paid off. Let them think you have 8x when you bet the Q87 flop and take their money. If the flop comes K72 you'll be in a big bind as preflop aggressor and scratching your head.

Fnord and I have explicated this principle in previous posts. I just can't find them, have a look...Sklansky says pretty much the same thing though.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 11-02-2007, 06:34 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Hermann the Lombard
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Point is not whether you're ahead preflop. Point is that you almost always need to improve to win vs. 3 opponents, and if you do you're less likely to get paid off. ... Fnord and I have explicated this principle in previous posts. I just can't find them, have a look...Sklansky says pretty much the same thing though.
My first thought is "I have an equity edge, try to push some of them out to give me a better chance to win." Second thought is "they're already in for one bet, none of them will fold to a PFR." Prior to the first thought is "AQo...rustle, rustle...BB, unraised pot, Raise." Not too good to raise prior to thinking.

[Now if I improve to TP I think I want to force them out before they out-draw me.]

Anyway, I hadn't seen your posts or Fnord's about this principle. What sort of feedback have you gotten?
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arborman
Old 11-02-2007, 07:19 PM #6 (permalink)  
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I'm torn with what to do on the BB with bit offsuit broadway cards as well, especially unraised.

Looking back at my BB hands in Pokertracker, I've found hands like AQo and AJo to be more profitable when I check and disguise them than when I raise. It creates room for a checkraise if you hit, and lets me get away easily if it misses altogether. Maybe it's passive, but every other street you are in early position but the preflop raiser, which can be uncomfortable if you miss, and if you hit it is fairly obvious and thus not particularly profitable unless someone clings to (and misses) a draw.

The exception is when the only preflop limpers are button and SB - in which case a raise is in order. Open limping on the button is so often a sign of weak cards (weakness in general) that you have a strong chance of taking the pot on the flop by betting out, regardless of what hits.
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DrivingDog
Old 11-03-2007, 01:59 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Once more for the unitiated...big offsuit cards with 3 or more limpers in early position

Arguments for raising:
1) preflop equity advantage

Arguments for calling/checking:
1) disguises your hand, meaning you're more likely to get paid off if you hit
2) your oop
3) keeps pot small, making it unprofitable for weak draws
4) you'll miss the flop more often than not, and can get away cheaply if you choose
5) allows you lead out or c/r big hands depending on board and opponents
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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DrivingDog
Old 11-03-2007, 10:43 PM #8 (permalink)  
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e.g.,

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, Q.
UTG calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) J, A, 3 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 2 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, Button calls, SB folds.

River: (7 BB) 4 (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, Button calls.

Final Pot: 9 BB

button showed down J9. I'm pretty sure i got a lot more action by just checking preflop.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 11-05-2007, 03:43 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Hermann the Lombard
I notice that in the ITH charts AQo in the BB is "raise 1 or 2 limpers" so that is in accord with DD's analysis.

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A.
4 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, MP2 calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8, T, J (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, Button checks.

Turn: (4 BB) Q (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, Button folds, SB folds, Hero...

I have a bad feeling about this. Fold now or call & c/c?
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KoRnholio
Old 11-05-2007, 04:51 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Call and pray for an ace of clubs, maybe an offsuit K. He has a 9 here very often.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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DrivingDog
Old 11-05-2007, 09:47 PM #11 (permalink)  
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I would call here and c/f the river if you don't improve. If a club comes b/f.

Better line might be to c/c the turn (fold to two bets) and play the river the same way, or b/f the river if it's checked around on the turn.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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