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AQ 2nd pair, top kicker gets a surprise

  
 
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Hermann the Lombard
Old 01-04-2008, 07:52 PM     Post subject: AQ 2nd pair, top kicker gets a surprise #1 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 270
Hermann the Lombard
PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A.
5 folds, Button raises, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) K, Q, 2 (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, Button folds, SB 3-bets, Hero...

Button was 13.8/7.5/6.0(!) (80 hands)
SB was 38.3/2.1/0.67(flop AF) (47 hands)

I suspected that Button was stealing, PF, and thought I could get him to fold on the flop, isolating SB. Well, I got Button to fold but found that my calling station was very much alive. Should I drop it right here? I must be behind and I think I have to discount my Ace outs and even my Queen outs(to a possible set). Maybe I can give myself 4 outs...and I may have tied myself to the pot as I now have 14:1 odds.
Oh, no! Not another learning experience!
 
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snowboard_31
Old 01-05-2008, 05:45 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 206
snowboard_31
I think you can for sure call and take one card off to reevaluate the turn.
1. Get a seat to their right
2. Steal blinds at will
3. ...
4. Profit
"It should be a crime to not bet if someone has checked to you twice."
-soupie
"If you can pinpoint a player's range, you can own his soul."
-Bond18
 
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DrivingDog
Old 01-06-2008, 12:54 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 923
DrivingDog
I'm actually going to argue for a fold here.

I think this hand nicely illustrates the importance of reads. Here our opponenent is a very passive player. It's pretty unlikely he's leading out without TP or better and even more unlikely he's 3 betting without a very strong hand. So think of all the hands he might 3bet the flop with: AK, KQ, QQ, KK, AA, and look at how few outs we have against them.

KQ (6 hands) - we have 3 Ace outs
AK, AA (15 hands) - we have 2 Queen outs
KK, QQ (6 hands altogether) - we're drawing almost dead to runner runner AA.

That's 27 possible hands in his 3betting range with an average of <2 outs for us.

If we add KJ and KT to his three betting range (24 hands) , we can give ourselves about 4.5 outs (any card that improves us on the turn gives him a redraw to a straight or FH). That would make 51 possible hands with an average of about 3 outs for us.

This would probably be enough if our implied odds were good, but they're not. E.g., if an Ace comes on the turn he will probably just call down with KQ but he will keep jamming AA, KK, QQ.

It's interesting to compare this to how we might play this hand against an average player (capable of also 3betting any K and sometimes JT) or an aggressive player (capable of also 3betting middle pair or absolutely nothing). Obviously, in these cases our equity is much better and so at least seeing - and possibly raising - the turn (against an average player) and going to a showdown (against an aggy) make more sense.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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