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anyone call this river donkbet?

  
 
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DrivingDog
Old 09-19-2007, 09:24 PM     Post subject: anyone call this river donkbet? #1 (permalink)  
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CO is fairly standard TAG. SB is 60/10 minnow preflop, but approaches decent play postflop.

Even in a pot this big i'm thinking i can't possibly be good often enough to call here, especially with CO left to act behind me.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with , .
Hero raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, Button caps, SB calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (17 SB) , , (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets, Button folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10 BB) (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: (13 BB) (3 players)
SB bets, Hero ?

Final Pot: 15 BB
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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|~|ypermegachi
Old 09-19-2007, 09:40 PM #2 (permalink)  
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heh...no he can beat ace high.
 
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KoRnholio
Old 09-19-2007, 10:01 PM #3 (permalink)  
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donking into 2 players on the river means he has you both beat most likely.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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BennyLaRue
Old 09-19-2007, 10:59 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Fold it. Even if donko is bluffing, Mr. CO might not be kidding. At least one of them has you beat.

No cont-bet into the superuncoordinated flop?
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DrivingDog
Old 09-20-2007, 12:39 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
No cont-bet into the superuncoordinated flop?
I don't see anyone folding, i don't like getting raised with A high oop by someone who might or might not have a better hand, and i want to see the action behind me before i put any more money in the pot. I figure I'm more often than not drawing here after the action preflop and the cheaper i can draw the better.
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Jibalob
Old 09-20-2007, 08:50 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Ther is no way you can call that river in a 3-way pot IMO
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DrivingDog
Old 09-20-2007, 10:00 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Glad i'm not the only one who folds the best hand here.

River: (13 BB) (3 players)
SB bets, Hero folds, CO calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

Results in white below:
SB has Kc Ts (high card, king).
CO has Kd Qh (high card, king).
Outcome: CO wins 15 BB.


Kind of a sexy bluff for a minnow I thought. If I'm CO I might call getting 14:1 but in my position I just couldn't manage it.
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Jibalob
Old 09-20-2007, 10:12 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Oh well, like you say you could have been trapped between sb and CO on an aggressive river which would suck big time. Take a note and re-raise that mofo next time he donks a scare card.
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BennyLaRue
Old 09-20-2007, 01:05 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
No cont-bet into the superuncoordinated flop?
I don't see anyone folding, i don't like getting raised with A high oop by someone who might or might not have a better hand
But the CO did fold, despite 3-betting pre, and now you're playing out the hand essentially admitting you don't have it. If you get raised, then at least you know you're probably beat. But after this flop, you've got zero information. Too many knuckleheads at 2/4 like to build a big pot even larger by capping pre with suited aces or connectors, hoping to score a big draw. You can force them out on a board like this.

I like the cont bet here, even in ep. And I don't just say that because I saw the results.
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DrivingDog
Old 09-20-2007, 01:10 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
No cont-bet into the superuncoordinated flop?
I don't see anyone folding, i don't like getting raised with A high oop by someone who might or might not have a better hand
If you get raised, then at least you know you're probably beat.
I can see your point, but i doubt i know i'm behind if i get raised since someone else with overcards could be using their position to bully me and/or buy a free card (or even just knock out other overcards). That's my play in their spot. And once there's a 3bet and cap behind me on the flop I have to respect their raises on the flop. So i bet and get raised on the flop. Then I pretty much have to c/f any non A/K turn. I'd rather try to draw cheaply since i'm not going to showdown against >1 opp. without hitting my hand.

Or i bet and two or three people call. If i don't hit an A/K on the turn I'm in a bad spot again. Just don't like taking the lead in a fourway capped pot oop without thinking there's a good chance i'm ahead and/or i can get everyone to fold.
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Jibalob
Old 09-20-2007, 01:22 PM #11 (permalink)  
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IMHO C-betting a missed flop OOP into poor/loose opponents sucks
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Wait, this is .05/.10 and you got sexied, I can't believe that shit, limit must really be dying.[/quote]
 
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DrivingDog
Old 09-20-2007, 01:25 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Too many knuckleheads at 2/4 like to build a big pot even larger by capping pre with suited aces or connectors, hoping to score a big draw. You can force them out on a board like this.
I'm not interested in folding out a weaker suited Ace or connectors here. They're almost never going to beat me anyways with this flop and if a weaker Ace gets forced out that does me more harm than good.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on." (George Bush).
 
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BennyLaRue
Old 09-20-2007, 01:32 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jibalob
IMHO C-betting a missed flop OOP into poor/loose opponents sucks
I agree. OP said CO is standard TAG, SB is decent postflop.
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Jibalob
Old 09-20-2007, 01:37 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jibalob
IMHO C-betting a missed flop OOP into poor/loose opponents sucks
I agree. OP said CO is standard TAG, SB is decent postflop.
Sorry, getting HH's mixed up.
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BennyLaRue
Old 09-20-2007, 02:25 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
Quote:
Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
Too many knuckleheads at 2/4 like to build a big pot even larger by capping pre with suited aces or connectors, hoping to score a big draw. You can force them out on a board like this.
I'm not interested in folding out a weaker suited Ace or connectors here. They're almost never going to beat me anyways with this flop and if a weaker Ace gets forced out that does me more harm than good.
Difference in style, I suppose. I don't like drawing to overcards in ep with no other draw, generally, especially since allowing others to draw cheaply leads to gutshots, backdoor draws, turned sets and all that, which my drawn to pair can't beat. So, I'll show aggression early on a board like this and bail if someone shows he means it. If someone bluff raises me on the flop with AQ, nh, I guess he can have it.
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Jibalob
Old 09-20-2007, 02:37 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Having thought about this hand a bit more...

As played to the river - as I said above, I am pretty much never calling the river here without a good read that OPP likes to donk any scare card, although I would still think about folding

How you could have avoided the river spot - Cbet the flop. If sb is approaching decent postflop play as you stated perhaps leading the flop and turn would have been a better option, it is unlikely that CO would have raised you here with K-high and I would imagine any half-decent OPPS would just peel a card check/fold a blank turn. If you were going to call a bet on the flop and turn anyway you may aswell lead out on both streets and see what develops, if you are behind a raise from either OPP on the turn makes for an easy laydown.
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DrivingDog
Old 09-20-2007, 03:29 PM #17 (permalink)  
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It's easy to criticize a flop check based on what happened afterwards and what hands got revealed at showdown. But let's look at the information i had on the flop:

1) Can't really put CO on K high here since even KQs is a pretty loose 3betting hand to an UTG raise and he's not a loose player. 99+, AJs+, AQ+ is about it for a TAG I would think. I'm ahead of a minority of those hands (15/45 with 9 AK "ties') on this flop. Even if he does have K high overcards, he's not folding for one more bet in a huge pot, but he may raise. Either a call or raise from CO leaves me with a dilemma if i miss the turn.

2) Any sensible button is not capping without JJ+, AK, maybe AQs. I'm ahead of an even smaller minority of those hands (3/15 with 9 ties). (Obviously from the fold on the flop the button's preflop cap was not even remotely sensible but i didn't know that until he folded the flop )

3) SB is a minnow and pretty much a non-entity in my decision except inasmuch as he's reasonably likely to have an A or K in his hand or at least two overcards as well (see below).

I can't be bothered to do the math precisely taking into account mutually exclusive probabilities but it's reasonably likely I'm ahead of CO and button (never mind SB) a very small minority of the time (about 15/45 * 3/15 = 1/15) and am drawing to six outs or probably fewer (depending on how many other Aces and Kings are in their collective hands) much more often.

Given this, I'd rather fold this flop to a bet and a raise behind me than bet myself and have to decide whether to call a raise from someone who could either be getting aggro with overcards and position or (more likely) could be ahead. Since I'm almost sure to be on a draw on this flop I'm looking for cheap cards.

I'd be interested in hearing other opinions though...
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Jibalob
Old 09-20-2007, 04:05 PM #18 (permalink)  
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donk-beet the turn then?

Seriously, I dont see any other way you could have avoided this tough spot on the river without showing some aggression on previous streets.

The way I see it, checking the flop leaves you with 3 possible outcomes:

1)Checks Around (v. unlikely) - Hero probably donks blank turn, bets/raises A or K
2)CO Bets, sb and hero call - Hero calls for 1 bb on blank turn as played, c/rs A or K,
3)CO bets, sb raises, hero folds

or if you lead out
1) Hero bets, CO calls, sb calls, - Hero bet/folds blank turn, A or K turn is obv.
2) Hero bets, CO raises, sb folds, Hero calls - Hero check/folds blank turn, not sure on an A or K turn but definately go to sd
3) Hero bets, CO calls, sb raises, hero calls CO calls - raise A or K turn otherwise check/fold.
4) Hero bets, CO raises, sb calls, hero calls - very unlikely situation but check/fold the turn


now I have to get back to work but you can evaluate which of the two lists of outcomes you prefer.
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BennyLaRue
Old 09-20-2007, 05:04 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrivingDog
It's easy to criticize a flop check based on what happened afterwards and what hands got revealed at showdown.
Aye, but I mentioned the cont-bet before you showed down.

Quote:
But let's look at the information i had on the flop:

1) Can't really put CO on K high here since even KQs is a pretty loose 3betting hand to an UTG raise and he's not a loose player. 99+, AJs+, AQ+ is about it for a TAG I would think. I'm ahead of a minority of those hands (15/45 with 9 AK "ties') on this flop.

2) Any sensible button is not capping without JJ+, AK, maybe AQs. I'm ahead of an even smaller minority of those hands
If that's the case, if that's the range you put both these guys on, why plan to c/c down to a draw that might be dominated?

Here's what Pokerstove thinks of your hand against those ranges and the SB being nitty.

Code:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 152,654,480  games     3.916 secs    38,982,247  games/sec

Board: 4h 2c 8s
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	13.181%  	08.38% 	04.80% 	      12799855 	  7321974.83   { AcKs }
Hand 1: 	27.699%  	25.66% 	02.04% 	      39163651 	  3119947.17   { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 	40.033%  	36.17% 	03.86% 	      55222215 	  5889210.67   { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 3: 	19.087%  	18.52% 	00.57% 	      28267270 	   870356.33   { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Draws to overcards only are extremely tough hands to play. If you play on, it's probably going to cost you about 1.5BB - 2BB to give this hand a good run no matter what strategy you take. Jibalob outlined the options well. My preference is to get those 1.5BB - 2BB in aggressively since forcing folds gives me another way to win that the passive play does not.
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DrivingDog
Old 09-20-2007, 05:18 PM #20 (permalink)  
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ah well you may have been right in this case. You can't really argue that betting is better than calling when you're drawing fairly thin imo.

I'm not changing your mind and your not changing mine, which is why i want to hear what others think...
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