Originally Posted by thenonsequitur

And also, against an opponent that can fold a weak pair, I semibluff this turn.

Originally Posted by chardrian

If you get reraised can/should you drop this?

I believe one of my leaks is the inability to lay a good hand down on the river. I get into the "all he needs to do is bluff 1 out of 10 (or 8 or whatever it may be) times for my call to be ok here" thinking.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

I think thats spewage. See Fnord's "reasons why you suck" thread. I believe it is titled "raising for a free card but then not taking it."

Originally Posted by outphase

a "sneaky" KT plays very similar to this in order to c/r the turn.

Originally Posted by euphoricism

If you can read his hand so precisely as to say "He leads the flop with top two pair, hoping to be raised so that the can check raise the turn" you are an absolute pro and should be destroying the 4000/8000 game.

Hell he might have flopped a set here too.

Take your lumps. You raised for a free card, now you dont want to use it? Then why raise, you should fold on the flop.

Thats silly, IMO.

Originally Posted by ihategnomes

If we cant define a range against villian I dont see how we can think A.) He will call the raise, if hes bluffing he will fold and B.) If he calls, how often are we ahead.

Originally Posted by midas06

What range do you put a random on if he donks the flop 3 handed, out of position, not being the pf raisor?

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Lets put it this way:

He bets flop, we raise
We hit an A on the turn
he checks we bet he calls
River is a blank
are you now checking behind?

Originally Posted by euphoricism

You all seem to think he has a monster and are ass scared of a checkraise.

Originally Posted by euphoricism

I think he has like K7 or so. Buncha weak tighties

Originally Posted by euphoricism

(A call isn't THAT bad, and I wouldn't blame you, but I still think its leaving some money on the table. Do you just call with AQ, AJ?)

Originally Posted by ihategnomes

If you can give me a range of villian I might back off, but untill you can there is no way you can raise that river without a read or without a range.

Originally Posted by euphoricism

B) He's leading the river because he sucks at poker. Maybe its just my mindset, maybe I'm the "I say he sucks until he proves otherwise" rather than the converse. Lets look at the mere fact that he's in the SB and called preflop. As you said, KT should threebet. K5 should threebet or fold. So immediately we have to say, "This guy is no expert, and probably not a thinking player."

Originally Posted by euphoricism

C) He calls with a K very very often.

Originally Posted by euphoricism

But I think your estimate of 50% calling with a hand we beat is a bit on the low side.

Originally Posted by euphoricism

He could have QJ (that, by his play, appears to be my biggest worry and is the only thing inching me toward a call.)

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

When the opponent checks behind the turn, you are almost 100% correct to auto-bet that river with any pair.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Villain will not 3 bet a river raise without the complete nuts
...
I had a guy bet/3bet me with Ace high on the river last night, they're not good.

Originally Posted by koolmoe

Ahem.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

If your gut says he has K or a T, then why wouldnt you raise?

Originally Posted by koolmoe

Of course.

What if your gut says he has QJ? A5? 55? KT? Air?
What if you're not 100% sure he'd lead the river with Kx when the A falls?

What if you recognize that all these things are possibilities?

Some how you have to reconcile this offline to help your decision process at the table.

That's all I am talking about.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Even still, the more possibilities he has, the more likely you should raise right?

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 73.6147 % 73.37% 00.27% { Ac6c }
Hand 2: 26.3853 % 26.13% 00.27% { 22+, A5s+, K5s+, QTs+, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, Qc6c, Q5s, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 85s, 75s, 65s, A8o+, A3o, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T7o+, 75o, 65o, 53o+ }

Originally Posted by koolmoe

If you assume that you are ahead 75% of the time and get three bet 50% of the time that you are behind, he has to call your river raise 50% of the time to make the raise 0 EV.

What percentage of those hands you have listed above will he call with?

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Theyre stupid enough to bet their King and then say to themselves "bastard sucked out on me! #$%$# river!!"

Originally Posted by iopq

not if they are passive
and if they're not passive then they 3 bet the flop with the king OR at least bet the turn

a king is a possibility, but not likely here


what you really don't want is to get 3bet here by the straight
then you cry

what will you do if you get 3-bet?

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Fold. There is nothing you beat.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

I had a guy bet/3bet me with Ace high on the river last night, they're not good.

Originally Posted by euphoricism

What can he possible raise here that you beat? A2? I might call just to see what he's got.

Originally Posted by koolmoe

If I am thinking of folding to a three-bet, I vastly prefer to pass up the very thin (if any) value associated with a raise for the sake of avoiding a huge error like folding the best hand in a big pot for one more bet.
...

I think you're making a mistake if you don't show your hand down.

Originally Posted by littleogre

Personally i've always thought it was weak and bad poker. To raise made hand at the river then fold to a reraise. If i am not sure of my hand i will check call. The only time i would raise fold would be if my raise was a bluff. This is assuming the pot is heads up at the river.