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Another value bet problem.

  
 
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dsaxton
Old 10-18-2006, 10:01 PM     Post subject: Another value bet problem. #1 (permalink)  
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This guy seems to think I'm a maniac and has been 3-betting my button raises with unusual frequency. Also, he'd made a pretty loose call-down with 8-8 after I'd raised preflop from the small blind and bet every street after the flop came K high (I had 3-3 and backdoored a straight, which might've tilted him a bit).

Given this history, do you think I can value bet this river? What type of hand can we put him on?

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, T.
2 folds, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero caps, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 8, J, 6 (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (8.50 BB) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ???
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elipsesjeff
Old 10-18-2006, 11:11 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 If villain will 3bet you on the flop here with TP or better, definately bet the river. You might not be good EVERY time but I think you are good more than enough to make it.

Also, his 3bets to your button raises maybe nothing more than steal defense against your known loose steal percentage.


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StinkyBeaver
Old 10-19-2006, 10:01 AM #3 (permalink)  
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hard to put him on a range aye. I'm very splitted here but you can bet only if you'll fold to a raise. I don't like to put in two bets if villian goes tricky with us.
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StinkyBeaver
Old 10-19-2006, 12:19 PM #4 (permalink)  
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The real question is: What does villian 3 bet.?

Ok his range is probably huge as you have been out there battling a couple of times.

What does he think you caps..?

This also defines his range as the last question is, what will viliian call on the river, that we beat after we have capped preflop and raised flop.?

As I see it 99 will play this way maybe 77 will call river aswell, but after that we are looking at better T
s and Jacks and QQ. AA and KK will put in more action.

I understand that villian might have taken AK and AQ to river however I doubt he'll pay off with these and thus they are unrelevant.

I can only see 2 maybe 3 holdings that will pay off your river bet and thus this is not a value bet IMO
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dsaxton
Old 10-19-2006, 02:47 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Also, is this preflop cap spewing? I knew he was 3-betting with marginal hands, and I knew I was at least calling, so I decided to represent a strong hand and cap the betting since I had position. I also thought it might help contribute to a loose image if I ended up showing the hand down.
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elipsesjeff
Old 10-19-2006, 04:53 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
Also, is this preflop cap spewing? I knew he was 3-betting with marginal hands, and I knew I was at least calling, so I decided to represent a strong hand and cap the betting since I had position. I also thought it might help contribute to a loose image if I ended up showing the hand down.
It definately isn't my default play. These players aren't paying as much attention to you as you think they are. It's more likely a better hand than yours and I wouldn't normally cap against most opponents. Now, if you're up against a good TAG you can do this for metagame issues. Outside of that, I'm not interested.

I didnt see the preflop cap here the first time through. You cap and he still leads into you? That's usually better than AK. Given his actions I don't think you can value bet this river.


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dsaxton
Old 10-19-2006, 05:25 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
Also, is this preflop cap spewing? I knew he was 3-betting with marginal hands, and I knew I was at least calling, so I decided to represent a strong hand and cap the betting since I had position. I also thought it might help contribute to a loose image if I ended up showing the hand down.
It definately isn't my default play. These players aren't paying as much attention to you as you think they are. It's more likely a better hand than yours and I wouldn't normally cap against most opponents. Now, if you're up against a good TAG you can do this for metagame issues. Outside of that, I'm not interested.

I didnt see the preflop cap here the first time through. You cap and he still leads into you? That's usually better than AK. Given his actions I don't think you can value bet this river.
For what it's worth, he ended up having A-8, and his preflop lead was a bizarre idiosyncrasy of his style. No matter how much strength you showed preflop, he would donkbet any pair on the flop. He did this later from the big blind when I button-raised, the small blind 3-bet, he called, I capped, and they both called. The flop came without a high card and he donkbet with 6-6.

After playing with this guy for a while afterwards, I realized that he was a pretty lame calling station postflop, so there was really no point in representing a strong hand preflop.
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