Originally Posted by bigspenda73

**quick note, it's 4:30AM and my math could be way off, I'm on my 5th diet Dr. Pepper of the night**

I think the math might say to c/r even though he is passive.

Combinatorially the range of TT+,AQs+,AKo has 45 combinations in it. However, let's assume he plays QQ+ more aggressively, leaving 13 less combos, or 32 total combinations. Let's say on the end he'll always just call with TT/JJ and 50% of his AK combos, that's 20 combinations of hands, or about 62.5% of the hands in his range

You bet, he calls 62.5% of the time, you win .625*1=.625BB

Now, let's say you check this river, he's more than likely going to bet his TT/JJ hands, and could even bet his bluffs. He will also bet/call the TT/JJ hands.

Let's say 75% of the time he bet/calls with TT/JJ (checking them back the other 25% of the time) and bet/folds his bluffs 20% of the time. That means out of his possible 32 combos he's betting 9 of the 12 JJ/TT combos and 5 combos of bluffs/ridic. thin value bet (AK). Therefore

9 of 32 times we win 2 bets when we go for c/r
5 of 32 times we win 1 bet when we go for c/r (and could possibly win another bet if he bet/calls AK somehow)

.28125*2=.5625
.15625*1=.15625

Together we make .71875 bets when we go for a c/r and only .625BBs when we bet the river.

There are more scenarios, but in general I think people might be over-estimating his river-calling range and frankly I think his betting range could be wider than 50%.

(k honestly at first glance I was gonna say bet b/c your opponent is passive however I wanted to stir the pot a bit)

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Combinatorially the range of TT+,AQs+,AKo has 45 combinations in it. However, let's assume he plays QQ+ more aggressively, leaving 13 less combos, or 32 total combinations. Let's say on the end he'll always just call with TT/JJ and 50% of his AK combos, that's 20 combinations of hands, or about 62.5% of the hands in his range

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

There is a lot in this paragraph that is incorrect. I'll let others try and figure out what it is and how it affects the math but using these % will grossly misrepresent the rest of the numbers.

Also, villain will be calling a bet on this river at least 80% of the time.

Originally Posted by asdpikas

yeah, it doesnt add up
if QQ+ we rule out
TT/JJ just call
50% of AK combos is not 20, especially when we hold 2 aces

villain could be dealt:

AA 1way
KK 6ways
QQ 6ways
JJ 6ways
TT 6ways
AK 8ways
AQs 2ways

for a total of 35 combos

Originally Posted by Chopper

fyp's in bold.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Hey, at least I got the topic going

I never said I play this silly game anymore (outside of 8game and HORSE).

Originally Posted by asdpikas

I guess this kind of calculations are useful when they bring some unexpected results that actually change your mind regarding what you, until then, assumed to be the correct plays.

Originally Posted by asdpikas

You should! It is quite a profitable proposition nowadays, imo!

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

5ptbb/100 at 200nl is winning $200 every 1k hands, that's running 2BB/100 at $5/$10LHE. I'd have to look at the rake structure for $5/10 nowadays and how many more FPPs you'll accumulate than $200nl (I would assume more at LHE). I will definitely concede that 5/10 is A LOT harder than 200nl to win $200 every 1k hands.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Of the 35 combos, KK would have raised on earlier street and QQ 50% of the time, but QQ will also bet this river 100% of the time when checked to. TT-JJ will bet this river also probably 50% of the time.

That takes the 35 combos down to 26 (35-6-3). Of those 26, 9 will bet (3 for QQ and 6 for TT/JJ).

Of those 26, 22 will call river bet (I think AK will call at least 75% here but AQs will fold). EV of river bet= .846

Of those 26, 9 will bet the other 15 will check, so the EV of a checkraise = 9*2/26 = .69

In order for a check/raise to be as EV as the lead then our opponent will have to value bet JJ 5/6 times when checked to in this situation, 6/6 and we'll show a profit.

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

But back to my own line: It seems like a fairly marginal decision whether I lead out or c/r the river. My sense is that the best idea is to do one thing some of the time and the other some of the time just to mix it up and keep your opponents guessing. I want to try to identify some more spots like this.

Originally Posted by Chopper

i disagree here, asp.

NL is FAR more profitable to some players. however, LHE is a bit more profitable.....for me.

a friend of mine plays 200nl and carries a 5 ptbb/100 over a 100k sample, plus stars nova bonus system. he couldnt make more playing 5/10 LHE.

i think it largely depends on OUR skill levels, and where we have the bigger edge. mine just happens to be at limit since i dont work as diligently on my game. oh.....and since frist shut out the influx of fish, although the game was tightening up anyway...i just like to blame frist.

Originally Posted by DrivingDog

I doubt this particular villian is worried about QQ+ when I check the river, but who knows.

In general though, if villian is going to check behind an overpair on the river he will be saving me a lot of money when I have AK/AQ because I'm not folding either to one more bet in a HU pot this size.