Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Well, i wouldn't in the hand with either two first off.

The J9 hand you would definately bet out here. QJ you check behind.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

Why? what's the difference?

I probably don't call preflop with either, but the call with JQs is good if you think the blinds will come along.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

Why? what's the difference?

I probably don't call preflop with either, but the call with JQs is good if you think the blinds will come along.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

I think the issue would then be that there is a tradeoff between the increase in equity that the bet offers, and the immediate value gained from the bet. If you gain pot equity by betting, then you lose value on the flop (your bet doesn't get sufficient callers to yield a profit), and if you do get full value, then you don't gain equity. Wouldn't these two things tend to have a cancelling effect in terms of profitability?

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

Put simply, the EV for a bet is about 0. (and may be as high as 1sb)
The EV for a check is 0.

The bet, however, gives you a much better chance of winning the pot.

We also don't want to check and have to fold to a turn bet that may be a steal.

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

2OC outs probably not clean I’m guessing you have 1OC out... with a GSD and a BD FD you're looking at 3 outs for OC, 4 for the gut shot, and 1 for a BD making about 8 outs total...

where if the flop was 9T4 you would have 8 SD outs 3 OC outs (maybe), and 1 BD out... so you have 12 outs... Ummm I think I would rather be value betting against this large field and if I have to put 2bets in or more on a 12 outer then the 8, I don't think you have much OC power in this situation... so i think you are over valuing that portion of the draw here...

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Demi posted this in Irc so while i dont belong here i'll post anyway.
I think betting the flop is +ev. If we get check raised then call and are HU on the turn then we are only ~3% odds for drawing to one clean overcard and the gutshot. Tis changes if we assume both overcards are clean when we get HU on the turn assuming check raiser has a pair here.
Making the pot bigger by betting increases the chance to draw to a better hand.
As pionted out i agree we get little fold equity here but bulding a pot with nothing but a draw to allow us to draw to that draw with odds later in the pot is possibly slightly +ev?
I think i'd bet here and hope to take two other callers or get check raised in which case the odds of calling on the turn drawing to one over and the gutshot improve or are just about there if we get 3 in the pot on the turn.

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

Ok, I think we have come to the conclusion that 1/2 of us bet and 1/2 of us check, with no real solid proof of either or great topic...

"No your wrong"... "No you are"... Until I see exact math on each then nothing can be determined…

Originally Posted by dsaxton

I think the difference between checking and betting is probably +/- .001 BB's anyways. I think most questions in poker are not terribly difficult to answer. Usually when there's some sort of dispute, it's because two alternatives have roughly the same result.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Perhaps, but betting also causes an immediate loss of 1 SB, while checking doesn't require any loss.

And I don't think that a play can be justified strictly in terms of its increasing the probability of winning the pot. Raising 2-7 offsuit preflop increases your chances of winning the pot, but it's the loss that's incurred whenever you don't that makes this unprofitable.

Originally Posted by pokerfanatic

Until I see exact math on each then nothing can be determined…

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Easy raise. The obvious read is that the opponent has a pocket pair, and if its 44, 88, TT, QQ, KK, or AA, you'll get threebet here and can let it go pretty easily.

By calling we learn nothing about your opponents hand. In 6max if you're torn between calling and raising, defaulting to a raise is rarely a bad idea.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

The point I am trying to make is that when you have a bet that on its own is only barely +EV, but it has the added advantage of increasing your chance of winning, it is correct to bet.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

1)We have a gutshot straight to the nuts, a back door flush draw and 2 overcards. The straight draw (4 outs) alone gives us 16.5% equity. Add in the BD flush and overs (discounted) and our equity here is somewhere above 20%. This is important because it means we are not really losing much on a bet into a field of 4 opponents.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

2) The possibility of a free turn card is a consideration and added benefit. It probably alone makes up for the flop bet being a little -EV in terms of value taken alone.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

3) If one of our opponents does check/raise it's not necessarily a bad thing at all. I think most of the time a TAG opponent flops two pair or a set in this situation they would simply lead out and hope to 3-bet. (feel free to argue this point) So a check/raise is most likely a one pair hand and this check/raise makes it pretty difficult even in a big pot for a lot of broadway hands to call. This can be very good for our QJ, even though we are giving up some now on the flop by putting in 1 BB. Our equity may have actually just went way up.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

4) Most importantly: (and often underestimated)... If we can "clean up" just one out our equity just increases by about 4%. So even though it's unlikely overcards fold for one bet, it's also unlikely that anyone who folds isn't sacrificing some equity and therefore directly increasing our equity.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

If we lose a little money on the flop bet in terms of immediate equity, it isn't much and it's certainly not the entire SB since it's impossible to not to be drawing live.

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

Now, a good counterargument to this is something I haven't seen mentioned. That is, by betting you're making a big pot even bigger when you'll likely get several callers and thereby actually tying them to the pot. So, it's plausible that in certain situations that the flop bet would actually decrease your equity. However, I think it's somewhat of a rare occurance and overall the >5% estimate is probably pretty close.