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Analyzing a hand

  
 
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chardrian
Old 08-31-2006, 03:24 PM     Post subject: Analyzing a hand #1 (permalink)  
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Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, Q.
1 fold, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls.

I had no stats or reads on any opponent - this was my fourth hand at the table. The only real discussion I see preflop is putting both my opps on ranges. What is the button 3 betting with? And what is the Big Blind coldcalling with?

Flop: (9.50 SB) 9, 8, 3 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB calls, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, BB folds, Hero calls.

I guess I could have check/raised here but with both the gutshot, flush draws and possible overs I like to lead out and see where I am at. Once the button caps me what range do you put him on?

Turn: (9.75 BB) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

I hit my overcard but since I was capped on the flop and 3 bet preflop I really didn't think I was ahead of anything except maybe for TT or AhKh. His check on the turn was strange though. What does this mean?

River: (9.75 BB) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River's a blank. So I think I should have led out. Any other comments/critiques qould be helpful.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB
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bencathers
Old 08-31-2006, 04:14 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I like the turn check. If you lead out and are raised, you know where you stand (and river becomes a check/call or check/fold if you have a solid read)..

If you lead out on the turn and are smooth called, it makes the river play much more read dependent (do you lead out the river and check/call or check/fold a raise?)...

however as soon as they check the turn I'm betting that river and calling any raise
Dealer: bencathers has two pair, Aces and Deuces
Dealer: Tbags has two pair, Kings and Jacks
Dealer: Tbags finished the tournament in 256th place
Tbags [observer]: another scumbag gets there on this site lol
 
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elipsesjeff
Old 08-31-2006, 04:38 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I don't like your 3bet on the flop that much, as you are really building a pot you are most likely behind to. I could maybe see a stop and go here on the turn, preventing him for a free card but either way, the money is the same so you wouldn't have gotten any more less.

You already know my thoughts on the hand but as soon as he checks the turn it becomes correct to bet any pair on the river as long as the river doesn't bring an Ace or a King.


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chardrian
Old 08-31-2006, 06:19 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Yeah - river was obviously a mistake. I am surprised that you advocate a call on that flop jeff.

I guess it is possible I am behind to a higher flush draw, but I still count my outs here as 12 (9 for the flush, 3 for the str8 - there would be fewer if we were actually up against a set or a hand like AhKh but not that many less).

I can understand smooth calling the raise heads-up (although I still would usually 3-bet I think). But with the BB coldcalling both preflop and now on this flop I think I have to 3 bet there for value. I am over a 40% favorite and have two opps. Is my thought process wrong here? (it very well might be).
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NWNewell
Old 08-31-2006, 06:57 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I don't hate the Flop 3-bet. But i don't know that I like it that much either. To me, it is kind of iffy.

I guess it depends on your ability to could put him on any kind or range and evaluate the possibility of him having a big pocket pair. And whether you think the BB will stay in

If your fairly sure he has a big pocket pair and pairing your J or Q is no good and you are at all uncertain that the BB will stay in, then you definitely want to call so the Button cannot 3-bet and ensure the BB stays in. Calling ensures the BB will stay in and give you better EV (if he folds to your raise and button cap, that will lower your EV... still possitive, but not as possitive if you just called and kept the BB in).

If you think he would 3-bet with a wide range of hands, would have something other than a big pocket pair a large percentage of the time (and your J or Q are good for maybe 2+ effective outs), then I don't have any problem with the 3-bet (even if you are unsure about the BB). If the BB calls, great... mo' money, mo' money... if he folds, that's fine too... one less person that could re-draw the river when you make good with hitting a pair on the river.

However, with any level of uncertanty or in a close situation (as you indicated was the case with this hand), I think I would lean towards calling and letting the BB call. You figure you probably need to hit a straight or flush to when, and you definitely want the BB continue playing with you and the button.

At least that is my 'poor skilled, ameture" take on the flop.

PS Have no problem with the turn. Would like to bet the river, but I would be hesitant too... but think betting is the right thing to do.
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elipsesjeff
Old 08-31-2006, 08:32 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 well, i forgot that BB was in the, as long as he is in I pump it as well.


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midas06
Old 08-31-2006, 11:51 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I think I pump this flop always with the gutshot sf draw. Is that a bad thing?
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elipsesjeff
Old 09-01-2006, 12:15 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 Given villain's range, it depends. It's not THAT horrible, but if your opponent wont fold and has an overpair, its not +EV


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midas06
Old 09-01-2006, 12:41 AM #9 (permalink)  
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but overpairs are only part of his range
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NWNewell
Old 09-01-2006, 12:59 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Depending on his 3-bet range, he could easilly have an overpair, trips, or a hand like AQs or KJs that causes your J & Q to be dirty....

If that is the case, pumping with the button and driving out the BB will reduce your EV.

I'm a typical 16-17%PFR (don't deviate much except for occationally with button steals and the rare "getting out of hand").

I typically 3-bet with AA-88, AKs-ATs, AK, AQ,KQs, KJs, KQ. That's about 8%. If I was the 3-bettor, pairing your Jack or Queen would only make 2nd best with 12 of 17 possible hands I might have. And with the rest of the 17 hands I have a chance to redraw. So, unless the 3-better is a 25%+ preflop raiser, I would want to keep the BB in.
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